Why New Zealand Rugby is up against it to produce a World Cup-winning All Black side in 2023
The All Blacks are no longer Rugby World Cup holders after eight long years of dominance, both at the tournament and in between it with a 10-year run as the world’s number one side.
The bronze medal finish on the surface suggests the All Blacks have fallen back to the pack somewhat, but it doesn’t mean they are going to be losing regularly in the near future.
Putting too much weight on one semi-final finish during a knockout tournament that is unpredictable and requires a degree of luck and timing is folly.
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However, what should concern New Zealand Rugby more is the long-term results of the under-20 side that suggest World Cup wins in the future are going to be even harder to come by than it was this year.
Results at this youth level suggested this type of World Cup-result was coming in either 2023 or 2027. Instead, it is here one tournament earlier. The national pipeline has failed to maintain a level of dominance held by the senior All Blacks side for some time.
After winning the first four editions of the annual under-20 tournament up to 2011 in dominant fashion, often blitzing finals by 20+ points, New Zealand has claimed two titles in eight years.
In more recent years, the side has placed as low as fifth (2016) and seventh (2019), both worst-ever results at the time.
One could argue the format of the under-20 championships is unforgiving with one pool loss ending any hopes of winning.
But that is exactly the point of the Rugby World Cup. It is tournament rugby that is predicated on a win-or-go-home finals format.
At the World under-20 Championships, there are no easy pool games against developing or largely amateur nations like Canada or Namibia. It is also hard to argue that other top nations haven’t caught up when it comes to youth pathways and development systems.
The under-20 team is supposed to be the elite players of each annual crop and the pipeline of the All Blacks of tomorrow. One-off blemishes wouldn’t suggest much, over eight years it paints a clearer picture.
The New Zealand system now has to play catch-up in terms of the development of athletes, players and squads to deliver World Cup wins based on under-20 results since 2012. Success at the 2023 event in France will largely depend on how the under-20 players from this decade develop, most of whom weren’t the best in the world in their age group.
The golden crop of 2011 that includes the likes of Beauden Barrett, Brodie Retallick, Sam Cane and Codie Taylor is going to need some help.
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No doubt there will be, with stars like Damian McKenzie (2014) and Richie Mo’unga (2014), but there is a concerning lack of progression from the early under-20 sides of this decade to provide the depth that World Cup-winning squads need.
The 2012 squad produced only two All Black forwards, Ofa Tu’ungafasi and Nathan Harris, the latter considered a fourth-string hooker and surplus to requirements for the World Cup, while Jordan Taufua was never capped. Only Bryn Hall and Marty McKenzie remain on New Zealand Super Rugby teams from the backs.
The 2013 squad brought through some gems in Ardie Savea and Scott Barrett, and solid prospects in Jackson Hemopo and Patrick Tuipulotu for a total of four All Blacks.
Hemopo has gone to Japan while Tuipulotu has re-signed until the end of 2020 and still is a flight risk before 2023. Savea is world-class and absolutely a critical retention for NZR after his contract expires in 2021, as is Barrett in 2020.
Not one member of the backs from the 2013 squad has gone on to play for the All Blacks and only Michael Collins and Tei Walden remain on Super Rugby squads.
From the 2014 side, just one forward has progressed to the All Blacks five years later in Atu Moli, while in the backs Damian McKenzie, Richie Mo’unga and Anton Lienert-Brown are the shining lights.
In Scott Robertson’s 2015 title-winning side, no new forwards have been capped outside of Moli, while only one further back, Jack Goodhue, has become a regular All Black.
The class of 2016 has offered one All Black from the backs so far, Jordie Barrett, while Asafo Aumua, Luke Jacobson and Dalton Papalii, who all repeated in the champion 2017 side, are capped forward prospects.
Jacobson’s early concussion issues present concerns over his longevity and Aumua hasn’t been able to nail down the starting hooker position at the Hurricanes as yet despite his immense talent.
From the title-winning 2017 side that thumped England, no new forwards have been capped while Brayden Ennor is the sole back. Will Jordan can’t be far away as another standout from that group. The announcement of the Super Rugby squads next week will reveal how many more from the under-20 sides of 2017, 2018 and 2019 are progressing.
It could be argued that over this time it was as hard as ever to crack the All Blacks during their back-to-back World Cup titles, which has considerable merit. However, many of these under-20 sides are littered with players who failed to progress enough to make impressionable careers out of Super Rugby.
Based on what is bubbling below the surface at under-20 level, it will be one of the greatest ever achievements for New Zealand Rugby to build a World Champion All Blacks’ side again in 2023. Of course, they can do it, but expectations need to be reset following the exit at the hands of England.
The results at under-20 level, along with the lack of progression afterward, are going to become due at some point. The All Blacks will still be strong over this next cycle but to win Rugby World Cups everything has to go right. Having world-class depth is also an insurance policy for a few unforeseen hiccups, of which just one can derail four years of work when it counts.
Hansen’s long-running tenure was an undoubted success, but results are never down to one man. Every All Black developed is the result of years of work, from school-level up, by many hard-working people in the country.
And that famed production line hasn’t been producing as much talent that kicks on lately. Combined with ever-building pressure to retain the ones that do, a drain on top coaching talent in New Zealand, international rugby is likely going to be more competitive than ever between the top four to five sides over the next few years.
And winning a knockout tournament will be harder than ever before by 2023.
Sonny Bill Williams joins the Toronto Wolfpack:
Comments on RugbyPass
Beautiful shot from Finau, end of story. Gutted for Shaun Stevenson though.
4 Go to commentsThe Chiefs definitely didn’t win ugly. They had the superior scrum, a dominant lineout, and their defence was excellent once the Waratahs scored their two tries (thanks to some lucky refereeing calls mind you). They put pressure on the Waratahs lineout throughout the game, and the mind boggles as to why the referee did not award a yellow card or a penalty try against the Waratahs for repeated scrum infringements on their own try line before Narawa’s first try. And the Chiefs were slick with their passing and running angles on attack. It was a dominant performance all round, even with many questionable refereeing decisions.
1 Go to commentsWasnt late. Ref 2 assistants andTMO all saw it so who are you to say it was?
4 Go to commentsAre the Brumbies playing the Blues twice in a row?
4 Go to commentsBig difference from the Saders. Forwards really muscled up and laid a solid platform. Scooter brought some steel and I liked the loosie combination. Newell has been rather disappointing this season but stepped up big time - happy also to see Franks dot down. He should do that more often! Reihana had a good game and there seems to be more flair and invention with him in the saddle. McNicoll plays well from the back and is reliable plus inventive when he joins the line. Keep it up chaps!
3 Go to comments🤦♂️🤣 who cares who’s the best . All I know is the All Blacks have the star coach but have few star players now …
30 Go to commentsJe suis sûr que Farrell est impatient de jouer avec Lopez et Machenaud et d’être entraîné par Collazo… 🤭
1 Go to commentsAn on field red (aka a full red) in SRP must surely carry a bigger suspension than a red card given by the bunker as that carries a 20 minute team punishment. Had Damon Murphy abdicated his responsibility as a ref and issued both Drua players a yellow, which would have been upgraded to a 20 minute red by the bunker, that would have killed Australia and New Zealand’s push for the 20 minute red to be trialled globally from July this year.
11 Go to commentsEver so often you all post a Danny Care story that isn’t the announcement that he has finally re-signed for one more, victory tour season at Quins and I’m just like, “well you fooled me again!” My absolute favorite player ever, we need to make his final year at the Stoop (and Twickers) official already. I know he supposedly snubbed France but I won’t feel better until he signs.
1 Go to commentslate hit what late hit it wasn’t at all late and can clearly see he was committed before the tackle
4 Go to commentsChristian Lio -Willies 2 try perfomance was a standout. As was captain Scott Barrett. Up front was where the boys won it.They are a great team and players. Fantastic Crusaders , you can keep going.
3 Go to commentsI don't know how the locals feel about that? I guess if you call yourselves the Worcester Wasps that might be appease. But really we need more teams in the Premiership in my view so they are not padding it out as they are at the moment. It might curtail so many players going abroad as well
5 Go to commentsNZ 😭😭😭is certainly rivaling England for best whingers cup!😭😭😭 !!!
30 Go to commentsYup. New Zealand won 3 out of 10 world cups played. SA 4 out of 8 attempts 30 Vs 50 per cent.🤔🤔
30 Go to commentsShould've done this years ago. Change Saturday kick off times to around 11am. Up and off and back home before 3pm, limit travel time too. Allows players to actually do something else with their Saturday that's family oriented or being rugby fans they could ‘watch’ pro rugby. Increases crowds etc. How can anyone that enjoys grassroots and pro rugby have to choose between the two on Saturdays?
9 Go to commentsI bet he inspired those supporters just as much.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
30 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
9 Go to comments