Why Ian Foster should be, and will be, the next All Blacks coach
When next year’s Rugby World Cup comes to a conclusion, so too will Steve Hansen’s current contract as All Blacks head coach.
Hansen has been involved in the All Blacks coaching group since he returned to the country from a stint in Wales in 2004. When Graham Henry’s role as head coach came to an end upon securing New Zealand’s second World Cup in 2011, Hansen stepped into the head coach role. What’s followed has been one of the most successful coaching stretches of all time – in any sport.
Under Hansen’s almost century of test matches as head coach, the All Blacks have won just short of 90% of their matches. The only previous All Blacks coaches who have bested that win rate were only in the role for 14 matches at the most – and that was way back in the sixties.
Speculation has been rife concerning who will take over from Hansen in 2020. Joe Schmidt, one of the early favourites for the role, has announced that he will step down from all forms of coaching after taking Ireland to the World Cup next year (though many hope that this is only a temporary spell from the game). Warren Gatland, who has just as many detractors as supporters, will also finish up with Wales after 2019’s showpiece tournament and will likely put his name in the hat. Other potential coaches, such as Dave Rennie and Vern Cotter, might need to spend a bit of time negotiating their way out of their current contracts with their European clubs but could also come into the picture.
If recent practice is anything to go by, however, then the next New Zealand coach is likely already in the country – and probably already in the All Blacks coaching set up.
Providing that Hansen himself doesn’t reapply for the role (he was originally contracted to finish with the team after last year’s British and Irish Lions tour but re-contracted until the end of 2019), then it’s fair to say that the man with the greatest chance of securing the job is his current second in command, Ian Foster.
When Henry completed his term with the All Blacks at the end of 2011, the NZRU accepted applications from around the world. It’s widely understood that both Cotter and Schmidt applied for the role then (perhaps as head and assistant), but it was Hansen who came out on top.
Hansen’s coaching resume, prior to joining the All Blacks, wasn’t exactly glittering with achievements. The ex-midfielder had secured a couple of NPC titles as head coach of Canterbury around the turn of the century and then worked with Robbie Deans at the Crusaders – during a period when the Crusaders won two titles but also fell to their worst finish since the inaugural Super Rugby competition. In the following years, Hansen took over from Henry at Wales where results were, to put it mildly, mediocre.
Regardless of results, Hansen was viewed as a promising coach and brought into the All Blacks mix. It was no doubt his eight years as Henry’s second in command that eventually earned him the head coach role – a role he has excelled in since. Maintaining continuity from the successful Henry era to the next was likely one of the things that Hansen pushed hard in his application with the NZRU and certainly played a big part in helping him get the job. Ultimately, it’s for this reason that we will likely see one of the current All Blacks assistant coaches take over from Hansen in 2020.
Gatland has had a successful tenure as coach of both Wales and the British and Irish Lions, but he has had little to do with New Zealand rugby since he left the country ten years ago. Rennie, in a similar vein, is possibly the most talented Super Rugby coach New Zealand has seen in a number of years but, while his experience overseas will be invaluable, it is likely that he won’t be considered as a serious contender for the All Blacks coaching berth until he steps into a more junior role in the set up.
Closer to home, Scott Robertson has successfully returned the Crusaders to their former glory as the top team in Super Rugby. He’s an affable character who will certainly have many supporters around New Zealand (especially in the Canterbury region), but he’s still a relative newbie compared to some of the other challengers, having only been a professional head coach for five years. It’s also worth remembering that another very talented Crusaders coach was overlooked for the All Blacks head coaching position back in 2008 in favour of maintaining continuity.
All signs point to a current coach in the All Blacks set up taking over from Hansen come 2020, and the man best placed to step into the role is Foster. Like Hansen before him, Foster’s coaching achievements prior to joining the All Blacks are nothing to write home about.
Foster was in charge of the Chiefs for eight years, from 2004 until 2011, and in that time they made the finals only twice (and were on the receiving end of the worst ever loss suffered in a Super Rugby final). It’s worth noting, however, that Foster’s record with the Chiefs is not quite as poor as many people make out.
A coach has two primary roles – recruiting the right men and getting the best possible results out of them. In recent iterations of Super Rugby, recruiting has changed considerably from how it operated prior to 2010. Now, in New Zealand at least, players can be contracted to any Super Rugby squad, regardless of which province they represent in the domestic competition. This has significantly altered the resources available to Super Rugby coaches and has placed a huge emphasis on bringing in the right players to a squad. Recruitment becomes a much more complex task – but it also means that squads are stronger across the board. Whilst the Highlanders and the Chiefs used to have to rely on primarily local talent, they can now bring in players from across the country. Unsurprisingly, both teams have seen improved performances and between them have won a third of the Super Rugby titles on offer since 2010.
When Foster was in charge of the Chiefs, he had a solid team – the first XV was close to rivalling the best in the competition. A solid team (injury permitting), however, is still going to struggle with the line-ups that the Crusaders and Hurricanes were able to throw out every week. The Chiefs’ only regular All Blacks during the Foster era were Byron Kelleher, Mils Muliaina and Sitiveni Sivivatu. Compare that to the likes of the Huricanes who could trot out Jerry Collins, Andrew Hore, Cory Jane, Ma’a Nonu, Conrad Smith Rodney So’oialo, Neemia Tialata and Piri Weepu. Obviously, developing players is also a core role of a coach but, to put it bluntly, the Chiefs simply didn’t have the raw resources to regularly compete with the best teams in the competition.
Come the end of many a Super Rugby season, the Chiefs were also playing some of the best rugby of any of the teams. 2006 and 2007, in particular, finished on very high notes, but the Chiefs were hampered by their early season form. In fact, the biggest criticism you could make of Foster during his time as head coach was that he was never able to get the Chiefs engine ticking along until a few weeks into the competition.
Foster may not necessarily be the best coach running around, but when it come to assessing the best man for the All Blacks coaching role there are certain aspects of the contenders that need to be emphasised over others. It can’t be overstated how important the seamless transition between Henry and Hansen has been for the All Blacks’ success over the last eight years.
Foster knows the players already in the All Blacks set up – and he’s certainly done considerable research over the players nearing selection. To bring in a completely new coach with completely new ideas and systems wastes any of the knowledge that Foster and his other assistants have accrued over the years. It makes considerably more sense to promote Foster to the top dog role and bring in one of the other contenders as an apprentice. Someone like Rennie, who is incredible at identifying promising talent, would perfectly supplement the skills that Foster has.
With an announcement of the NZRU’s intentions for 2020 and onwards possibly just around the corner, it’s becoming increasingly likely that Ian Foster will take over as head coach of the All Blacks once Hansen abdicates the role. This is even more probable if Hansen steps into a newly created job as director of New Zealand rugby, as is rumoured. The bigger question that should be considered if who will be added to the coaching roster – because they will likely have the best chance of being the next All Blacks coach once Foster completes his time.
All Black coaching contenders:
Ian Foster – continues to serve as assistant coach under the successful Hansen regime
Joe Schmidt – current coach of Ireland, retiring from coaching for the immediate future and unlikely to throw his hat in the ring
Warren Gatland – current coach of Wales, will likely be pursuing another international coaching gig after his contract ends next year (already England has been rumoured)
Vern Cotter – coaching Montpellier at present after spending a number of years at the helm of Scotland, has suggested that a return home could be on the cards after finishing up in France
Dave Rennie – likely to remain contracted to Glasgow until the end of 2019, could fancy a shot at the top job but an assistant role should be his if he wants it
Jamie Joseph – contracted with Japan until the World Cup concludes next year, Joseph had a successful stint with the Highlanders (though it’s hard to forget how poorly the star-studded team performed in 2013)
Scott McLeod – brought in to the All Blacks coaching set up as a replacement for Wayne Smith in 2017, he may value more time in the assistant’s role
Scott Robertson – the youngest coach who may consider applying for the job, Robertson would make a great assistant
Rugby World Cup City Guide – Oita:
Comments on RugbyPass
Irish Rugby CEO be texting Andy Farrell “Andy, i found our next Kiwi Irishman”
4 Go to commentsI certainly don’t miss drinking beers at 8am in the morning watching rugby games being played in NZ.
1 Go to commentsThis looks like a damage limitation exercise for Wales, keeping back some of their more effective players for the last 20/25 minutes to try and counter England’s fresh legs so the Red Roses don’t rack up a big score.
1 Go to commentsVery unlikely the Bulls will beat Leinster in Dublin. It would be different in Pretoria.
1 Go to commentsI think it is a dangerous path to go down to ban a player for the same period that a player they injured takes to recover. Players would be afraid to tackle anyone. I once tackled my best friend at school in a practice match and sprained his ankle. I paid for it by having to play fly-half instead of full-back for the rest of that season’s fixtures.
5 Go to commentsJust such a genuine good bloke…and probably the best all round player in his generation. Good guys do come first sometimes and he handled the W.Cup loss with great attitude.
2 Go to commentsWord in France is that he’s on the radar of a few Top14 clubs.
4 Go to commentsGet blocking Travis, this guy has styles and he’s gonna make a swift impact…!
1 Go to commentsWhat remorse? She claimed that her dangerous tackle wasn’t worthy of a red! She should be compensating the injured player for loss of earnings at the minimum. Her ban should include the recovery time of the injured player as well as the paltry 3 match ban.
5 Go to commentsArdie is a legend. Finished and klaar. Two things: “Yeah, yeah, I have had a few conversations with Razor just around feedback on my game and what I am doing well, what I need to improve on or work-ons. It’s kind of been minimal, mate, but it’s all that I need over here in terms of how to be better, how to get better and what I am doing well.” I hope he’s downplaying it - and that it’s not that “minimal”. The amount of communication and behind the scenes preparation the Bok coaches put into players - Rassie and co would be all over Ardie and being clear on what is expected of him. This stands out for me as something teams should really be looking at in terms of the boks success from a coaching point of view. And was surprised by the comment - “minimal”. In terms of the “debate” around Ireland and South Africa. Nice one Ardie. Indeed. There’s no debate.
2 Go to commentsThere’s a bit of depth there but realistically Australian players have a long way to go to now catch up. The game is moving on fast and Australia are falling behind. Australian sides still don’t priories the breakdown like they should, it’s a non-negotiable if you want to compete on the international stage. That goes for forwards and backs. The Australian team could have a back row that could make a difference but the problem is they don’t have a tight five that can do the business. Tupou is limited in defence, overweight and unfit and the locks are a long way from international standard. Frost is soft and Salakai-Loto is too small so that means they need a Valentini at 8 who has to do the hard graft so limits the effectiveness of the backrow. Schmidt really needs to get a hard working, tough tight 5 if he wants to get this team firing.
3 Go to commentsSorry Morgan you must have been the “go to for a quote” ex player this week. Its rnd 6 and there is plenty of time to cement a starting 15 and finishing 8 so I have no such concerns.
2 Go to commentsGreat read. I wish you had done this article on the ROAR.
2 Go to commentsThe current AB coaching team is basically the Crusaders so it smacks of wanting their familiar leaders around. This is not a good look for the future of the ABs or the younger players in Super working their way up the player ladder. Razor is touted as innovative, forward looking but his early moves look like insecurity and insular, provincial thinking. He is the AB's coach not the Golden Oldies.
10 Go to commentsSimple reason for wanting him back. Robertson wants him as captain. Otherwise he wouldn’t be bothering chasing him. Not enough reason to come back just to mentor.
10 Go to commentsI had not considered this topic like this at all, brilliant read. I had been looking at his record at the Waratahs and thought it odd the Crusaders appointed him, then couple that with all that experience and talent departing and boom. They’ve got some great talent developing though, and in all honesty I don’t think anyone would be over confident taking them on in a playoff match, no matter how poor the first half of their season was. I think they can pull a game out of their ass when it counts.
2 Go to commentsNot a bad list but not Porecki and not Donaldson. Not because they are Tahs, or Ex Tahs, they are just not good enough. Edmed should be ahead. Far more potential. Wilson should be 8 and Valentini 6. Wilson needs to be told by his father and his coach, stop bloody running in to brick wall defence. You’re not playing under the genius Thorn any more. He’s a fantastic angle runner. The young new 8 from the Brumbies looks really good too. The Lonegrans are just too small for international rugby as is Paisami, as is Hamish Stewart at 12. Both great at Super Rugby level. Stewart could have been a great 10 if not for Brad Thorn. Uru should be there and so should Tupou. Tupou just needs good Australian coaching which he hasn’t been getting. I don’t think Schmidt will excite him.
3 Go to commentsIf he wants to come back then he should. He will be a major asset to the younger locks and could easily be played as an impact player off the bench coming on in the last 30. He is fit, strong and capable and has all the experience to make up for any loss in physical prowess. He could also be brought back with a view to coaching within the structures one day. Duane Vermeulen played until he was 37 or 38. He is now a roaming coach within the South African coaching structures. He was valuable in the last world cup and has been a major influence on Jasper Wiese and other young players which has helped and accelerated their development and growth. Whitelock could do the exact same thing for NZ
10 Go to commentsBrett Excellent words… finally someone (other than DC) has noted that Hanigan is very hard and very good at doing what Backrow should do… his performance via the Drua sauna was quite daunting for those on the other side… very high tackle count… carries with good end result… constant threat to make a good 20-25 meters with those long legs… providing his mass effectively to crunching the Drua pack… Finally he is returning to quality form… way to much injury time over the last 2 years… smart-strong-competent in his skills… caught every lineout throw aimed at him and delivered clean pass to whoever was down below… and he worked hard for the whole 80 minutes… Ned has to be in the top 5 for backrow honors… He knows what is required as he has been there before…
20 Go to commentsI think Sam Whitelock should not touch a return with a bargepole. He went out on a high, playing in the RWC Final. He would be coming back into a team that will be weaker than last years, and might even be struggling to win games, especially against the Boks. Stay in France, enjoy another year with Pau, playing alongside his brother.
10 Go to comments