Why 'everyone will be expecting Ireland to win' battle of the behemoths
Perhaps the most revealing match of pool play in regards to the standings in World Rugby is on our doorstep. Ireland and South Africa will square off at Stade de France in a match with huge implications moving forward.
A match between the top two ranked teams in the world may sound like the synopsis for a final rather than round three of the pool stages, and it might end up being a prequel to the final in just over a month’s time, but that is exactly what rugby fans have to look forward to in another delicious serving of rugby this weekend.
The winner will be in the driver’s seat of Pool B with a likely matchup with the All Blacks in the quarter-final, while the loser will have to fend off any further challenges from Tonga, Scotland and Romania to claim second and potentially face France in the first round of the knockout stages.
Ireland have an undefeated record over the past 14 months, including a 19-16 win over South Africa last November, but face a hungry Springbok outfit who have downed New Zealand and Scotland in recent outings.
It’s a clash of the best of the best and predicting a winner is no easy task. Despite initially picking South Africa to emerge victorious, one Kiwi pundit has switched to favour the Irish.
“Again, 60 per cent possession, 64 per cent territory, 59 points. They’re in a rhythm,” James Parsons told the Aotearoa Rugby Pod, referring to Ireland’s statistics in their dominant round two win over Tonga.
“What I like is they’re just keeping the combinations together. They’ll probably rest them after this, if they can get the result, they’ll rest them, they’ll know they’re through.
“You’ve got to look at (Siya) Kolisi and I suppose the team, they have come out in defence of (Manie) Libbok, but with (Handré) Pollard coming in, he could be a difference-maker. He seriously could. And that’s the only unknown.
“Without that, and I’m obviously a big fan of (Malcolm) Marx, you’d have to say Ireland, you would expect to win.
“Massive opportunity for South Africa to sort of rock the competition because everyone will be expecting Ireland to win.
“Ireland are just so slick. How good is Bundee Aki? He’s just found vintage form. He was sort of on the outer, he wasn’t starting and now, 19 carries, (the lines he runs), just committed.
“What helps Bundee I think is the discipline of his teammates to keep committed to their role in the system and the bodies in motion. It makes defenders think.”
Parsons went on to emphasise how the Springboks will have to be assertive in their decision-making on defence, as any hesitation could leave a weak shoulder for the damaging running of Aki to exploit.
His co-panelist, former Maori All Black Bryn Hall, was less convinced the result would go in Ireland’s favour. Hall has the benefit of being teammates with a Springbok who made it clear, the South Africans would play to their strengths.
“Talking to Kwagga Smith last year around how they think they could beat Ireland, it’s the physicality and being able to slow down their ball.
“Last time they actually played, they just lost to Ireland, but what they did in and around that breakdown area, winning collisions, making it really slow, you saw Ireland didn’t get things all their own way in there. They weren’t able to actually have that animation and be able to get that go-forward ball that you’re talking about.
“I can see the South African boys having a 6-2 split and just trying to physically beat up and slow down that ball of the Irish.”
While the Springbok pack is renowned for being the most imposing in the rugby world, Ireland are coming off the back of a performance against a team with some world-class physicality in their own right.
Tonga, on paper, looked to be the side with superior size. A whopping 60kg differential in pack weights was noted at scrum time and yet both teams won 100 per cent of their scrums.
Around the park as well, Ireland were more than up to the task of dealing with the ‘Ikale Tahi’s huge ball runners.
“Tonga though – if you look at Ireland defensively – only 37% of (Tonga’s) carries were gain line, and they’re not small men,” Parsons rebutted. “That (Springbok) physicality, I’m not sure is as dominant in this matchup.
“Ireland are one of the more physical sides. The one area I do agree with you is, when they went into the 22, 16 entries, only eight tries. I know that sounds ridiculous but when they’re humming, Ireland aren’t a team that let you off the hook.
“To be at 50 per cent for 22 entries, you’re probably only going to get three or four opportunities against a team like South Africa and you need to probably make them all count.
“Because they – and I think if Pollard starts – can really open you up out wide with their speedsters but also they’ll kick their penalties.”
Winning the battle up front will no doubt go a long way to deciding the result. The pundits admitted it was so difficult to call that it may come down to selections on the day.
“If I was to call it now without knowing (the teams), even if Pollard starts, I think Ireland will win.”
Comments on RugbyPass
The Melbourne Rebels lineout is a complete disaster so not surprisingly a kiwi coach of the Wallabies hires the worst lineout coach in the country and a foreigner to boot. No surprises whatsoever here…….
3 Go to commentsThank your for wasting 2 minutes of my life Daniel. There is a useful message in there somewhere but your delivery sucks.
7 Go to commentsBen Smith, you are cry baby
213 Go to commentsSux that homophobia is still a thing though. I wonder how many players who could have become legends never kept playing rugby because they felt unwelcome.
7 Go to commentsCrazy he’s only 28, feel like he’s been around forever - don’t mind the move, safe pair of hands and creates depth in a thin position for ABs. Hopefully aides Kemara’s growth also without thrusting too much responsibility on him
1 Go to commentsMen should show strength and be mean, but they should be able to show emotion to those close yo them in certain times, birth of your child, death of family, proud moment. This article is stupid
7 Go to commentsWhat a weak article…absolute drivel and clickbait, well done. Will stick to rugby365 thanks
7 Go to commentsHonest, discipline, humility… Priceless.
2 Go to commentsSo many excuses. No mention of the SA number 2 being taken out illegally in the 2nd minute. That act of foul play had a massive impact on the SA game. Face it, NZ play pretty dirty very regularly, and it’s only since 2016 they’ve been held to higher officiating standards via stricter officiating and TMO reviews. They deserved to have a man down. Sorry. Fix the yellow and red cards and NZ will win more RWCs. Plus, there WAS a knock on invalidating the one try, so it was NOT a try. Period. Here’s a Kleenex…
213 Go to commentsOverheard conversation between NZ and SA rugby fans everywhere: We’re the greatest! No! we’re the greatest! We’re the greatest! No we’re the greatest! Ireland are arrogant! True but they beat you! We’re the greatest! No! we’re the greatest! Etc. etc, etc.
33 Go to commentsTypical crap Aussie weather
11 Go to comments“If they’d have beaten England, I still feel we would have been talking ‘is this the best team ever,’ ‘is this the best team that’s ever played in the Six Nations'” he said. “I still think they’re not quite that good. I actually don’t think they’re that good.” So Trimble is saying he doesn’t think this is the best 6N team of all time. He is silent on if it is the best Irish team of all time. Can’t disagree with him. Just another misrepresentative clickbait headline from the guys at RP.
33 Go to commentsWow, do we really still have to listen to all the excuses and “unfairness” of it all. Even blaming the bounce of an egg shaped ball for the loss. But the article is about context, so what about the Springboks having to play the other 5 teams in the top 6 and still beating a comparatively rested AB team on a very empty tank.
213 Go to comments“Teams would generally have three coaches below their head honcho; attack coach, defence coach, forwards coach” do they? I’m not sure what the NZ set up is tbh, but the other 4 sides top 5 sides all have very different structures to the one outlined in the article! As well as attack, defence, and forwards coaches, SA, Ireland, and France also have specialist scrum coaches. England have a specialist scrum coach too, but arguably don’t have a forwards coach, with that role taken on by Borthwick. SA also have a backs coach in addition to defence and attack, and Ireland and England have fitness coaches, with England also having two skills coaches.
3 Go to commentsWorst article I've read in a while. Trying to disguise a backhand slap as a compliment. The whole article is a bit weird and negative. I think South African men are emotional in general… think Clad le Clos’s father 2012 London Olympics.
7 Go to commentsIreland are going to win the world cup.
33 Go to commentsIt was the strangest result ever. Etzebeth should've been yellow card for his cynical retiring move and a penalty try. Birth second half tries by the Allblacks were fantastic and the TMO operating outside the law to rule out the first try was egregious. Yes, the boks got the win but it was through some bizarre officiating that allowed them to sneak home against 14 men that dominated them. The quieter Bok supporters know and acknowledge the Allblacks were the better and dominant side. Justifying the win because they beat a pre world cup Allblacks selection is silly.
213 Go to commentsA very English thing to do hey Courtney, blerrie kant
4 Go to commentsIt sounds like Andrew is trying to convince himself or has just lost all perspective. The team did look jaded for the last couple of games of the six nations but a few things were wrong there. Italy tackled their hearts out and made Ireland work hard for every try. Outsmarted by Scotland? Huh? Ireland got held up over the line about 4 times. Scotland did nothing on attack the whole game other than one breakaway near the end. A recharge and reset is needed which they hopefully will have had before the SA your.
33 Go to commentsIncluding SA and Argie teams was great for the quality of rugby, but middle of the night games and player travel/ jet lag make that unworkable. I think that SA in Europe and Argie building an American league with USA, Canada etc would be better long term. If Oz can't sustain Rebels then next cab off the rank should be a Japanese team. Keep regional comps to time zones, both club and test rugby. Then existing test windows for test tours plus RWC.
8 Go to comments