USA have landed a trip to the meat grinder in Pacific Nations Cup semi-finals

The Challenge

As a reward for a decisive win over Canada and a strong performance in a loss to Japan, USA has earned the right to run into the teeth of the meat grinder that is Fiji– though in this case, the meat grinder is also a magician who does ballet. So dangerous have Fiji proved themselves in two thumping wins over Samoa and Tonga that they only needed fourteen men in their most recent match after an early red card. While the Flying Fijians historically had all of the flair but routinely suffered lapses in execution and discipline, the introduction of the Fijian Drua to Super Rugby has given these players year-round training and consistent coaching, leading to a quarter-final appearance in the 2023 World Cup. Currently sitting at tenth in the world rankings, Fiji can count themselves among the world’s most dangerous teams on their day.

Across the field from them, the green-if-not-young USA squad has started to show some real identity under new head coach Scott Lawrence. The bravery and physicality he admires have shown in the ball carrying of Jamason Fa’anana-Schultz and tackling of Cory Daniel, the lethal set-piece strikes have come from wingers Connor Mooneyham and Nate Augspurger, and flyhalf Luke Carty’s kicking from hand has come as a revelation. However, due to health or selection, neither Fa’anana-Schultz nor Carty have made the matchday roster, and in fact even captain Greg Peterson has found himself moved to the bench. In fact, Lawrence has rotated almost the entire spine of the team, with 2, 8, 10, and 15 all rotating, including Chris Mattina into flyhalf and Toby Fricker (uncapped) at fullback. While the Eagles will enter every match with a warrior’s mentality, seeking a win, Lawrence has clearly opted for blooding new talent and trying new combinations, which gives us some more exciting reasons to watch.

Head-to-Head

Last 2 Meetings

Wins

2

Draws

0

Wins

0

Average Points scored

21

9

First try wins

100%

Home team wins

100%

What to Watch For

New Blood at Ten– While Chris Mattina has bounced around the backfield in his career, primarily between flyhalf and fullback, he does not have a huge body of work at the playmaker position, especially at the international level. What he lacks in the intelligent kicking game of Carty he brings dangerous ball carrying to the line, having cut his teeth on the sevens circuit. However, the most exciting face is on the bench in the form of Rand Santos, the USA u20s sensation fresh off a finals appearance in the World Trophy. Tapped as the future in the position in America, hopefully, this comes as the first of many caps in the red, white, and blue. 

New Blood at Fullback– Not since former captain Chris Wyles in 2015 has USA had an automatic selection at fullback; a rotating staff has filled the position since, and the USA’s backfield has suffered for the lack of consistency. The new face starting on the weekend is Toby Fricker, a Welshman qualified for the Eagles through his mother, who brings URC and English Premiership experience as well as a couple of Welsh Sevens appearances. Though on the older side for a first cap at 29, if he can anchor the position through the next World Cup the Americans will have found a fantastic new asset. 

Heart of the American Team– Often the uphill battles reveal the most about the character of teams, challenging them to maintain composure in the face of distinctly uncomfortable and difficult positions. This Fijian team can uniquely frustrate opponents– their offload game alone can feel unstoppable at times– and the Eagles will need to stick to their game plan and process throughout the match. Can the Americans keep composure and keep moving forward, where previous teams might have let the wheels fall off?

In Summary

If we look at this match and this lineup in its place within the larger plan and process leading to World Cup 2027, it’s an exciting step toward the next era of the Eagles. Expect the game plan to feature long periods of frustration to try to grind the Fijians into penalty trouble, as well as stifling their dynamic attack with intelligent kick chase and defence. The USA will want to put enough continued periods of play together to get the new combinations and players valuable looks, while continuing to build their physical defensive identity. All that being said, I’m not picking against the Eagles. USA to win in a shootout.