Springboks' place at top of world rankings comes under threat

Having seen their position at the top of the World Rugby Men’s Rankings protected since mid-September, through the Quilter Nations Series and then the Guinness Six Nations, South Africa could be knocked off their perch on the opening weekend of the inaugural Nations Championship.

Given that England have never tasted victory at Ellis Park in Johannesburg in the professional era, and their only win there was 18-9 back in 1972, winning this weekend will be a very tall order for Steve Borthwick’s men, who travel without regular captain Maro Itoje.

Instead, Jamie George will likely lead England into a battle at a venue South Africa are more familiar with than any other, with this being the 56th Test played there by the Springboks compared to Newlands’ 54.

However, Ellis Park hasn’t been anywhere near as fortress-like as Loftus Versfeld in Pretoria, with two of the last four Tests in Johannesburg ending in Springbok defeats, including the shocking 38-22 capitulation at the hands of the Wallabies in last year’s Rugby Championship.

For South Africa to be replaced at the top of the rankings, England would have to match or better the margin of victory achieved by the Wallabies, while at the same time, the All Blacks would have to beat an Antoine Dupont-less France.

Unsurprisingly, such an improbable combination of results would lead to a big ranking points swing from South Africa to New Zealand, with the 3.61-point lead currently enjoyed by the Springboks wiped out … but only just.

A defeat of that magnitude for South Africa would result in the Boks’ rankings points total falling by three points to 90.94, while New Zealand will increase theirs to at least 91.04 with a win, or 91.40 if they beat France by 16 points or more.

Current World Rugby Men’s Rankings Top 12

1. South Africa – 93.94
2. New Zealand – 90.33
3. Ireland – 89.07
4. France – 87.46
5. Argentina – 84.97
6. England – 83.91
7. Scotland – 82.90
8. Australia – 81.53
9. Fiji – 81.14
10. Italy 79.64
11. Wales – 75.07
12. Japan – 74.09