The eternal Wallabies selection conundrum that now falls to Les Kiss

There are 18 Test matches between now and the beginning of the 2027 home Rugby World Cup, and the Wallabies must use these games astutely.

They must be used efficiently to build a Wallabies squad with a genuine depth of 33-40 players, and they must be used accurately to ensure players get the right exposure at the right time.

The first number is 33 because that has been the typical World Cup squad size, and it typically carries around 19-21 forwards with between 12-14 backs.

You must also account for injuries, hence the number 40, which is an achievable number but still short of the ‘three-deep in every position’ standard that gets bandied around by rugby pundits.

In the case of the Wallabies, they arguably have 21 players that they use regularly who can compete with almost any side in the world; then there are the rest who are inexperienced or not yet at the standard required to help the Wallabies be a genuine shot in 2027.

New head coach Les Kiss must continue to play in-form players to ensure their great form is rewarded with more caps, but he cannot afford to ignore the experienced players either.

Strength of selection was not a hallmark of the Joe Schmidt era, but Schmidt did succeed in building a genuine base of players for a matchday squad, but perhaps not a full gameday 23.

Kiss cannot afford to make the same selection mistakes as his predecessor, and while he must continue that baselaying work, he must also optimise his selections, which will require regular rotation in two or three positions within the matchday 23 every week.

These changes cannot be injury-enforced but rather tactical calls with an acknowledgement of the fact that 15-23 players cannot and will not go deep in a World Cup.

Team Form

Last 5 Games

57 - 10

26 - 42

31 - 33

48 - 33

46 - 19

15 - 42

20 - 36

27 - 10

23 - 25

24 - 23

1

Wins

2

1

Streak

2

26

Tries Scored

10

-13

Points Difference

-25

3/5

First Try

2/5

3/5

First Points

1/5

3/5

Race To 10 Points

4/5

Let’s think about it: most Wallabies fans will pick roughly the same starting XV, assuming there are no injuries or drops in form: no.1 Angus Bell, no.2 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, no.3 Allan Alaalatoa, no.4 Nick Frost, no.5 Will Skelton, no.6 Rob Valetini, no.7 Fraser McReight, no.8 captain Harry Wilson.

There may be some debate about Frost for Jeremy Williams or Josh Canham currently, and not the entire rugby sphere in Australia is sold on Wilson at no.8 as many would like to see Tom Hooper at no.6 and Valetini at no.8, however, this is a good debate to be having.

In the backs: no.9 Ryan Lonergan, no.10 Carter Gordon, no.11 Dylan Pietsch, no.12 Len Ikitau, no.13 Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, no.14 Max Jorgensen, and no.15 Tom Wright.

Mark Nawaqanitawase can feature in the World Cup but is not eligible yet as he is still playing in the NRL.

Others may want to see 50 Test cap Samu Kerevi in the no.12 jersey with Ikitau moved to his more renowned no.13, while many believe JAS could shift to the wing and make it big; again, a healthy debate.

If we head into the reserves, the waters get a little murkier, but there is a general common pool of players who have been used and who people largely would agree on.

In the reserves: no.16 ???, no.17 ???, no.18 Taniela Tupou, no.19 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, no.20 Tom Hooper, no.21 Tate McDermott, no.22 Ben Donaldson, no.23 ??? 

While debate will rage about whether Tupou is the right sort of player and perhaps a few are debating whether a Noah Lolesio, James O’Connor, or a Bernard Foley is better suited to the no.22 jersey, there are still some question marks around.

Who is the genuine second option at hooker? It appears that many people are content with Josh Nasser’s performances in July but are waiting for Billy Pollard to find his form again.

Now that James Slipper is out of the squad again, the obvious second choice at loosehead prop is as clear as mud; hence why coach Kiss has brought in Isaac Aedo Kailea, so he may have a go at developing the young power player.

Then there are those who have not been named in this matchday 23 but who have absolutely demanded a starting spot through great performance despite being inexperienced: second rower Josh Canham and openside flanker Carlo Tizzano.

Then there is the Wallabies’ extensive injury list as posted alongside Kiss’s first-ever Wallabies squad: Ethan Dobbins, Langi Gleeson, Jake Gordon, Zac Lomax, Tom Lynagh, Henry Robertson, Tom Robertson, Blake Schoupp.

For uncapped players or for those who have 10 Test caps or less, like Dobbins, Lomax, Lynagh, H Robertson, and Schoupp, the clock is well and truly ticking.

Whether they are fit by the end of the season to get some exposure, either via being part of the squad in the November leg of the Nations Championship or actually getting to play, is uncertain for some, impossible for most.

Then there are only seven Tests in 2027 ahead of the World Cup against some really tough opposition, including the All Blacks, South Africa, and Ireland, to try to get some minutes under the belt.

All eyes are on Lomax and how he recovers from a groin injury and how he plays in Super Rugby AU for the Western Force later in the year.

However, the four most interesting names on this list are Gleeson, H Robertson, Schoupp, and Gordon.

Gleeson is a genuine power athlete who has a ball-carrying game similar to that of two-time John Eales Medallist Rob Valetini, and at 18 Test caps, he is no stranger to the Test scene now at 25 years old.

Next is Schoupp; at 5 caps, Schoupp’s scrummaging ability and combative nature at the breakdown are what have him in the conversation.

Next are the two halfbacks. J Gordon was Schmidt’s man, and while it is unclear whether Kiss holds him in equally high esteem, there is no doubt that, with him being named on the injured list, he is still highly regarded.

There is no denying his 37 Test caps of experience either.

Then theres uncapped H Robertson; he was one of the most impressive uncapped players in the 2026 Super Rugby Pacific, and many people thought he would get his shot in a gold jersey had it not been for his injury.

However, all this is to say that the Wallabies, in terms of genuine experienced and talented depth, are not in a great spot, and that is bad news for Kiss and his 18 Tests ahead of the World Cup.

In the original matchday 23, with the question marks over certain positions, the total number of Test caps comes to 778. Forwards account for 393, the backs have 173, and the five reserves listed have 212.

Within this side, three backs, no.9, no.10, and no. 11, have fewer than 10 caps each, but the rest of the players have more than 20 caps.

The issue that faces Kiss is this: he must pick and stick to get game-drivers at no.9 and no.10 crucial experience at the Test level, yet he must rotate the entire squad at certain points to lift the median cap average as well as the standard across the squad.

The squad chosen for the weekend’s first game under Kiss’s regime against Japan will have fewer caps than those 778 listed.

Kiss must continue to not only hand out caps to his wider squad, but they must get significant minutes; that Italy game was a brilliant example of the type of rotation and minutes that must be given to the likes of a Tizzano.

Tizzano is an excellent case study for this; at 15 caps, he is relatively inexperienced, but come the World Cup, Kiss should aim to have him closer to 30 than to 20 caps, and that will require bigger minutes in more games.

If Canham is to be a genuine World Cup contributor, then he must continue to get the lion’s share of the minutes in the no.4 jersey so that he may draw near to Frost’s 38 caps, but he of course won’t be able to catch him.

If excitement machines like Charlie Cale or burly Miles Amatosero are to have any genuine chance at being impactful, they must get minutes starting in the series against Japan, and they must continue to get those minutes throughout the year, starting and off the bench.

There is also an adjacent selection question which must be answered: How will Kiss go about overseas selection?

Kiss’s predecessor Schmidt was a very hardline domestic choice man who often selected Skelton as a lock-in pick, but Kiss appears as though he will use his choices more liberally.

Skelton is an automatic pick when fit, Hooper feels like he is the kind of player everyone wants in and around the 23, and that leaves one regular tournament slot for a third player, which caps out the overseas selection pool.

There are names like Lolesio at no.10, Kerevi at no.12, Tom Banks at fullback, Tolu Latu or Jordan Uelese at hooker, Gleeson in the backrow, and Izack Rodda in the second row.

Then there are the old-bulls at playmaker who are currently appearing to be signed by Australian Super Rugby sides in O’Connor and Foley, with even Quade Cooper now seeming to put his hat in the ring.

Most of those selections increase your cap count by a significant margin, particularly in the backs.

Kiss has the 10 Tests in 2026 to truly experiment and find his diamonds in the rough, but come 2027, perhaps after that ANZAC Day Bledisloe match in April, Kiss must know who his 33 men are, and they must be the ones getting the lion’s share of the minutes.

Kiss and the Wallabies cannot afford to be conservative now in 2026, but neither can they nor should they rotate as heavily as South Africa do.

Kiss must make shrewd, tactical changes that boost the overall cap count and experience level of a broader group.

All this begins on Saturday when the Wallabies take on Eddie Jones and the Brave Blossoms in Osaka.