How the Wallabies can go unbeaten this November

The Wallabies head north in November on a Spring Tour unlike any other hitherto embarked upon.

It is the first iteration of the Nations Championship, and while it is still too soon to see if the new concept is a success, it definitely means there is more on the line in November than has been for some time.

The Wallabies will be playing three planned opponents and one mystery fourth opposition on the finals weekend to finish off the year.

The Wallabies first play England at Twickenham, then Scotland at Murrayfield and then round out the ‘pool matches’ against Wales at the Principality.

Where the Wallabies have played third-ranked Ireland, fourth-ranked France, ninth-ranked Japan, seventh-ranked Argentina, first-ranked South Africa, and second-ranked New Zealand, the challenge is about to get a little easier, rankings-wise at least.

England are ranked fifth, Scotland ranked sixth, and now Wales ranked tenth after Fiji beat Japan over the weekend and leapfrogged them into ninth.

This is not to say that beating three of the four home nations in the UK will be an easy task, far from it, merely stating it will be easier than taking on Argentina twice, South Africa once, and New Zealand twice across two months.

The Wallabies’ style fares pretty well against England and a little less so against Scotland, who are two and one rank above them respectively on the World Rugby ladder, and Wales are yet to pick themselves out of their long slump.

This tour is going to be anything but easy, and the Wallabies must be at the top of their game if they are going to achieve an unbeaten run.

The Wallabies will be boosted by the return of their preferred flyhalf, Carter Gordon, and world-class tighthead prop Taniela Tupou, whilst sweating on the fitness of Tom Hooper.

Returning starters, as well as building combinations in a long line of continuity in camp environments, bode well for the Wallabies.

They are still missing injured players Will Skelton, Langi Gleeson, and Jake Gordon, and a new selection blow has also been dealt with regular no.12 Hunter Paisami having to withdraw due to personal reasons, meaning the Wallabies will not be at full strength.

However, coach Les Kiss has used a vast number of players in 2026, and he has managed to assemble a squad which has been able to be competitive with some of the best teams in the world.

The late withdrawal of Paisami means the Wallabies will need to establish a new centre-field partnership for November, and that is most unsettling, but elsewhere, returning cattle and settled combinations bode well for core pillars of their game like scrum, lineout, and forward pack grunt.

So let’s take a look at each known opponent and speculate about who the Wallabies will meet on the finals weekend of the Nations Championship.

Test 1 – England

England, being the birthplace of rugby, fittingly has the fundamentals under wraps.

Their set piece is operating at an 89% success rate at the scrum and 95% at the lineout, which is the highest lineout completion rate of any side in the world.

The highest average scrum success rate is that of Argentina, who are operating at 100% for their six matches in 2026. Japan, Scotland, the Springboks, and Wales are all ahead of England on that front, and so are the Wallabies.

Having played some very good front rows in their own games, the Wallabies have managed a scrummaging success rate of 96%, and this in turn robs England of one of their recent power plays.

The lineout is where the Wallabies will truly be tested, as England are one of three teams to have a better lineout completion than them.

When it comes to point scoring, England and the Wallabies are even, with both scoring an average of 34 points per game, but those have been inflated by blowouts against Fiji and Italy, respectively.

Worryingly for both sides, they concede far too many points per game on average, with England conceding 28.5 and the Wallabies 31.4 points per game.

You combine this with the fact that both sides concede between 9-10 linebreaks per game, and you can expect another high-scoring affair to kick off their Nations Championship campaigns.

The biggest thing holding England back this November is Steve Borthwick’s conservative grasp on the team.

While Northampton Saints and Bath play really exciting attacking rugby, and the England stars at Bristol, Leicester, Harlequins and Exeter are all capable of high-octane attack, the England coach keeps things very narrow when they all don the white of Queen and country.

If this is the moment Borthwick truly decides to loosen his grip on the reins, then the world may not be ready for the England that will emerge during November, but it would be wishful thinking on behalf of English fans to hope for too much.

The Wallabies have their own defensive woes to deal with should they hope to contain England, but should things get bogged down in a melee, then the Wallabies should be confident they can mix it with the English.

England have one of the healthiest squads in the competition, with very few, if any, material injuries to speak of aside from regular flyhalf Fin Smith, who is in doubt for the opener against the Australians.

There are no excuses for England at home on the opening weekend.

While the Wallabies are sweating on the status of Tom Hooper’s shoulder, which he aggravated over the weekend, there is undoubtedly a cohesion and connection that the Wallabies will have that the English don’t.

If the Wallabies can get anywhere near the amount of linebreaks which they managed against the All Blacks in Sydney, a total of 17, then the English are in for a very long night.

Finally, it should be stated that since the 2015 Rugby World Cup, the two teams have played 13 times and the Wallabies have won just two and lost 11. History firmly favours the English.

Test 2 – Scotland

The players from the land of whiskey and haggis have always proven to be the Wallabies’ kryptonite-lite after the All Blacks.

It is also fitting that Scotland play an All Blacks-lite style under coach Gregor Townsend, and that is perhaps why they trouble the Wallabies so much.

Despite the Scots being able to ball when the mood strikes them, they are a tough side and concede fewer linebreaks than England and Australia, and tend to concede fewer points as a result.

Currently ranked sixth in the world, the Scots have a scrum averaging at 93% and a lineout at 90%; they are both strong numbers that will challenge all their November opponents.

When it comes to scoring and conceding points, their margins are smaller than the English and the Wallabies, scoring 31 points on average per match and conceding 30 points.

Their run so far in 2026 has them at five wins and three losses, those losses coming against Italy, Ireland, and South Africa, and they were flogged in those final two games.

An impressive 50-40 point defeat over France was the highlight of their season, with the loss to Italy, or perhaps their narrow 26-23 escape against Wales, showing just how inconsistent Townsend’s men have been so far.

Scotland’s tough nature has meant they have frustrated higher-ranked sides for chunks of a game, but have rarely been able to do it over 80 minutes consistently.

Having a Finn Russell, one of the three best flyhalves in the game currently, at the helm always helps their case, but the class of the Scots is now spread amongst the squad.

What the Wallabies must be careful of is not to get stuck in an arm wrestle with these men.

They concede the fewest linebreaks of any of the top 12 sides in the world at only 6.75 linebreaks per game on average, and have the third-lowest turnover rate of any of the top 12 sides at only 5.75 per game.

Because they don’t have the same strike power across the board as the All Blacks, nor do they set as many rucks or make as many carries, they can’t afford as many turnovers per game.

Due to the tough nature of how the Scots defend and protect their ball, the Wallabies want to avoid extended periods of attack or defence, and go for the throat early in their skirmishes.

The Scots have a solid all-round set piece, but the Wallabies’ is better, so the Aussies should look to force their hand at every contest there.

The Wallabies have the beef up front to get front-foot ball, but with the Scots conceding so few linebreaks, the Wallabies are going to have to be vastly more clinical with their opportunities than they were in the second  Bledisloe match in Sydney.

In that game, they made 17 linebreaks and still only managed 21 points; all the data suggests that the Wallabies will make around half that figure, and that doesn’t bode well for their finishing stats.

The Wallabies have had a notoriously bad run against Scotland since RWC 2015; the two teams have played each other six times, with the ledger standing at two wins and four losses in favour of the Scots.

The last time the pair met on Australian soil was in 2017 in Sydney; back then the Scotsmen prevailed 24-19, and the last time the Wallabies won on Scottish soil was in 2022, when the Wallabies scraped a 16-15 victory.

The games between these two often prove to be a close affair, and everything points to this contest being no different.

The Wallabies have the points in them to give Townsend’s men a proper shake, but much like their stellar flyhalf, if Scotland are on, then there are few in the world who can match their brutal yet eloquent style of rugby.

Test 3 – Wales

The now 10th-ranked Wales are still trying to find their way in the top 12 sides in the world, and coach Steve Tandy has assembled a strong squad to do just that.

A combination of the old guard and a very fresh-faced new generation is what will take on the Wallabies at the Principality midway through November.

For a side that has slid down the pecking order for quite a number of years, you wouldn’t know it by looking at their set piece stats.

Both scrum and lineout are at 93% after having played England, Scotland, South Africa, and Argentina, who are some of the best scrummaging sides in the world.

The Welsh, being the resilient and proud nation that they are, protect their breakdown to great effect, only conceding 5.9 turnovers per game, a very low number considering they are 10th.

Where Wales’ issues arise is their defensive line integrity and point scoring.

Wales just haven’t been able to hang with the better sides when the punches start rolling in, and they can’t reply in kind as they lack genuine gainline winners apart from a very select few.

Conceding an average of 11 line breaks per game, as well as 34.2 points, is far too many when you’re only scoring an average of 14.8 points per match.

Two converted tries per game and being kept to zero points against a heavily rotated Springboks paints a very bleak picture.

It’s clear that while they concede points not too dissimilar from teams ranked higher than them, they are unable to score enough to outweigh their defensive shortcomings.

The Wallabies, on the other hand, have plenty of points in them once they start going, so the Wallabies focus must be on the defensive side of the ball.

Keeping the pressure high on Wales when they have the ball is paramount in giving the Wallabies counter-attack opportunities, with the Wallabies being one of the best sides in the world at striking in six phases or less from anywhere on the field.

The Wallabies will know the Welsh have plenty of fight in them, and it was not so long ago that Wales was a superpower in world rugby; players like Tomos Williams, Josh Adams, Adam Beard, and Ryan Elias will remember it.

For the Wallabies to be able to secure third place on the Southern Hemisphere table, as it does not look probable they would lap the All Blacks or Springboks, they will need to finish strong against Wales after two gruelling Tests against England and Scotland.

Test 4 – Probable finals weekend opponent

For all the effort the Wallabies will be putting in throughout November, their reward may very well be a rematch with either England, Scotland or Ireland.

In the Nations Championship format, a team gets 4 points for a win, 2 points for a draw, 0 points for a loss, and 2 bonus points are on the line: one for scoring four or more tries and the second if you lose by fewer than seven points.

Ireland must overcome both South Africa and a refreshed Argentina but can’t afford to sleep on Fiji, whilst England and Scotland must both contend with the All Blacks and Australia and cannot afford to let their guard down for Eddie Jones’ Japan either.

The difficulty of all these matches means consistency will be key, and seeing as Ireland has the lowest points conceded per average, as well as the healthiest for-and-against ledger, Ireland appears likely to secure second spot on the Northern Hemisphere ladder.

This means the Wallabies are most likely to have a rematch with Borthwick’s England, which may well be a preview of next year’s Rugby World Cup quarter-final.

With this being the case, should this fixture in November come to pass, it will be extra bragging rights and a psychological edge on the line ahead of the RWC to whoever prevails.