Super Rugby Watercooler: What's going to happen at this SANZAAR meeting?
There’s a lot to talk about as we head into Round 3 of Super Rugby – and Scotty Stevenson is across it all. Here’s the low down.
In the Trenches in the Tron
The Chiefs did everything in their power to reinforce their reputation as the street-corner bullies of Super Rugby last weekend. They harassed the Blues at the breakdown, almost made them cry with the kind of well-aimed, old-school verbal abuse that would make a coal miner blush, and, as has become their signature move, tackled every Blues player who got within 30 metres of the ruck, whether they had the ball or not. It was beautiful stuff; like watching a President’s Grade team filled with former gang members take on the local Marist Colts.
Well, good luck pulling that shit this weekend. The Hurricanes may be famous for their flair but it’s the improvement of their forward pack (take a bow John Plumtree, Richard Watt and Dan Cron) that has been the real secret to their title success. They won’t be so easily cowed into submission in Cowtown, so to speak.
Look, we all know the ‘Canes haven’t exactly been under a lot of pressure in the opening two rounds, but what is interesting – and what makes this team a very tough proposition for the Chiefs – is their set-piece scoring conversion. Of the 24 (I mean, come on!) tries they have scored so far, nine have come from lineouts and five have come from attacking scrums. A further two have come from scrum steals, and five more from turnovers won. In other words, 21 of their 24 tries have come from messing up opposition forward packs.
For their part the Chiefs have scored 9 tries this season and wouldn’t you know it, six have come from lineouts, two from turnovers, and one from a scrum steal.
I know we could talk about almost every one-on-one match-up ahead of Friday night, but I’m picking this result boils down to an old-fashioned game of chicken. The team that blinks first in the set piece and contact areas loses.
Beaver!
Reason 243 for watching Friday’s game.
A heavy burden for the Highlanders
There once was a time when you could be committed for suggesting the Highlanders would beat the Blues at Eden Park. It was the sort of thing only a lunatic, or maybe Highlanders super-fan Steven from Dunedin, would consider. It has happened but, like finding a watchable Adam Sandler film or not losing at least one sock in the weekly wash, it remains a rare occurrence.
So uncommon is a Highlanders victory in Auckland that you can count them on one foot. Of a sloth. They have only thrice beaten the Blues at Eden Park – in 2002, 2012 and in 2015.
As if that past record wasn’t a tough enough hurdle for the Highlanders, there is also another more telling statistic that will be adding to the stress levels of the side ahead of Saturday’s showdown: Only two teams – the Bulls in 2005 and the Chiefs in 2009 – have made the playoffs after starting a season 0-3. Worse, the maximum number of losses for any New Zealand team that made the playoffs last year was four. You don’t want to be using those up this early in the season.
Resilience may be a Highlanders hallmark, but with Liam Squire (knee), James Lentjes (elbow), Jason Emery (Achilles) and Ben Smith (concussion) all out or still under medical review, they will need more than that to defeat the Blues this week.
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Bryn Gatland to the Crusaders
So let me get this straight. Now Scott Robertson can choose between starting Bryn (Hall) and Bryn (Gatland) at nine and ten, or Mitch (Drummond) and Mitch (Hunt). Well, that clears that up then.
It reminds me of a time when every name in the Crusaders backline started with ‘M’. There was Marshall, Mehrtens, Maddock, Matson, Mayerhofler, and MacDonald. The only outlier was Caleb Ralph, who decided to fit in by calling himself ‘Malfie’ instead of ‘Ralphy’.
Australia will be the stick in the mud
The SANZAAR nations meet today in Ireland to nut out the future format of the Super Rugby tournament, and it looks unlikely that Australia will budge on its desire to retain five teams in the competition.
It is understood NZ Rugby is chairing the meeting, which is reason enough for Australian CEO Bill Pulver to vehemently disagree with any suggestion his union should sacrifice anything. Australian Rugby has long taken a contrary stance to anything New Zealand Rugby has desired, and things don’t look like changing here.
The Rebels – the only privately owned team in Australia (and owned by a New Zealand businessman no less) will survive the cull. Australian Rugby would be on dangerous legal grounds if they were to sell a licence only to later support the team’s removal. The Force are currently fighting a rearguard action, in much the same vein as New Zealand’s provinces did during the review of the domestic competitions several years ago: by pleading with fans to come out in numbers to home games.
The Reds and Waratahs – the heartland sides of Australia’s East Coast rugby base, will be under no threat, which leaves the Brumbies as the other team potentially for the chop. It would be an incredible move to cut the most successful Australian side in the competition’s history, but after a couple of seasons of boardroom battles and financial strain, it is very much feasible.
Odds are that Australian rugby sticks to its guns and refuses to cut a team.
That leaves the South African conference as the sacrificial lamb in this decision. That’s an incredibly weird sentence to be writing given the fact South Africa’s access to broadcast revenue and time-zone equivalence with Europe have long seen them the true power broker in the SANZAAR model.
As mentioned in the Watercooler last week, the Kings and the Cheetahs are the obvious choices to go based on a triple whammy of financial struggles, historical underperformance, and limited fan appeal.
What if Australian Rugby won’t budge?
It seems clear that the ideal result for the competition would be to return for now to a 15-team competition, which would look something like this:
New Zealand Conference: Blues, Chiefs, Hurricanes, Crusaders and Highlanders
Australian Conference: Reds, Waratahs, Brumbies, Rebels and Sunwolves
South African Conference: Bulls, Lions, Sharks, Stormers and Jaguares
If the ARU retain all five teams, a Super 16 is still a distinct possibility, but quite where that leaves the Sunwolves is anyone’s guess. The Sunwolves surely aren’t going anywhere given the revenue access they offer SANZAAR, and the Jaguares are in a much similar position in terms of building markets.
A Super 16 would be a logistical nightmare, although it is fair to say that would be nothing new for this competition.
What Australian Rugby wants, and what it needs
The Watercooler understands there are some private ownership interests in New Zealand who would rather leave Australia to their own devices and concentrate on closer ties to the South African sides. There are so many things wrong with this argument that we don’t have time to discuss them. The obvious one from a New Zealand fan point of view is the horrendous ordeal of trying to watch games at 3 am in the morning.
We have spoken to several parties in Australian rugby, all of who have close connections to the major teams. Each is adamant that for Super Rugby to grow in Australia, they must focus on derby games and the trans-Tasman rivalry factor. The clubs want the June window gone, and who could blame them? The June window is arguably the worst thing about the Super Rugby format, yet the appeal of internationals means most fans have been willing to let this preposterous schedule slide.
If Australian Rugby is serious about giving the Super Rugby competition the space it deserves, there is no use in hanging on to all five teams. This is the reality they will be grappling with today.
Comments on RugbyPass
This looks like a damage limitation exercise for Wales, keeping back some of their more effective players for the last 20/25 minutes to try and counter England’s fresh legs so the Red Roses don’t rack up a big score.
1 Go to commentsVery unlikely the Bulls will beat Leinster in Dublin. It would be different in Pretoria.
1 Go to commentsI think it is a dangerous path to go down to ban a player for the same period that a player they injured takes to recover. Players would be afraid to tackle anyone. I once tackled my best friend at school in a practice match and sprained his ankle. I paid for it by having to play fly-half instead of full-back for the rest of that season’s fixtures.
5 Go to commentsJust such a genuine good bloke…and probably the best all round player in his generation. Good guys do come first sometimes and he handled the W.Cup loss with great attitude.
2 Go to commentsWord in France is that he’s on the radar of a few Top14 clubs.
2 Go to commentsGet blocking Travis, this guy has styles and he’s gonna make a swift impact…!
1 Go to commentsWhat remorse? She claimed that her dangerous tackle wasn’t worthy of a red! She should be compensating the injured player for loss of earnings at the minimum. Her ban should include the recovery time of the injured player as well as the paltry 3 match ban.
5 Go to commentsArdie is a legend. Finished and klaar. Two things: “Yeah, yeah, I have had a few conversations with Razor just around feedback on my game and what I am doing well, what I need to improve on or work-ons. It’s kind of been minimal, mate, but it’s all that I need over here in terms of how to be better, how to get better and what I am doing well.” I hope he’s downplaying it - and that it’s not that “minimal”. The amount of communication and behind the scenes preparation the Bok coaches put into players - Rassie and co would be all over Ardie and being clear on what is expected of him. This stands out for me as something teams should really be looking at in terms of the boks success from a coaching point of view. And was surprised by the comment - “minimal”. In terms of the “debate” around Ireland and South Africa. Nice one Ardie. Indeed. There’s no debate.
2 Go to commentsThere’s a bit of depth there but realistically Australian players have a long way to go to now catch up. The game is moving on fast and Australia are falling behind. Australian sides still don’t priories the breakdown like they should, it’s a non-negotiable if you want to compete on the international stage. That goes for forwards and backs. The Australian team could have a back row that could make a difference but the problem is they don’t have a tight five that can do the business. Tupou is limited in defence, overweight and unfit and the locks are a long way from international standard. Frost is soft and Salakai-Loto is too small so that means they need a Valentini at 8 who has to do the hard graft so limits the effectiveness of the backrow. Schmidt really needs to get a hard working, tough tight 5 if he wants to get this team firing.
3 Go to commentsSorry Morgan you must have been the “go to for a quote” ex player this week. Its rnd 6 and there is plenty of time to cement a starting 15 and finishing 8 so I have no such concerns.
2 Go to commentsGreat read. I wish you had done this article on the ROAR.
2 Go to commentsThe current AB coaching team is basically the Crusaders so it smacks of wanting their familiar leaders around. This is not a good look for the future of the ABs or the younger players in Super working their way up the player ladder. Razor is touted as innovative, forward looking but his early moves look like insecurity and insular, provincial thinking. He is the AB's coach not the Golden Oldies.
10 Go to commentsSimple reason for wanting him back. Robertson wants him as captain. Otherwise he wouldn’t be bothering chasing him. Not enough reason to come back just to mentor.
10 Go to commentsI had not considered this topic like this at all, brilliant read. I had been looking at his record at the Waratahs and thought it odd the Crusaders appointed him, then couple that with all that experience and talent departing and boom. They’ve got some great talent developing though, and in all honesty I don’t think anyone would be over confident taking them on in a playoff match, no matter how poor the first half of their season was. I think they can pull a game out of their ass when it counts.
2 Go to commentsNot a bad list but not Porecki and not Donaldson. Not because they are Tahs, or Ex Tahs, they are just not good enough. Edmed should be ahead. Far more potential. Wilson should be 8 and Valentini 6. Wilson needs to be told by his father and his coach, stop bloody running in to brick wall defence. You’re not playing under the genius Thorn any more. He’s a fantastic angle runner. The young new 8 from the Brumbies looks really good too. The Lonegrans are just too small for international rugby as is Paisami, as is Hamish Stewart at 12. Both great at Super Rugby level. Stewart could have been a great 10 if not for Brad Thorn. Uru should be there and so should Tupou. Tupou just needs good Australian coaching which he hasn’t been getting. I don’t think Schmidt will excite him.
3 Go to commentsIf he wants to come back then he should. He will be a major asset to the younger locks and could easily be played as an impact player off the bench coming on in the last 30. He is fit, strong and capable and has all the experience to make up for any loss in physical prowess. He could also be brought back with a view to coaching within the structures one day. Duane Vermeulen played until he was 37 or 38. He is now a roaming coach within the South African coaching structures. He was valuable in the last world cup and has been a major influence on Jasper Wiese and other young players which has helped and accelerated their development and growth. Whitelock could do the exact same thing for NZ
10 Go to commentsBrett Excellent words… finally someone (other than DC) has noted that Hanigan is very hard and very good at doing what Backrow should do… his performance via the Drua sauna was quite daunting for those on the other side… very high tackle count… carries with good end result… constant threat to make a good 20-25 meters with those long legs… providing his mass effectively to crunching the Drua pack… Finally he is returning to quality form… way to much injury time over the last 2 years… smart-strong-competent in his skills… caught every lineout throw aimed at him and delivered clean pass to whoever was down below… and he worked hard for the whole 80 minutes… Ned has to be in the top 5 for backrow honors… He knows what is required as he has been there before…
20 Go to commentsI think Sam Whitelock should not touch a return with a bargepole. He went out on a high, playing in the RWC Final. He would be coming back into a team that will be weaker than last years, and might even be struggling to win games, especially against the Boks. Stay in France, enjoy another year with Pau, playing alongside his brother.
10 Go to commentsRyan Coxon has been very impressive considering he was signed by WF as injury cover whilst Uru has been a standout for QR, surprised neither of those mentioned
3 Go to commentsIt’s the massive value he brings with regard team culture/values, preparation, etc. Can’t buy that. I’m hoping to see the young locks get their chance in the big games though.
10 Go to comments