Stat chat: What separates the Crusaders and Blues ahead of the semi-final

The old foes are set for a blockbuster semi-final in Christchurch, and the stats show this year’s Crusaders and Blues aren’t as different as one might expect.

The Crusaders earned their place in the semis with a comprehensive home win over the Reds, while the Blues shocked a Hamilton crowd with a clutch win over the heavily favoured Chiefs. The Blues will still enter the second week of the playoffs as underdogs – dangerous underdogs.

History certainly favours the hosts this weekend, given they have won 21 of their last 23 games against the Aucklanders and 30 consecutive playoff games on their current home field, while the Blues are yet to win back-to-back away games in 2025.

So, what areas will decide the contest?

Strengths

The Blues have retained the bones of their 2024 title-winning game plan, but have found less success with it in 2025. That means they still play tighter to the ruck than any opponent, and have the highest gainline success rate in Super Rugby.

Their defence is more accurate than last season, despite making over 20 more tackles per game. The Blues are making the third-most tackles week-to-week while missing the third least.

The Crusaders make the most tackles in the competition, still at a respectable rate, and are far better at winning turnovers. On attack, the Crusaders are at their best when looking to evade tackles rather than power through them, and are by far the best in the competition at converting both linebreaks and 22 entries into points.

Head-to-Head

Last 5 Meetings

Wins

4

Draws

0

Wins

1

Average Points scored

26

22

First try wins

60%

Home team wins

80%

Weaknesses

The Crusaders are lacking dominant ball carriers, with relatively low gainline and dominant carry numbers on the season – an injury to Tamaiti Williams compounds that weakness this weekend.

The hosts also have poor 22 exit numbers, perhaps as a symptom of their young playmakers, despite being relatively conservative with their exit strategy, favouring a clearance kick more than an ambitious run.

The Blues are making 1.5 fewer linebreaks per game than they were a season ago, making them the second-worst team in the comp in that area. That stat is a contributing factor to the Aucklanders making the least carry metres in the competition. The Blues have also been penalised the second most of any club in 2025.

This team just has not been scoring points at a rate anywhere near comparable to what they achieved in 2024, dropping from 35 per game to just 27, despite a more dynamic competition seeing many other teams increase their scoring average.

Similarities

Both sides love to attack blindside, looking to the short edge more often than any other team. Their set-piece success numbers are very similar, in both the scrum and lineout.

Both outfits are very efficient with their offload game, but are relatively unlikely to have those offloads lead directly to breaks or points.

Both attacks are slightly more likely to score points in the first half and boast similar 22 entries per game.

Both defences are stone-walled close to their own line, conceding the fewest points per opposition 22 entry in the competition.

The Blues love attacking in tight, making the fewest passes in the comp, being by far the least likely to send the ball past the first receiver and being the least likely to score on first phase.

The Crusaders’ attack profile shows they also favour tight carries, but are more likely to then send it wide, with second five-eighth David Havili at his best in a distributor role, and the pace of their outside backs, along with centre Braydon Ennor, proving to be damaging strike weapons.

What to look for

The Bues have named Zarn Sullivan at fullback for the game, perhaps an indication that they will look to pin the Crusaders deep in their own territory with accurate, tactical kicking. Beauden Barrett has excelled at that game in 2025.

Some quite remarkable territory numbers emerged from the last meeting between the two sides in round 10, when Barrett’s 11 kicks helped his side dominate field position with a 67 per cent territorial advantage. A whopping 50 per cent of the Blues’ possession was played inside the Crusaders’ 22.

It was a remarkable game, with just one linebreak registered by the Aucklanders and two from the Cantabrians. The Blues succumbed to 20 turnovers but more than doubled their opponents’ post-contact metres on nearly double the number of carries. The Crusaders are twice as likely as the Blues to score off turnovers this season.

The Crusaders played the bulk of their possession in the middle of the park, yet emerged as victors by repelling effort after effort before James O’Connor landed a game-winning penalty kick.

The Blues’ lineout defence was on fire against the Chiefs, and will come up against a Crusaders unit that has a clear preference for throwing to the front, where Laghlan McWhannell was dangerous in the Qualifying Final. In their last meeting, it was the Blues’ lineout that operated more efficiently.