Guinness Six Nations: Team by team expectations after Rd1
The first Six Nations tournament of a new Rugby World Cup cycle is always fascinating. Every side has something to prove on top of the usual pressure, many will be considering whether to stick or twist going forward, there are rankings to factor in… the list goes on.
On top of that, the Guinness Six Nations is one of the most fiercely competitive tournaments in sport. Despite being annual, no team has ever won it three years in a row. The pressure and prestige of the tournament means coaches can rarely be seen to disregard it for the “bigger picture”, whatever the circumstances.
This year, we have the added spice of four new coaches and a world cup with even more repercussions than usual. The expectations game is massive. And the opening round certainly added a layer of intrigue.
What does each team want, what’s their current state, and what fans might accept?
England
World cup runners-up, the most settled side, were favourites for the Six Nations going in. Anything less than first place would probably be a disappointment after the performances against Australia and New Zealand. That’s asking a lot, especially after the result of Le Crunch, but England have set the bar high at this point and Eddie Jones has repeatedly talked about being “the greatest team rugby has ever seen”.
In the run-up, England looked to have the most going for them, despite losing Billy Vunipola to yet another arm injury, and foregoing a specialist No8. Their squad is in pretty good shape and the selection of George Furbank at full-back added some excitement.
Elsewhere, the idea of opting for the carrying of Courtney Lawes on the blindside and moving Tom Curry to the base of the scrum, where he could play the type of role that both David Pocock and Josh Navidi managed so successfully, seemed plausible. The power of England’s tight five means they can probably pull this positional risk better than most. That was the theory…
After a disappointing first 60 minutes in France, how will Jones manage expectations going forward? Furbank has the ball-playing and running instincts that Jones seems to favour in his 15 jersey and he has certainly impressed for Saints this season but he was exposed against France. Will Daly return? Will Jones summon Alex Dombrandt to add the running lines England lacked against France?
It’s an extremely competitive year but, with this squad, England should be aiming for the title. Whether they achieve it or not now depends on how they bounce back from their opening round disappointment. But anything less than top two will definitely be a disappointment.
France
The hipster team of choice, definitely. After years of commentators saying, “you never know which France side will show up”, despite it repeatedly being an underwhelming one, France look like they could be back in all their unpredictable brilliance. New coach Fabien Galthié finally has the job he has wanted for so long, with a mandate to bring back both the glory days and the 2023 RWC trophy that France will be hosting.
To do so, he has gone all-in on youth, with an emphasis on the generation which culminated with back-to-back U20s titles and has been impressing in Europe. The average age of the side named to play England was 25, with the bench clocking in at a remarkable average of 23.5 years old. Their starting pack had a combined 85 caps. It did not stop them putting in a thrilling performance.
There were two moments of brilliance from Johnny May that will have new defence coach Sean Edwards fuming but their phase defence was vastly improved. England had sustained periods of play in the French 22 seven times without coming away with a try. If France can improve their fitness further, they are going to be formidable.
France are in a similar position to England in 2012 – a home world cup in three years time that might focus fans’ minds on performances and building blocks rather than immediate results, giving Galthié a little more room in the immediate term. However, the experience of England in 2015 means he won’t have a lot of rope in the long-term and, with a group of young players this talent and that first round performance under their belts, fans’ expectations are going to go through the roof.
Ireland
They are not the only team in this Six Nations to be bitterly disappointed with how their world cup ended – indeed, that could be said of every side – but perhaps nobody fell so far, so fast as Ireland. From topping the rankings and beating New Zealand twice in three attempts in the build-up, they flopped against Japan and were eviscerated by an All Blacks side who were clearly ready for them. Pride needs to be restored.
Given that Ireland’s ratio between success in the Six Nations and world cups is a little one-sided, new coach Andy Farrell might have been forgiven for prioritising RWC 2023 as part of a new broom approach. On the surface, however, continuity appears to be the word of the day. Half-back pairing Connor Murray and Johnny Sexton were retained for Round 1, despite questions over their form and durability.
Elsewhere, however, he made noticeable breaks with his predecessor’s regime. Joe Schmidt would name his team internally on a Monday and swear everyone to secrecy until it was announced on Thursday but Farrell named his on Tuesday and, in interviews after, mentioned his feelings about avoiding “paralysis through analysis”. He didn’t have to mention that many thought that was exactly what had troubled Ireland under Schmidt.
Lastly, and most excitingly, outside of 9 and 10, his first selections leant towards form. Caelan Doris, the young Leinster No8, has been outstanding, as have Andrew Conway and Jordan Larmour. Moreover, it was some of the more experienced players like CJ Stander and Peter O’Mahoney who got Ireland through an unconvincing first match. That said, Wales loom next and, if Ireland struggle at home, the pressure will increase.
Italy
On the surface, the easiest team to summarise. Nobody expected them to qualify for the quarter-finals of the world cup and nobody expects them to be anything other than sixth again, new coach or no. On paper, they remain the weakest squad – despite obvious improvement, they cannot seem to move forward quickly enough to catch the rest of the pack. If that weren’t enough, in the opening round, they were nilled by Wales.
No let-up yet regarding England's hottest Six Nations topic https://t.co/eGOPToajN9
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) February 5, 2020
Is that it? No. Wales put out arguably their strongest line-up, which teams rarely do against Italy. And the Azzuri also have a post-RWC point to prove: they almost certainly would not have beaten New Zealand to make the quarter-finals but, from their reaction to the cancellation of their game, they were obviously intending to give it everything they had to show the world just how far they had come. The fans, players, and new staff will all be hoping they get to do that here.
Teams in the Pro14 have discovered the consequences of only paying lip service to taking Benetton seriously and, with a back row of Sebastian Negri, Jake Polledri, and Brahm Steyn, a rapidly improving Tommaso Allan (still only 26, with 55 caps) at fly half, and Matteo Minozzi roaming the field, Italy should be tougher foes than they showed in the opening round.
Added to that, new coach Franco Smith is addressing their long-standing problem of leaving points on the field with the addition of Albert Keuris, the goal-kicking coach whose teams average 82%. Will Italy beat any other nation at full-strength? Possibly Scotland at home but even that isn’t likely. Could a team that sends their seconds out find themselves embarrassed? Quite possibly. In itself, that has consequences for a tournament as tough as the Guinness Six Nations.
Scotland
Another team who didn’t make the knockout stages in Japan, coming off comfortably worse to both Ireland and the host nation. Scotland also have the additional discomfort of questions being asked about the leadership at the SRU. Coach Gregor Townsend is one of only two remaining in his post and he has upped the stakes significantly by exiling star man and one of the form players in Europe, Finn Russell, from camp for an unspecified period of time. Losing to Ireland in a game where they were the superior side will not help the mood in camp or out.
On the other hand, Townsend has picked a promising squad with an eye to giving his talented backline players the front foot ball they need to excel, rewarding the form of Edinburgh’s Nick Haining and Rory Sutherland. Those two, allied with Glasgow’s Scott Cummings, already added a bit of much-needed bite to the Scottish pack.
Seems like the longer this continues, the harder it will be to kiss and make up https://t.co/YsTlv97Cql
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) February 4, 2020
Adam Hastings is no Finn Russell but he played well against Ireland, along with a rejuvenated Ali Price, and will back himself to pull some strings if his forwards can make the dent in their opponents. Stuart Hogg, having requested the captaincy, is clearly intent on making his presence felt after seven years and 72 caps of carrying Scottish hopes. His try-line blunder will only make him more determined.
Can the situation with Russell be resolved? Scotland have England and France at home, with Italy away sandwiched between but, if they can’t get up a head of steam before heading to Cardiff in the final round, Townsend might find himself increasingly unpopular with Russell as the leader of the opposition. The fly half is, after all, spending a lot of time in France these days.
Wales
Possibly the most interesting team in the Six Nations in terms of expectations. Last year’s Grand Slam holders came three points away from a first world cup final, despite an injury list to alarm the most sanguine of coaches. A few injuries remain as a hangover but the squad is mostly experienced, strong, and the right side of 30.
And yet, their most successful coach of the professional era, Warren Gatland, has departed after 12 years and a record-number of games. In his place is the much admired Wayne Pivac, whose unenviable task is to maintain Wales’ recent level of success while adding the flair that the golden team of the 70s were known for. That’s some ask.
Will Wales fans accept a lower rate of success for a more attractive playing style? Many have long-claimed they would but might feel differently after a tough tournament.
This doesn't sound good for the Wales playerhttps://t.co/ez3WFBpuSo
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) February 4, 2020
Such is the form of Dan Biggar currently that the two injuries at fly half, to Gareth Anscome and Rhys Patchell, are less concerning than they might otherwise be (although an early injury will make that picture considerably less rosy). At centre, things looked problematic but George North, controversially selected at 13, grew into the position well against Italy and Pivac’s canny swoop for Saracens’ Nick Tompkins know looks like a stroke of genius.
The performance against Italy was flawed, especially in the scrum, but there was plenty to entertain. If Wales finish in the top three while playing the rugby his Scarlets side did so well, fans will probably be content – for now. Wales could definitely aim higher, however – and, after so much success under Gatland, the expectation level is much higher.
Tags: Six Nations
Comments on RugbyPass
Thanks for that Marshy, noticed you didn't say who is gonna win it. We know who ain't gonna win it - your Crusaders outfit. They've gone from having arguably the best Super Rugby first five ever, to having a clutch of rookies. Hurricanes all the way!
1 Go to commentsGeez you really have to question the NRLs ability to produce players of quality. Its pathetic. Dont the 25mil in Aus produce enough quality womens players. Sad.
1 Go to commentsBulls fan here, and agree 100% with the conclusion (and little else) of this article. SA sides should absolutely f-off from the champs cup until we get fair scheduling, equal support for travel arrangements and home semis. You know, like all the european teams get.
20 Go to commentsI’m yet to see why Grace would be an ABs contender. He’s pedestrian and lacks the dominance required of a top flight 8.
8 Go to commentsGee my Highlanders were terrible. They have gone backwards since the start of the season. The trouble began when we left Millar behind to prep as the 10 against the Brumbies and he was disconnected from the team that came back from Aussie. We rested Patchell for that game and we blew an avalanche of ball in good attacking positions in the 1st half. Against the Rebels we seem to of gone into a pod system with forwards hanging off from the breakdown leaving Fakatava to secure our ball!
72 Go to commentsPot Kettle, the English and French teams have done it for years.
20 Go to commentsHas virtually played every minute of previous games. Back row of Li Lo Willie , Grace and Blackadder would be the 1. Crusaders issue is a very average 1st 5 who cannot run. Kicking in general play is also below par They need to put Yong Kemara in. He must have so.e talent for them to bring him down from Waikato. Hoehepa would struggle to play in so.e club sided
8 Go to commentsI hope this a good thing making all these changes!
2 Go to commentsThe Hurricanes are good, especially with a decent coach now. However, let’s be real, the Crusaders and Chiefs are clearly a good degree weaker without the players they’ve lost overseas now. The Canes lost one player. It’s also why the aussie teams ‘seem’ to be stronger.
9 Go to commentsOr you could develop your own players instead of constantly taking from the SH competition and weakening it in the process? With all the player and financial resources these unions have compared to SH countries you’d think they could manage that, or is weakening the SH comps and their national sides an added bonus? Probably.
3 Go to commentsNot so fast Aaron, we might need you in black yet lol. God knows he’d be a lot less nerve-racking than hot and (very) cold players like Perofeta. It’s really a shame Reuben Love isn’t playing 10, we’ve got enough 15 options.
4 Go to commentsAnd those from the NH still seem to be puzzled (and delighted) why NZ’s depth isn’t what it once was. Over 600 NZ players overseas, that’s insane. This sort of deal is why Super Rugby coaches have admitted they struggle now to find enough quality to fill out their squads.
6 Go to commentsArticle intéressant ! La question devrait régulièrement se poser pour les jeunes français originaires de Nouvelle-Calédonie, Wallis-et-Futuna et de Polynésie entre la Nouvelle-Zélande et la Métropole… Difficile pour la fédération française de rugby de se positionner : soit le choix est fait de dénicher les jeunes talents et de les faire venir très tôt en Métropole, au risque de les déraciner, soit on prend le risque de se les faire “piller” par les All Blacks qui, telle une araignée, essaye de récupérer tous les talents des îles du Pacifique… À la France de se défendre en développant l’aura du XV de France et des clubs français dans ses collectivités d’Outre-mer !
3 Go to commentsWrong bay. He needs to come to the REAL BAY which is Bay Of Plenty and have a crack at making the Chiefs.
3 Go to commentsIs Barrett going play full back??? They already have all the centers…
15 Go to commentsForgive my ignorance, I might not fully understand so would appreciate clarification: Didn’t the Bulls have to fly with three different carriers, paid for by the South African Rugby Union, whilst Edinburgh got a chartered flight sponsored by EPCR? Also, as far as I understand it South African teams don’t yet share in the revenue from the competition and are not allowed to host Semi-finals or Finals at home. Surely if everyone wants South Africans to “take the competition seriously” then they must make South Africans feel welcome, allow them to share in the revenue, and give them the same levels of access as the teams from the other countries. Just a reminder that South Africa has a large and passionate Rugby audience. Just by virtue of our teams being a part of these competitions means that more of us are likely to watch the knockout games, even if our teams haven’t qualified. It would be silly to alienate such a large audience by making them feel unwelcome.
20 Go to commentsFirst of all. This guy is very much behind the curve. All the bleating, whingeing, whining and moaning took place days ago already. Not adding anything to the topic other than more bleating, whingeing, whining and moaning. 🍼 Second of all, not one mention of the fact that South African teams can’t get home semi finals or finals. The tournament was undermined and devalued by the administrators. 🤡 Thirdly, football teams often have to juggle selections in mid week games, premier games, champions league games etc. and will from time to time prioritize certain titles over others. 🐒 And lastly FEK Neil, and anyone else for that matter, for insisting on telling teams how to manage themselves. If they make what is largely a business decision that suits them and doesn’t suit you - tough shite. 💩 It’s not rocket science as to why the Bulls did what they did. If this guy is too slow to figure it out (and is deliberately not mentioning one of the key reasons why) then he isn’t a journalist. He should join the rest of us pundit plebs in comments section. 🥴
20 Go to commentsSo the first door to knock on Rob is Parliament followed by HMRC. The Irish Revenue deliver a 40% tax relief rebate on the HIGHEST EARNING TEN YEARS of every pro Irish rugby players contract earnings at retirement. That goes a long way to both retaining their best talent and freeing up wages for marquee players. Who knows, if that had been in place in the UK, you might not have been able to poach Hoggy and Jonny Gray from Glasgow…!!!
3 Go to comments1. True, if that “free” ticket means access to all but the prized exhibit - EVIP only. SA cannot host semis, even if they’ve earned it (see Sharks vs ASM Clermont Auvergne at… Twickenham Stoop). 2. Why no selective outrage over Lyon doing the exact same thing a week earlier? Out of all the countries France send the most “B teams”, why nobody talking about “disrespect” and “prioritising domestic leagues” and “kicking them out”? 3. Why no mention of the Sharks fielding all of their Springboks for the second rate Challenge cup QF? No commitment? 4. Why no mention of all the SA teams qualifying for respective euro knock out comps in the two seasons they’ve been in it? How many euro teams have qualified for KO’s in their history? Can’t compete? 5. Why no mention of SA teams beating French and English giants La Rochelle and Saracens? How many euro teams have done that in their history? Add no quality? The fact is that SA teams are only in their second season in europe, with no status and a fraction of the resources. Since joining the URC, SA has seen a repatriation of a number of players, and this will only grow once SA start sharing in the profits of competing in these comps, meaning bigger squads with greater depth and quality, meaning they don’t have to prioritise comps as they have to now - they don’t have imports from Pacifica and South America and everywhere else in between like “European” teams have - also less “Saffas” in Prem and T14, that’s what we want right? 'If the South Africans are in, they need to be all in' True, and we have to ensure we give them the same status and resources as we give everyone else to do just that. A small compromise on scheduling will go a long way in avoiding these situations, but guess what, France and England wont compromise on scheduling because they ironically… prioritise their domestic comps, go figure!
20 Go to commentsthe success of the premiership can be summarized by : only 10 teams. It makes a huge difference with the overcrowded top 14 (let us not talk about Leinster and URC…)
2 Go to comments