Joe Schmidt is yet to make up his mind on one key area
Predictable is a word that has been thrown at Ireland a lot over the past few months.
It is no secret that Ireland teams tend to play a certain way, and under Joe Schmidt that has generally served them well.
Ireland like to go through the phases, with many of their tries coming off the back of well rehearsed set plays.
As pointed out by Warren Gatland recently, Ireland rarely tend to mix up their approach, and unless Schmidt has something special up his sleeve, we will see more of the same in Japan.
Yet it is not just Ireland’s approach which has become predicable. For the most part, the starting XV is nailed on, and has been for some time now.
It has not been a vintage season for Ireland, but outside of some injury-enforced changes, there will no be major selection surprises in Schmidt’s starting XV come the Pool A opener against Scotland on Sunday. Even those players who have suffered a particularly bad dip in form, such as captain Rory Best, will be trusted to deliver.
The only area of Schmidt’s starting team where there is genuine uncertainty is the back-row.
In fact, Schmidt hasn’t been settled on his back-row for over a year. The last time he picked the same back-row combination for successive games was March 2018.
Over the course of Ireland’s four warm-up games it was the one area where the New Zealander looked to be really experimenting.
Ireland full-back Rob Kearney has emerged as a major doubt for Sunday's World Cup clash with Scotland.https://t.co/NzEiSRFbBS
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Not only did Schmidt experiment with the personnel in his back-row, he also moved some of his most trusted lieutenants to less familiar surroundings.
In their World Cup warm-up game against Wales in Cardiff, Schmidt started Peter O’Mahony at openside. The following week, the Ireland head coach played CJ Stander at No 6.
It is possible that Schmidt is just future-proofing in case injury hits his squad again. At the 2015 World Cup, Ireland crashed out in the quarter-finals against Argentina with Johnny Sexton, Peter O’Mahony, Paul O’Connell and Jared Payne all sidelined, along with the suspended Sean O’Brien.
Yet there is also a feeling that Schmidt is unsure what his best back-row combination is, as it the one area of his squad that has been heavily disrupted by injuries.
Schmidt lost Leinster flanker Dan Leavy to a horrific knee injury in April. The 25 year old has been a regular starter for Ireland, and had he stayed fit, would likely have worn the No 7 shirt against Scotland next Sunday.
Schmidt has also had to plan for the tournament without Sean O’Brien, who underwent hip surgery at the end of Leinster’s Pro14 winning campaign. While not the ball-carrying destructive force of old, O’Brien still remained part of Schmidt’s plans before injury forced his hand. Just two years ago, O’Brien was the outstanding performer for the British and Irish Lions in their 24-21 defeat of New Zealand.
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Jordi Murphy is another player who has caused the All Blacks problems in the past, but misses out on this squad despite always delivering for Ireland.
Of those that did make the plane to Japan, none can be certain of their place in Schmidt’s first choice XV.
As it stands, Schmidt is expected to field a back-row consisting of O’Mahony, Josh van der Flier, and Stander on Sunday.
But even stalwarts like O’Mahony and Stander have come under scrutiny this season.
Stander’s place in the Ireland team has been up for debate for some time now. Like O’Brien, his ball carrying abilities have failed to hit the heights of old. Leinster’s Jack Conan offers a more dynamic threat in the No 8 jersey. Yet while Conan has consistently delivered for Leinster, there is a feeling Schmidt isn’t fully convinced of his abilities.
If Stander is at anything but his battering-ram best in Japan, the calls to include Conan will only increase. Conan is certain to start at least one of Ireland’s pool games, and will aim to use the occasion as a platform to force his way into the team for the bigger tests that lay down the line.
O’Mahony’s place is more secure, if not quite guaranteed. Like many of his teammates, the Munster captain struggled for form throughout the season. He was part of the back-row that was bullied by England in March, and also played in August’s thrashing at Twickenham.
It would be a major surprise if Schmidt were to drop O’Mahony, with his leadership particularly important, but there are enough rivals snipping at his heels to keep him under pressure, and there is certainly a possibility of him being shifted to openside to allow someone else step into the No 6 shirt.
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Van der Flier is probably the most at risk of the three. While he has performed well for Ireland, he lacks the level of physicality and brute force that will be needed in a potential quarter-final against New Zealand or South Africa.
Rhys Ruddock will be pushing for inclusion, while Schmidt can also call on Iain Henderson and Tadhg Beirne.
Henderson is widely expected to parter James Ryan in the second-row, but the Ulster player can comfortably slot into the back-row should Schmidt look to change things around. Beirne is well used to switching between the second-row and back-row, and Schmidt outlined that versatility as key to his inclusion, while he also brings huge presence to the lineout.
Ruddock made the cut on the back of another fine season with Leinster, and is clearly highly regarded by Schmidt given how often he has captained his country.
It all adds up to what promises to be the most hotly contested area of Ireland’s squad.
We can safely assume what back-row combination will start against Scotland on Sunday. Schmidt’s record suggests that selection will be broken up before the end of Ireland’s campaign.
The Rugby Pod discuss Ireland’s World Cup squad
Comments on RugbyPass
🤦♂️🤣 who cares who’s the best . All I know is the All Blacks have the star coach but have few star players now …
27 Go to commentsJe suis sûr que Farrell est impatient de jouer avec Lopez et Machenaud et d’être entraîné par Collazo… 🤭
1 Go to commentsAn on field red (aka a full red) in SRP must surely carry a bigger suspension than a red card given by the bunker as that carries a 20 minute team punishment. Had Damon Murphy abdicated his responsibility as a ref and issued both Drua players a yellow, which would have been upgraded to a 20 minute red by the bunker, that would have killed Australia and New Zealand’s push for the 20 minute red to be trialled globally from July this year.
11 Go to commentsEver so often you all post a Danny Care story that isn’t the announcement that he has finally re-signed for one more, victory tour season at Quins and I’m just like, “well you fooled me again!” My absolute favorite player ever, we need to make his final year at the Stoop (and Twickers) official already. I know he supposedly snubbed France but I won’t feel better until he signs.
1 Go to commentslate hit what late hit it wasn’t at all late and can clearly see he was committed before the tackle
1 Go to commentsChristian Lio -Willies 2 try perfomance was a standout. As was captain Scott Barrett. Up front was where the boys won it.They are a great team and players. Fantastic Crusades , you can keep going.
1 Go to commentsI don't know how the locals feel about that? I guess if you call yourselves the Worcester Wasps that might be appease. But really we need more teams in the Premiership in my view so they are not padding it out as they are at the moment. It might curtail so many players going abroad as well
5 Go to commentsNZ 😭😭😭is certainly rivaling England for best whingers cup!😭😭😭 !!!
27 Go to commentsYup. New Zealand won 3 out of 10 world cups played. SA 4 out of 8 attempts 30 Vs 50 per cent.🤔🤔
27 Go to commentsShould've done this years ago. Change Saturday kick off times to around 11am. Up and off and back home before 3pm, limit travel time too. Allows players to actually do something else with their Saturday that's family oriented or being rugby fans they could ‘watch’ pro rugby. Increases crowds etc. How can anyone that enjoys grassroots and pro rugby have to choose between the two on Saturdays?
9 Go to commentsI bet he inspired those supporters just as much.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
27 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
9 Go to commentsPick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to commentsLike tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
27 Go to commentsHaving overseas possessions in 2024 is absurd. These Frenchies should have to give the New Caledonians their freedom.
21 Go to commentsBell injured his foot didn’t he? Bring Tupou in he’ll deliver when it counts. Agree mostly but I would switch in the Reds number 8 Harry Wilson for Swinton and move Rob Valentini to 6 instead. Wilson is a clever player who reads the play, you can’t outmuscle the AB’s and Springboks, if you have any chance it’s by playing clever. Same goes for Paisami, he’s a little guy who doesn’t really trouble the likes of De Allende and Jordie Barrett. I’d rather play Carter Gordon at 12 and put Michael Lynagh’s boy at 10. That way you get a BMT type goalkicker at 10 and a playmaker at 12. Anyways, just my two cents as a Bok supporter.
14 Go to commentsThanks Brett, love your articles which are alway pertinent. It’s a difficult topic trying to have a panel adjudicating consistently penalties for red card issues. Many of the mitigating reasons raised are judged subjectively, hence the different outcomes. How to take away subjective opinions?
11 Go to comments