Losers all-round in World Cup cancellations - but biggest victims still to be decided
It’s the outcome that no one was hoping for, but that many expected might occur: two Rugby World Cup matches have been called off due to the impending arrival of Typhoon Hagibis, and there’s still a chance for at least one more cancellation.
Earlier today, World Rugby announced that the fixtures between New Zealand and Italy in Toyota, and England and France in Yokohama were to be designated nil-all draws.
A decision has yet to be made on Sunday’s game between Japan and Scotland – a match which could have huge repercussions on the final standings at the end of the group stages of the 2019 tournament.
Big ticks for safety-first approach
World Rugby have rightly taken a safety-first approach to the coming storm.
The ‘super typhoon’ is telegraphed to do an extensive amount of damage, particularly in the Tokyo region, which has caused World Rugby to wisely reconsider hosting the two major games in Yokohama.
Fans will be frustrated that they won’t be able to attend at least one highly anticipated match, between England and France. Although Japan’s game against Scotland is still on schedule for Sunday, World Rugby could make a later announcement to also cancel that fixture.
Fan frustration is the least important consideration, however, when it comes to potentially life-threatening storms and World Rugby should be applauded for making the smart choice.
Every avenue explored?
In the days leading up to the announcement, rumours were rife regarding what would be the outcomes of matches if they couldn’t be played on the scheduled time and date.
It was always going to be immensely difficult moving the two matches played at Yokohama Stadium (between England and France, and Japan and Scotland) due to the sheer size of the venue.
70,000 fans have booked tickets to each Yokohama game and there’s simply no way to accommodate all those fans at any of the other obvious venues around the country.
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That rules out any chances of fans getting access to a replacement game, as there would simply be no way to fairly allocate tickets.
The common rumour seemed to be that the two Yokohama games would instead be played in a roofed stadium, away from the eyes of the public. This solution would ensure that no games were outright cancelled and the integrity of the tournament would be maintained.
It was one that evidently did not satisfy World Rugby.
“The decision to cancel matches has not been taken lightly and has been made in the best interests of public, team, tournament personnel and volunteer safety, based on expert advice and detailed weather information,” said tournament director Alan Gilpin.
“While we have extensively explored all options, public and team safety was our utmost priority as well as ensuring a consistent, fair and equitable outcome for all teams.”
Japan no stranger to typhoons
Questions can rightly be asked as to why greater contingency options didn’t exist in the first place.
World Rugby haven’t disclosed why games can’t be played elsewhere (nor do they have to), simply suggesting that it would be too much of a logistical nightmare.
Surely, given Japan’s ten years of preparations for this event, the logistics could have been determined in advance of matches?
. @danleo82 on what's next for Fiji.
Maybe an expanded RC (Southern Hemisphere Six Nations) feat. @fijirugby and @JRFURugby ? https://t.co/KMK9Jf6sGy
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) October 9, 2019
Japan, of course, are no strangers to typhoons.
The country is regularly buffeted by heavy winds and intense rainfall over the stormy season – which conveniently takes place over the period of the Rugby World Cup.
There should have been every expectation by the tournament organisers that a major typhoon could disrupt primary World Cup plans, so contingencies should have been in place from right from the get-go.
Top teams undercooked heading into quarterfinals
England, France and New Zealand, the three sides involved in cancelled games who will partake in the finals, will head into the sudden death stages of the competition feeling somewhat undercooked.
France and New Zealand both kicked off the tournament with tough games, against Argentina and South Africa respectively, but have not come up against a tier 1 side since.
France were at least challenged by a galvanised Tongan team on Sunday, but New Zealand have cruised through their latest two games, winning 63-0 against Canada ten 71-9 against Namibia.
The All Blacks also haven’t fielded their top team since that initial game against the Springboks and rested and rotated their players in their most recent games, which could see them entering the playoffs (against one on Japan, Ireland or Scotland) lacking cohesion.
Brodie Retallick, who’s only just returned from a shoulder injury, has accrued just 30 minutes of game time.
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You would have to think that NZ head coach Steve Hansen was quite looking forward to fielding his top side against Italy, so as to at least give his team a good hit-out heading into the quarters.
Instead, New Zealand will enter sudden death rugby having not played a game in two weeks, and having not played a competitive game in a month.
Last time New Zealand had such an easy pool was at the 2007 World Cup, where they were knocked out in the quarterfinals.
It’s a similar scenario for England, who were counting on getting their first proper challenge of the tournament from the feisty French.
England’s biggest game to date was against Argentina, who played with 14 men for the majority of the match. They’ve conceded just 20 points in the tournament and notched up 35 or more in all their matches.
That’s hardly what you’d call ideal preparation for going up against the Wallabies, who had two tough pool games against Fiji and Wales.
Unprecedented rests for tournament favourites
The other side of the coin, of course, is that some teams will enter the quarterfinals with two week rests for the first time in the competition’s history.
“We’re excited at the prospect of having a great preparation for the final now,” said England coach Eddie Jones after learning that his side’s game against France was to be called off.
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Wales, who France will face in their quarterfinal, will enter sudden death a week and a half after being battered, bruised and almost bested by Fiji – they’ve also got one more fixture to play, against Uruguay. Flyhalf Dan Biggar may not be available for the quarterfinal after copping a heavy blow from his own teammate in the game with Fiji – what would Warren Gatland have given to be able to skip that fixture?
It’ll be a similar story for Ireland, who will face either South Africa or New Zealand barely a week after having to deal to the sizeable Samoan team.
England, France and New Zealand will have an exceptional amount of time to rest up and prepare for the impending sudden death games – but will the gross amount of time off be a help or a hinderance?
Scotland on path to redemption or ejection?
A decision is yet to be made on Sunday’s crucial fixture between Scotland and Japan.
The final scheduled match of the group stages of the World Cup would decide who of the two competing teams will progress through to the quarterfinals.
Two competition points for Japan would lock up top spot in the pool, even if Ireland get a bonus point win over Samoa on Friday. Scotland, on the other hand, would need to earn at least four more competition points from the game than Scotland. That effectively means they need either a bonus point win, or a regular win but by more than 7 points.
Plenty of mid-table movement in the power #rwc2019 rankings
– writes @alexshawsport https://t.co/tiWsLpuRpr
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) October 9, 2019
If the match is cancelled, then Japan will progress from Pool A as the top-seeded team, booking them a game against South Africa.
Scotland, have come out of the gates slowly at this World Cup but have found some form in recent weeks, would be favourites to win Sunday’s match, despite Japan’s rich run of form, and will be profoundly frustrated if their match is called off.
Already pundits are frustrated at the fact that matches have been cancelled for the first time in World Cup history, but the greatest victims of the cancellations are still yet to be decided. Will it be the teams that will miss out on significant challenges before entering sudden death, the sides that have to go up against well-rested opposition come the quarterfinals, or the nation that started slowly but was looking to finish the group stages with a flourish?
Ardie Savea is still adjusting to the goggle life:
Comments on RugbyPass
Both nations missed a great opportunity to book a game that would have had a lot of interest from around the world. I understand these games can’t be organised in 5 minutes but they should have found a way to make it happen. I don’t think Wales are ducking anyone but it’s a bad look haha.
3 Go to commentsIt will be fascinating to see the effect that Jo Yapp has. If they can compete with Canada and give BFs a run for their money that will be progress
1 Go to commentsFollowing his dream and putting in the work. Go well young fella!
3 Go to commentsPerhaps filling Twickenham is one of Mitchell’s KPIs. I doubt whether both September matches will be at Twickenham on consecutive weekends. I would take the BF one to a large provincial stadium so as not to give them the advantage and experience of playing at Twickenham before a large crowd prior to the RWC.
1 Go to commentsvery unfortunate for Kitshoff, but big opportunity potentially for Nché to prove he is genuinely the best loosehead in the world, rather than just a specialist finisher. Presuming that if Kitshoff is out, it will also give Steenekamp a chance to come into the 23? Or are others likely to be ahead of him?
1 Go to commentsA long held question in popular culture asks if art imitates life or does the latter influence the former? Over this 6 nations I can ask the same question of the media influencing the thoughts of its audience or vice versa. Nobody wants to see cricket scores in rugby, as a spectacle it is not sustainable. With so many articles about England’s procession and lack of competition it feeds the epicaricacy of many looking for an opportunity to pounce. England are not the first team to dominate nor does it happen only in rugby, think Federer, Nadal, Red Bull or Mercedes, Manchester Utd, Australia in tests and World Cups. Instead of celebrating the achievements why find reasons to falsify it pointing towards larger playing pool, professional for a longer period or mitigate with the lack of growth in other nations. Can we not enjoy it while it is here and know that it won’t last for ever, others coveting what England have will soon take the crown, ask the aforementioned?
6 Go to commentsShame he won’t turn out for the Netherlands now they’re improving. U20s are Euro champs and in the U20 Trophy this year. The senior sides gets better every year too.
3 Go to commentsWill rugbypass tv be showing these games?
1 Go to commentsWell where do you start, the fact that England have a professional domestic league and Ireland’s is fully amatuer, that they have fully seperated professional squads at Fifteens and Sevens (7’s thinly disguised as GB), and Ireland have fully pro Sevens squad who loan some players back to the Semi-Professional Fifteens squad (moved from amateur for only a year or so) for a few games at 6N & RWC’s. The Women’s games is a shambles, and is at risk of killing itself by pushing for professionalism when the market isn’t really there to support it outside one or two countnries..
6 Go to commentsWayne Smith's input didn't have as much impact on the last final as Davison's red card for Thompson. England were 14 points up and flying when that happened.
6 Go to commentsBilly's been playing consistently well for 2 - 3 seasons now and deserves a look in at the top level. Ioane and ALB are still first choice but there needs to be injury cover and succession. His partnership with Jordie gives him first dibs you'd think. Go the Hurricanes.
3 Go to commentsIt’s not up to Wales to support Georgian Rugby. That’s up to International Rugby and Georgia. I sympathise with Georgia’s decent attempt to create this fixture. But for Wales the proposed match up is just a potential stick to beat them with and a potential big psychological blow that young Welsh team doesn’t need. (I’m Irish BTW.)
3 Go to commentsCale certainly looks great in space, but as you say, he has struggled in contact. At 23 years old, turning 24 this year, he should be close to full physical maturity and yet there exists a considerable gap in the power and physicality required for international rugby. Weight doesn’t automatically equate to power and physicality either. Can he go from a player who’s being physically dominated in Super rugby to physically dominating in international rugby in 1 or 2 years? That’s a big ask but he may end up being a late bloomer.
28 Go to commentsIf rugby wants to remain interesting in the AI era then it will need to work on changing the rules. AI will reduce the tactical advantage of smart game plans, will neutralize primary attacking weapons, and will move rugby from a being a game of inches to a game of millimetres. It will be about sheer athleticism and technique,about avoiding mistakes, and about referees. Many fans will find that boring. The answer is to add creative degrees of freedom to the game. The 50-22 is an example. But we can have fun inventing others, like the right to add more players for X minutes per game, or the equivalent of the 2-point conversion in American football, the ability to call a 12-player scrum, etc. Not saying these are great ideas, but making the point that the more of these alternatives you allow, the less AI will be able to lock down high-probability strategies. This is not because AI does not have the compute power, but because it has more choices and has less data, or less-specific data. That will take time and debate, but big, positive and immediate impact could be in the area of ref/TMO assistance. The technology is easily good enough today to detect forward passes, not-straight lineouts, offside at breakdown/scrum/lineout, obstruction, early/late tackles, and a lot of other things. WR should be ultra aggressive in doing this, as it will really help in an area in which the game is really struggling. In the long run there needs to be substantial creativity applied to the rules. Without that AI (along with all of the pro innovations) will turn rugby into a bash fest.
24 Go to commentsSouth Africa rarely play Ireland and France on these tours. Mostly, England, Scotland and Wales. I wonder why
2 Go to commentsIt was a let’s-see-what-you're-made-of type of a game. The Bulls do look good when the opposition allows them to, but Munster shut them down, and they could not find a way through. Jake should be very worried about their chances in the competition.
2 Go to commentsHats off to Fabian for a very impressive journey to date. Is it as ‘uniquely unlikely’ as Rugby Pass suggests, given Anton Segner’s journey at the Blues?
3 Go to commentsSad that this was not confirmed. When administrators talk about expanding the game they evidently don’t include pathways to the top tier of rugby for teams outside of the old boys club. Rugby deserves better, and certainly Georgia does.
3 Go to commentsLions might take him on if they move on Van Rooyen but I doubt he will want to go back, might consider it a step backwards for himself. Sharks would take him on but if Plumtree goes on to win the challenge cup they will keep him on. Also sharks showing some promising signs recently. Stormers and Bulls are stable and Springboks are already filled up. Quality coach though, interesting to see where he ends up
1 Go to commentsAnd the person responsible for creating a culture of accountability is?
3 Go to comments