2021 Lions tour: Who Warren Gatland will pick versus who he should pick
Given the twists and turns professional rugby has been forced to take over the past twelve months or so, you could be forgiven for not getting truly excited about the British and Irish Lions tour of South Africa until Warren Gatland and all the players are safe aboard the plane and on their way to Cape Town.
That said, head coach Gatland announced the rest of his coaching ticket on Tuesday to much fanfare with Gregor Townsend, Steve Tandy, Robin McBride and Neil Jenkins confirmed as assistant coaches for the tour. The combination of Gatland and Townsend on the staff should be enough to have even the most despondent Lions fan cautiously optimistic for what could be a very exciting tour.
Assuming the global pandemic plays ball and the Lions are able to board that plane, Gatland is set to take a 36-man squad to South Africa, with the reduction in size only further reinforcing the need for positional versatility amongst those players ultimately selected.
The recent Guinness Six Nations was a great gauge of form, while the Gallagher Premiership and Guinness PRO14 Rainbow Cup (if the latter goes ahead) will also be an important showcase for those players not already cemented in Gatland’s mind. If the Kiwi doesn’t already have 32 or 33 of his squad all but confirmed in his head by now, it would be very surprising.
Gatland and his assistants boast current or recent experience in Ireland, Scotland and Wales but with no representation from England or the Premiership, it remains to be seen if that will influence the final make-up of the Lions group. Nevertheless, we have attempted below to predict Gatland’s 36-man squad – as well as our own – and examine where and why the two squads might diverge.
Gatland's new staff have got straight down to business, identifying 57 potential picks for the likely 36-strong Lions squad https://t.co/4685z9NiO3
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) April 14, 2021
PROP
Gatland’s selection (7) – Mako Vunipola, Cian Healy, Wyn Jones, Tadhg Furlong, Kyle Sinckler, Zander Fagerson, Andrew Porter;
Alex Shaw’s selection (7) – Mako Vunipola, Cian Healy, Ellis Genge, Tadhg Furlong, Kyle Sinckler, Zander Fagerson, Andrew Porter.
Going with seven props in a 36-man squad means you will have to sacrifice elsewhere, but the Springboks’ World Cup final win over England – their last competitive outing – shows just what a potent weapon the scrum is in their arsenal. Having sufficient depth to rotate players and keep them fresh for the Test series will be key for Gatland.
Genge’s stock may not have soared as highly this season as it did in the previous campaign, but the loosehead brings valuable ball-carrying to the mix and has shown multiple times now with England the energy and impetus he can bring off the bench. In Porter, Gatland would have someone that can cover both sides of the scrum and although not regularly used at loosehead anymore, his ability to get training reps on both sides would be important should the Lions suffer any short-term injuries in the front row.
HOOKER
Gatland’s selection (3) – Ken Owens, Jamie George, Luke Cowan-Dickie;
Alex Shaw’s selection (4) – Ken Owens, Jamie George, Ronan Kelleher, Alfie Barbeary.
Owens was the form hooker in the Six Nations while George has held that accolade in the northern hemisphere for much of the last two or three years. Gatland would be comfortable with both around the set-piece while Cowan-Dickie is more consistent there than he is given credit for, not to mention bringing impressive physicality in the loose.
Another option is Ireland’s Kelleher, with the younger hooker having impressed for Leinster and on the international scene. A wildcard at this point, Barbeary missed out on a potential England debut during the Six Nations due to injury. He brings the kind of dynamism in the loose that will be needed to capitalise on any set-piece parity or advantage that the Lions get, not to mention being equally adept in the back row.
SECOND ROW
Gatland’s selection (5) – Maro Itoje, Alun Wyn Jones, James Ryan, Tadhg Beirne, Iain Henderson;
Alex Shaw’s selection (5) – Maro Itoje, Alun Wyn Jones, James Ryan, Tadhg Beirne, George Kruis.
The trio of Itoje, Jones and Ryan would seem to pick themselves based on how they have played over the past couple of seasons. The trio bring a complementary mix of leadership, set-piece efficiency and ability in the loose.
Based on the Six Nations, Gatland will be hard-pressed to ignore the turnover machine that is Beirne while Henderson was also excellent for Ireland in Ryan’s absence. Kruis, however, should still be high on Gatland’s radar, with England’s lacklustre performances and uncustomary set-piece issues a strong indication of how much Kruis brought to the mix before his departure for Japan.
"Using the players this way is wrong"
– @chrisjonespress has learned that Lions boss Gatland picked the wrong day to go public with his threat over Premiership-based players
https://t.co/iApCWxOTYP— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) April 14, 2021
BACK ROW
Gatland’s selection (7) – Justin Tipuric, Tom Curry, Hamish Watson, Sam Underhill, Taulupe Faletau, CJ Stander, Billy Vunipola;
Alex Shaw’s selection (6) – Justin Tipuric, Tom Curry, Hamish Watson, Sam Underhill, Taulupe Faletau, CJ Stander.
There is plenty of debate to be had in the back row, with none of the four nations lacking for options to put forward. Physically abrasive players like Jamie Ritchie, Mark Wilson and Rhys Ruddock are also worth mentioning, especially with the dominance of the jackal over the past few years seeming to subside lately.
That said, ball security is something the Boks will pride themselves on in the summer and the threat Tipuric, Curry and Watson pose would give the Lions the opportunity to hurt their hosts in transition. Combined with the physicality in the tackle that the likes of Underhill, Stander and Faletau bring, Gatland would back his side to prosper at the contact area.
The selection or non-selection of Vunipola could be a telling domino not only in the back row but also the composition of the pack in general. Sam Simmonds, anyone?
SCRUM-HALF
Gatland’s selection (3) – Conor Murray, Ben Youngs, Gareth Davies;
Alex Shaw’s selection (3) – Conor Murray, Ben Youngs, Ali Price.
Despite his form having fluctuated a little over the past twelve months, Murray is still the most complete scrum-half at the Lions’ disposal and his array and accuracy of passing to his pack close to the ruck or coming around the corner will be invaluable in South Africa. Youngs knows how to manage a game and his selection would be just reward after missing out on the tour to New Zealand in 2017 for family reasons.
The duel between Davies and Price is an interesting one, with Davies being a man that Gatland knows well and trusts, while Price was impressive during the Six Nations and brings chemistry with a potential partner at fly-half.
First it was Exeter and now Bath have had their say over the Premiership club controversy Gatland went public with on Tuesday https://t.co/Ci8qIvwS2J
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) April 15, 2021
OUT-HALF
Gatland’s selection (3) – Owen Farrell, Dan Biggar, Finn Russell;
Alex Shaw’s selection (3) – Owen Farrell, Dan Biggar, Finn Russell.
Leaving Johnny Sexton out of a potential Lions squad feels almost sacrilegious given his consistency over the past decade but with Farrell, Biggar and Russell all pushing, has the odometer just ticked a little too far for the Irishman?
Although not traditionally what you might consider a ‘Gatland fly-half’, Russell should see his chances boosted by the inclusion of Townsend on the coaching staff. Despite some issues off the pitch, the pairing have had a good amount of success on it. Russell’s ability to open up a game would be a nice contrast for the Lions to call upon should the game plan with Farrell or Biggar not be working.
CENTRE
Gatland’s selection (4) – Robbie Henshaw, Jonathan Davies, George North, Garry Ringrose;
Alex Shaw’s selection (4) – Robbie Henshaw, Jonathan Davies, George North, Manu Tuilagi.
Versatility is the name of the game with a smaller-than-normal squad and that is something that pushes North, who has prospered at 13 and wing, ahead of the likes of Henry Slade or Huw Jones. Henshaw was sublime during the Six Nations and Davies is one of Gatland’s most trusted lieutenants.
If Tuilagi can prove his fitness between now and the end of the season he is a hard option to ignore, even without a whole lot of competitive rugby in the past year. Slade could well be in this mix, too, should Gatland want another adept ball-player in his Lions midfield and not be content alone with the option of moving Farrell into the No12 jersey.
BACK THREE
Gatland’s selection (4) – Anthony Watson, Stuart Hogg, Elliot Daly, Liam Williams;
Alex Shaw’s selection (4) – Anthony Watson, Stuart Hogg, Elliot Daly, Liam Williams.
The decision to opt for seven props comes back to bite you in the back three – although with North able to also cover on the wing and all four options above capable of playing across the back three, there is scope to adjust for injuries. That said, it would not be surprising to see Gatland drop to six props or just carry three out-and-out midfielders, with Farrell also covering at No12.
Watson, Hogg and Williams were all in good form during the Six Nations and are players that Gatland knows and trusts. Despite not having the most impactful Six Nations, Daly also ticks that trust box for Gatland with his performances in New Zealand four years ago particularly impressive, not to mention the fact he will add a penalty threat from 60 metres at altitude.
If Gatland does go for a larger group in the back three, one of Josh Adams, Jonny May and Duhan van der Merwe would likely be in pole position.
Andy Goode finds room for just 1 England player in his Lions XV while his old @TheRugbyPod mucker Jim Hamilton voices jolting opinions regarding Owen Farrell and Alun Wyn Jones #LionsRugby
https://t.co/1yAfKLU5SI— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) March 30, 2021
Comments on RugbyPass
The events at this year’s six nations should undermine many of the arguments made against promotion and relegation between the six nations and the REC. If Italy had been allowed to yo-yo between divisions it conceivably could have really hurt their development, but if Italy, Wales, and Scotland are all at risk of relegation, with none of them being relegated more often than once every 3 or 4 years, you’d have to back all of them to muddle on through it, especially when you factor in the likelihood they’ll still be guaranteed world league matches against tier 1 opponents. Another way of looking at italys resurgence would be to say that the development model of adding an extra team to the six nations has worked, and now must be done again. Georgia could join to make it a 7 team round robin, and if and when Georgia demonstrate an ability to consistently win games, Portugal can also be added to make it an 8 team 2 conference competition. Frankly at this point I think it falls to world rugby to demand that the 6N act in the interests of the game. If the 6N won’t commit to expansion then the 6N teams should be handicapped in world cup draws (i.e. world cup seedings would not be based on their ranking points, but on their ranking points minus a 5 point penalty).
4 Go to commentsSteve Borthwick deserves credit for releasing the shackles on his England side and letting them play in a manner that somewhat resembles the top sides in the Gallagher Premiership. Will they revert to type in New Zealand in July.?
27 Go to commentsJames Lowe wouldn't get in any other 6N team. He's a great example of Farrell’s brilliance, and the Irish system. He is slow. His footwork is poor. But he fits perfectly in that Irish system, and has a superb impact. But put him in another team, and he'll look bang average.
5 Go to commentsCrusaders reached their heights through recruitment of North Island players, often leaving those NI teams bereft of key players. Example: Scott Barrett and Sam Whitelock robbed the Canes of their lineout and AB locks. For years the Canes have struggled at lock. This rabid recruitment was iniated by rule changes by a Crusader dominated NZR Head Office. Now this aggressive recruitment has back-fired, going after young inside back Hamilton Boys stars. They now have 4 Chiefs region 10s and not one with the requisite experience at Super level. Problems of their own making!
2 Go to commentsOver rated for a long time…exposed at scrum time too.
3 Go to comments“Firing me” should have been Gatland’s answer.
2 Go to commentsFinn Russell logic: “World” = 4 countries. Ireland may be at or near the top. FR’s bigger concern should be he and his fellow Scots (incl. the Bloemfontein ones) sliding back down to below top 10
42 Go to commentsMind games have begun. Ireland learned their lesson after saying they could beat England with 13 players or whatever. Still, if they win at Loftus, that would be impressive - final frontier etc.
58 Go to comments$950k for a Prop that isn’t fit enough to play 10 mins of rugby? Surely there is someone better to replace Big Mike with
3 Go to commentsFour Kiwis in that backline. A solid statement on the lack of invention, risk-taking and joy in the NH game; game of attrition and head- banging tedium. Longterm medical problems aplenty in the future!
5 Go to commentsGood article, I learnt quite a lot. A big sliding door moment was in the mid 00s when they rejected Steve Anderson's long term transformation and he wrote Ireland's strategy instead.
2 Go to commentsHi Dr Nick! I'm worried that I've started to enjoy watching England and have actually wanted them to win their last two games. What would you prescribe? On a more serious note, I've noticed that the standard of play in March is often better than early February. Do you think this is because of the weather or because the players have been together for longer?
27 Go to commentsMy question in all this brett is who is going to wear the consequences of these actions? Surely just getting the sack isn’t sufficient? A teenager working the till at woolies would probably get taken to court if they took $20 out of the till. You mean to tell me that someone can spend $2.6 million and get away with it? Where was it spent? What companies/people were the beneficiaries etc? How is it just being talked about as an ‘oopsie’ and we all just move on and not a matter of the court for gross negligence, fraud, take your pick…
20 Go to commentslove Manu too but England have relied on him coming back from injury for far too long and not sorted the position with someone else long term . It will be a blessing he has gone . Huge shame he was so injury prone . God speed Manu .
3 Go to commentsI agree with Ben Smith about Brett Cameron. The No. 6 position has to be a monster and a genuine lineout option, like Ollivon, Lawes (now Chessum), Du Toit, etc. The only player who fits that bill right now is Scott Barrett. A fit and fizzing Tuipolotu together with one of the young towers, Sam Darry or Josh Lord, would give Razor the freedom to play Barret at 6.
16 Go to commentsOutstanding article, Graham. Agree with all of it. And enjoy the style of writing too (particularly Grand Slap!).
3 Go to commentsI wouldn't pay a cent for that loafer. He just stands around, waiting for play to come his way. He won't make the Wallabies.
3 Go to commentsGood bit of te reo maori Nic. Or is that Niko or Nikora? On the theme of trees the Oaks v Totara. Game plan would be key. I have one but it would cost you.
27 Go to comments> Shaun Edwards’ You should not have to score 30 points to win a game, as exciting as it is. This statement was surprising to me. It is nonsensical .I guess it is a defence coach speaking. But head coach, defence and attacking coaches all work together. They are inseparable. You score more than the opposition to win. It only needs to be one score. You score whatever the game demands, whatever the opposition demand. You defend whatever it takes. The attack coach needs to be able to clock up 30pts if need be.
27 Go to commentsWho’d have thought, not having Farrell & Youngs kicking the ball at every possible opportunity and playing flat and allowing your centres to run and pass would pay off? No one could possibly have seen this coming. FML. It took a LONG time coming but at least that time has finally come. England need to find a backup to Lawrence. Freeman is the best candidate for me, I see no reason why he can't play 12. He's big, strong, fast and has great hands.
27 Go to comments