Dalton Papalii's departure does hurt the All Blacks and this is why

On the surface, it seems mutually beneficial that Blues captain Dalton Papalii has decided to end his New Zealand career and head offshore, signing a deal in the Top 14 with Castres.

Papalii was no longer earning All Black selection, he’s earned his market value through nearly a decade of service to New Zealand, and now is the time to cash in with a big contract.

Yet losing Papalii is another loose forward now ineligible for the All Blacks due to NZR’s eligibility rules. The Blues openside joins Super Rugby championship-winning teammates Akira Ioane and Hoskins Sotutu, who will move to Newcastle Red Bulls, in a similar situation.

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Papalii is just 27 years old, Sotutu is 28, and Akira Ioane is now 30. There is an argument to be made that NZR’s eligibility rules are harmful when it comes to specific position groups, the loose forwards being one of them.

In the modern game, battle-hardened back rowers tend to mature and peak through the early 30s.

The 2015 All Blacks had a back row of Jerome Kaino, then 32, Richie McCaw, 34, and Kieran Read, 30. It was complete as a unit, with the cumulative experience a massive asset. A similar combination has not really been found since, while selection at the blindside position in particular has been troublesome.

New Zealand has been losing a lot of depth in the loose forwards just as players like Papalii reach their highest value in their late 20s. Regardless of whether they are currently in the All Blacks set-up or not, the churn-and-burn approach in this position group is not optimal. It reduces depth, which is key for winning Rugby World Cups.

The closest solution to Kaino at blindside has been Shannon Frizell, who from 2022-23 became the ‘missing piece’ and transformed the All Blacks with the Sam Cane and Ardie Savea loose forward combination. His win rate when starting with the All Blacks was exceptionally high, above the actual rate at the time.

Just as Frizell became the solution, he departed for Japan on a three-year deal with Toshiba Brave Lupus Tokyo. Frizell is currently 32, in the prime of his career.

The All Blacks in 2025 went back to square one at No.6 with the Chiefs’ Simon Parker, a 25-year-old. Parker is a phenomenal prospect who will continue to grow and get better, but he’s not at the peak of his powers. When he comes off his new contract at 28, will he also be lost just as he is hitting his straps?

To compare with the Springboks, who have access to every player globally that is South African, this is a big factor that has swung the balance of power back to the Springboks.

One example is Jasper Wiese, the hothead No.8 who debuted during the British & Irish Lions tour five years ago and has been in and out of favour since. He is a walking liability, or was a walking liability, when it came to discipline despite his talent.

But in 2025, at 30-years-old he found his best form and added much to the Bok pack as a powerful ball-carrying weapon. Had he been ineligible and forgotten about, left to play out his years in Japan, the Springboks would have been worse off last year. He proved to be their most in-form forward.

He’s the same age as Akira Ioane, who possesses a special frame and size that is built for international rugby. Ioane is lost to the All Blacks in a position that has been troublesome, just like Frizell.

There is chatter in some corners that the Highlanders’ Sean Withy is pushing for All Black honours. Another 25-year-old, who would, in all likelihood, be eaten alive by the physicality of the more mature Springbok pack.

Blooding Withy would be throwing him into the deep end. It might pay off down the line once he’s accustomed to the international level, but that’s the point. The All Blacks are continually going back to square one in the loose forwards after losing depth from players who offer the most value.

Hoskins Sotutu’s second-to-last All Black Test start in 2022 against the Wallabies in Melbourne wasn’t his best. But you know, he was only 24 years old.

In 2024, he was Super Rugby’s most dominant player, the undisputed ‘MVP’ and propelled the Blues to their first championship in over 20 years. That season by Sotutu was special and indicated he had gone to another level.

He was ‘surplus to requirements’ for Robertson’s All Blacks, but who knows what Sotutu could still offer. Like Wiese, to write him off at 27 is ridiculous. His best rugby is coming over the next five years, should he be in the right environment.

No one can begrudge the players for leaving if financial forces are at play. They need to maximise their earnings from their short time playing, but this is no doubt harming the All Blacks more than ever before.

When international careers were largely over in the late 20s, the eligibility rules worked. Now, players are peaking into their early 30s, and New Zealand is behind the eight ball. The players are reaching the point of a deserved payday, but the New Zealand market can’t provide it for all.

The downstream impact is felt at Super Rugby level. The Blues would well and truly be in the mix for another Super Rugby title if they had kept all three of the back rowers around for their best years. Losing just one, Akira Ioane, derailed their back-to-back aspirations.

With the All Blacks, the evidence is clear on how much experience is needed at Test level in the 23-man game.

Over Scott Robertson’s tenure, the All Blacks looked their best when they had a strong, experienced bench full of veterans to close out games. In 2024, on the end-of-year tour, they had the likes of Ofa Tu’ungafasi, Patrick Tuipulotu, Asafo Aumua, Samipeni Finua, Cam Roigard, Damian McKenzie and Anton Lienert-Brown on the bench. They beat England, handled Ireland and were one point off beating a full-strength France.

When Razor’s All Blacks collapsed with second-half meltdowns, the bench was very green with young, inexperienced players. In the seven losses under Robertson, the All Blacks led at half-time in six of them. In the other loss, the game was drawn at 40 minutes. In one, they even had a double-digit lead heading into the final quarter.

The bench simply wasn’t up to standard and did not have the necessary experience or ability to close out games. Having a full slate of capped players available would definitely change the playing field.

Could the likes of Dalton Papalii, Akira Ioane, Hoskins Sotutu, and Shannon Frizell help the All Blacks win in 2027? The answer is yes.

An age-based threshold to the eligibility rules could solve this problem. It is clear that NZR can’t afford to keep the capped All Blacks who end up on the periphery, but who could add valuable depth. They are leaving anyway, but taking something valuable with them; their prime.

An age-based threshold where overseas-based players can be picked for the All Blacks over the age of 30 prevents many from leaving too early, and opens the door for many to continue when it suits NZR.

By that age, the seasoned pros benefit from the overseas competition, they understand their own conditioning needs and responsibilities, and can bring into the All Blacks valuable overseas experience.

Looking back at the career of Isaia Toeava is interesting. A prodigious talent whose international career was short-lived from 2005 to 2011. He left New Zealand at age 25.

Through the 2010s, there wasn’t a need for Toeava. The All Blacks went pretty well without him. But he had an incredible career after that, playing until 2022, a full 11 years after his last All Black Test. He became one of European rugby’s best players at Clermont.

The 2020s are very different from the 2010s. There is a very clear need for players like Toeava in certain positions, and to ignore a potential solution for them means the All Blacks won’t be exploring every avenue for getting back to the top.