Bristol's season teeters on the edge as Bears struggle to keep up with teams fresh with World Cup talent
Head back to the beginning of December and Bristol fans would have been feeling quietly confident with how their team were coasting along.
The Bears, who only gained promotion back into the top flight of English rugby a year earlier, had sailed through November with four wins from four matches and were sitting atop the Premiership ladder.
Their sole blip in the Premiership season to date was a five-point loss away from home to the Harlequins, but solid victories against Bath, Sale and Exeter still gave Bristolians plenty to cluck about.
It was a similar story in the Challenge Cup, with the Bears cruising to bonus point victories over Zebre and Brive, who had no answer for the complete rugby that Bristol were playing.
The likes of Charles Piutau, Steven Luatua and Nathan Hughes were causing havoc, no matter what the opposition threw at the Bears.
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Come December, however, and the wheels started getting a little squeaky.
The first sign of trouble was when the Bears fell to an unexpected 27-all draw against a considerably less fancied London Irish side. Less than two months earlier, Bristol has walloped the Exiles 44-27 in the Premiership Cup.
Back-to-back wins over Stade Francais in the Challenge Cup suggested that the London Irish draw may have been just a blip on the radar, but then things really started to fall apart when the Premiership resumed.
First up, a Saracens side looking to avoid relegation crushed the Bears 47-13.
https://www.instagram.com/p/B7E26O1AOn5/
Then the Wasps – with just one win to their name – came to Ashton Gate and secured a 26-21 victory.
Finally, Bristol were trounced 31-18 last weekend by a Leicester side that would’ve been holding last place on the Premiership ladder were it not for the Saracens’ salary cap scandal.
Three weeks; three bad losses – and now the Bears find themselves parked in the middle of the table with two difficult matches coming up against Northampton and Gloucester.
The loss against Leicester will have impact beyond just the past weekend, however, with both Charles Piutau and John Afoa going down injured during the match.
You may recognise the name from a few years ago when this man scored 4 tries for his school in a single game.
@tj_athlete talks to @RugbyPass on why he's signing for Bristol Bears. https://t.co/HhRfASQM08
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) August 9, 2019
The latest news suggests that Afoa will be out of action for the next two weeks while Piutau could make his return in late February.
Whilst the Bears have plenty of depth in the outside backs, Piutau has been a standout for Pat Lam’s side and sparked many a try from the fullback position. Luke Morahan, Mat Protheroe or Ian Madigan, who has been consigned to the Premiership Rugby Shield with Bristol’s A-team, could be called upon to take Piutau’s place – solid players, but none possesses the all-round game of the former All Black, nor the outrageous X-factor.
Bristol’s saving grace is that the Premiership will take a back seat for the next two weeks with European rugby taking over until the end of January.
The Bears, who are 10 points clear of Brive in their Challenge Cup pool, could throw away their next two fixtures and would still almost certainly qualify for the knockout stages of the competition, which gives Lam some time to right the ship.
https://www.instagram.com/p/B66wkvLAyVS/
For the sake of the players’ confidence, however, any more losses on the trot would be disastrous to the Bears’ campaign.
Lam will want his charges to reassert themselves as one of England’s top dogs over the coming weeks, with gimmie matches against Brive and Zebre the perfect opportunity for Bristol to bank some points, flex some muscles and get the engine churning for when Premiership rugby resumes on January 25.
Whatever happens over the next couple of weekends, however, Bristol will need to be at their best when they host Gloucester then travel to Franklin’s Gardens to take on Northampton, who are currently ranked second on the table.
With just five rounds to play in the Premiership, and just a single point separating Bristol in 5th from the Harlequins in 8th, there’s a very real chance of the Bears finding themselves languishing in a similar position to last year when the season draws to a close.
The best @BristolBears team of the last decade?
– @alexshawsport picks his 15 for 10 ???https://t.co/xOeYbadt2P
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) November 30, 2019
A spot in the Champions Cup for next season would have been Lam’s minimum goal for the current year, but a spot in the semi-finals is still very much within Bristol’s reach.
Saracens’ 35-point penalty has opened the door for last year’s mid-table sides to really push for a spot in the playoffs – and Bristol aren’t the only team that can smell the knockout games.
Should the Bears fail to take the season back by the scruff of the neck then pundits will rightly start to ask whether the early season successes were mainly a product of some of the bigger teams having to forge on without their stars from the 2019 World Cup.
Just five of Bristol’s current squad were required for World Cup duties but none of those players were called upon by England, who bowed out in the final on November 2. Instead, Alapati Leuia, Chris Vui, James Lay and Jordan Lay represented Samoa while Siale Piutau captained Tonga.
https://www.instagram.com/p/B5pJ9hIgAwu/
Samoa and Tonga were bundled out of the competition during the pool stages, which meant Bristol kicked off the Premiership season with all hands on deck.
Further, the likes of Charles Piutau, Afoa and Steven Luatua would have all likely been called up for the World Cup if New Zealand didn’t have such a stringent selection policy, which meant Bristol had access to a number of top-quality players from day one.
In fact, Bristol had a very easy run of it when compared with some of their early opponents.
Bath, who were the Bears’ first prey, were without Sam Underhill, Jonathan Joseph, Joe Cokanasiga, Ruaridh McConnochie, Anthony Watson (all England) and Francois Louw (South Africa) – whose nations both progressed to the World Cup final.
England show their hand ahead of the 2020 under-20s Six Nations
https://t.co/OFK3UHUnRG— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) January 3, 2020
Exeter had access to their full complement of players when they fell to Bristol in Round 4, but that match took place just a week after the final, which gave the Chiefs’ stars little time to acclimatise to the Premiership.
In fact, Bristol haven’t managed a win over a fellow English side since the World Cup stars were all fully integrated into their teams – which doesn’t bode well for the rest of the season.
A run of bad form and injuries to key players could see Bristol’s season come to a train crash of an end if they aren’t able to pull themselves together in the coming weeks. The Challenge Cup, with three rounds of knockout matches to navigate, will never be a sure thing for the Bears and the glory of making the sudden death stages of the Premiership for the first time in almost 15 years should be the real goal for Pat Lam’s men.
Of course, success in the Premiership will require the Bristol Bears to put their recent poor performances against English teams aside and reaffirm their capabilities – and they may have to do that without their star player.
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Comments on RugbyPass
Following his dream and putting in the work. Go well young fella!
3 Go to commentsPerhaps filling Twickenham is one of Mitchell’s KPIs. I doubt whether both September matches will be at Twickenham on consecutive weekends. I would take the BF one to a large provincial stadium so as not to give them the advantage and experience of playing at Twickenham before a large crowd prior to the RWC.
1 Go to commentsvery unfortunate for Kitshoff, but big opportunity potentially for Nché to prove he is genuinely the best loosehead in the world, rather than just a specialist finisher. Presuming that if Kitshoff is out, it will also give Steenekamp a chance to come into the 23? Or are others likely to be ahead of him?
1 Go to commentsA long held question in popular culture asks if art imitates life or does the latter influence the former? Over this 6 nations I can ask the same question of the media influencing the thoughts of its audience or vice versa. Nobody wants to see cricket scores in rugby, as a spectacle it is not sustainable. With so many articles about England’s procession and lack of competition it feeds the epicaricacy of many looking for an opportunity to pounce. England are not the first team to dominate nor does it happen only in rugby, think Federer, Nadal, Red Bull or Mercedes, Manchester Utd, Australia in tests and World Cups. Instead of celebrating the achievements why find reasons to falsify it pointing towards larger playing pool, professional for a longer period or mitigate with the lack of growth in other nations. Can we not enjoy it while it is here and know that it won’t last for ever, others coveting what England have will soon take the crown, ask the aforementioned?
6 Go to commentsShame he won’t turn out for the Netherlands now they’re improving. U20s are Euro champs and in the U20 Trophy this year. The senior sides gets better every year too.
3 Go to commentsWill rugbypass tv be showing these games?
1 Go to commentsWell where do you start, the fact that England have a professional domestic league and Ireland’s is fully amatuer, that they have fully seperated professional squads at Fifteens and Sevens (7’s thinly disguised as GB), and Ireland have fully pro Sevens squad who loan some players back to the Semi-Professional Fifteens squad (moved from amateur for only a year or so) for a few games at 6N & RWC’s. The Women’s games is a shambles, and is at risk of killing itself by pushing for professionalism when the market isn’t really there to support it outside one or two countnries..
6 Go to commentsWayne Smith's input didn't have as much impact on the last final as Davison's red card for Thompson. England were 14 points up and flying when that happened.
6 Go to commentsBilly's been playing consistently well for 2 - 3 seasons now and deserves a look in at the top level. Ioane and ALB are still first choice but there needs to be injury cover and succession. His partnership with Jordie gives him first dibs you'd think. Go the Hurricanes.
3 Go to commentsIt’s not up to Wales to support Georgian Rugby. That’s up to International Rugby and Georgia. I sympathise with Georgia’s decent attempt to create this fixture. But for Wales the proposed match up is just a potential stick to beat them with and a potential big psychological blow that young Welsh team doesn’t need. (I’m Irish BTW.)
2 Go to commentsCale certainly looks great in space, but as you say, he has struggled in contact. At 23 years old, turning 24 this year, he should be close to full physical maturity and yet there exists a considerable gap in the power and physicality required for international rugby. Weight doesn’t automatically equate to power and physicality either. Can he go from a player who’s being physically dominated in Super rugby to physically dominating in international rugby in 1 or 2 years? That’s a big ask but he may end up being a late bloomer.
28 Go to commentsIf rugby wants to remain interesting in the AI era then it will need to work on changing the rules. AI will reduce the tactical advantage of smart game plans, will neutralize primary attacking weapons, and will move rugby from a being a game of inches to a game of millimetres. It will be about sheer athleticism and technique,about avoiding mistakes, and about referees. Many fans will find that boring. The answer is to add creative degrees of freedom to the game. The 50-22 is an example. But we can have fun inventing others, like the right to add more players for X minutes per game, or the equivalent of the 2-point conversion in American football, the ability to call a 12-player scrum, etc. Not saying these are great ideas, but making the point that the more of these alternatives you allow, the less AI will be able to lock down high-probability strategies. This is not because AI does not have the compute power, but because it has more choices and has less data, or less-specific data. That will take time and debate, but big, positive and immediate impact could be in the area of ref/TMO assistance. The technology is easily good enough today to detect forward passes, not-straight lineouts, offside at breakdown/scrum/lineout, obstruction, early/late tackles, and a lot of other things. WR should be ultra aggressive in doing this, as it will really help in an area in which the game is really struggling. In the long run there needs to be substantial creativity applied to the rules. Without that AI (along with all of the pro innovations) will turn rugby into a bash fest.
24 Go to commentsSouth Africa rarely play Ireland and France on these tours. Mostly, England, Scotland and Wales. I wonder why
2 Go to commentsIt was a let’s-see-what-you're-made-of type of a game. The Bulls do look good when the opposition allows them to, but Munster shut them down, and they could not find a way through. Jake should be very worried about their chances in the competition.
2 Go to commentsHats off to Fabian for a very impressive journey to date. Is it as ‘uniquely unlikely’ as Rugby Pass suggests, given Anton Segner’s journey at the Blues?
3 Go to commentsSad that this was not confirmed. When administrators talk about expanding the game they evidently don’t include pathways to the top tier of rugby for teams outside of the old boys club. Rugby deserves better, and certainly Georgia does.
2 Go to commentsLions might take him on if they move on Van Rooyen but I doubt he will want to go back, might consider it a step backwards for himself. Sharks would take him on but if Plumtree goes on to win the challenge cup they will keep him on. Also sharks showing some promising signs recently. Stormers and Bulls are stable and Springboks are already filled up. Quality coach though, interesting to see where he ends up
1 Go to commentsAnd the person responsible for creating a culture of accountability is?
3 Go to commentsMore useless words from Ben Smith -Please get another team to write about. SA really dont need your input, it suck anyway.
264 Go to commentsThis disgraceful episode must result in management and coach team sackings. A new manager with worse results than previous and the coaching staff need to coached. Awful massacre led by donkeys.
1 Go to comments