The Blues Pero-future is here, and it's better than you think
Inside another lost Blues season lies the promising future of the franchise.
After years and years of searching for a quality first five-eighth, they just may have found one. A deeper look behind the surface reveals that 21-year-old Stephen Perofeta isn’t just a regular 10, he’s an attacking force in the making.
Is he still raw? Yes. Does he make mistakes? Yes. He’s not the finished product but neither was any rookie 10 in their first season of Super Rugby. He’s featured in 13 games this season, starting at first five-eighth 10 times.
His first appearance of the season came in the third match as Bryn Gatland’s replacement against the Lions in South Africa. He first took the field with the Blues down 28-10, and finished his twenty-minute cameo with the Blues winning their first game 38-35. He led a similar second-half fightback against the Stormers the next week which did enough to convince the Blues coaches to hand him the starting role. Outside of one start at fullback, he has played at first-five since.
Control and maturity will come with experience – his option taking has been a little bit wanting at times and his out-of-hand kicking isn’t reliable enough yet. What’s not debatable is his raw attacking ability – when compared to other rivals in his position, the young playmaker outranks nearly all of them.
To measure the efficiency or effectiveness of one’s playmaking or vision, we looked at run/pass totals and the line break/line break assist totals of each first five-eighth to determine who has the best conversion rate. Who is more effective at breaking line, rather than who breaks the line the most.
Those with the lowest ratios show the best return and present the biggest threat. Perofeta’s line break ratio of 5.92 is the best in the competition for a 10, ahead of Damian McKenzie (8.75), Beauden Barrett (9.63), Richie Mo’unga (12.33) and Lima Sopoaga (15.00). He will produce a line break roughly once every six runs, the most productive running game of any first five-eighth.
When it came to ball-playing efficiency, Perofeta ranked second in the competition with a line break assist ratio of 12.00. Only Yu Tamura of the Sunwolves had a better return (11.80), but he only played six games. Close behind Perofeta were the Crusaders pair Mitch Hunt (12.78) and Richie Mo’unga (12.92). The rest of New Zealand’s first fives were also in the top 10 – Lima Sopoaga (14.50), Damian McKenzie (14.55) and Beauden Barrett (15.79) but Perofeta was more effective than all of them.
Whilst the passing totals used to calculate the ratios don’t differentiate between shifting ball early or taking on the line, it does give some insight into ball-in-hand creativity. It also indicates that the Blues may be better served designing plays around Perofeta taking on the line, given that he shows exceptional ability in creating opportunities.
To understand just how good these numbers are, a comparison with fellow rookie first fives paints a better picture. South African stepping whiz Damian Willemse shows a decent LB ratio of 13.83 but a poor LBA ratio of 36.20, illustrating a lack of playmaking in his passing game. The Queensland Reds future flyhalf Hamish Stewart had an LB ratio of 17.0 and an LBA ratio of 29.0, which ranked in the bottom five in both categories.
The Blues have a natural attacking talent that doesn’t just blow his age-peers out of the water, but competes and betters the very best in playmaking efficiency.
You might be thinking that this attacking production is the result of risky play, and the flip side is a kid who is plagued by errors. Whilst he may make the wrong decision (for example, kicking when ball-in-hand looks promising), his actual turnover rate is surprisingly low at 3.13%. That’s better than Richie Mo’unga (3.58%), Beauden Barrett (4.07%), Damian McKenzie (4.33%) and Lima Sopoaga (5.24%).
Perofeta’s weakness is his kicking game, and the Blues have shied away from giving him too much responsibility in this area. He kicks half as much as Barrett or McKenzie, with a higher kick error rate than the two.
This will be an important development area for him, as without it he will never be able to control a game and close out wins with territorial kicking. What Barrett lacks in passing efficiency, he makes up for in predatory anticipation instincts and world-class out-of-hand kicking. He can pull a rabbit out the hat from anywhere, and dictate terms from the back with the boot.
At just 21-years-old Perofeta is the best prospect the Blues have had since Carlos Spencer, and after one season is already proving he will be a majestic playmaker like the King.
The Pero-future is here, and it looks good.
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Comments on RugbyPass
I like this, but ultimately rugby already has enough trophies. Trying to make more games “consequential" might prove to be a fools errand, although this is a less bad idea than some others. Minor quibble with the title of the article; it isn’t very meaningful to say the boks are the unofficial world champions when it would be functionally impossible for the Raeburn trophy not to be held by the world champions. There’s a period of a few months every 4 years when there is no “unofficial” world champion, and the Raeburn trophy is held by the actual world champions.
8 Go to commentsIts a great idea but one that I dont think will have a lot of traction. It will depend on the prestige that they each hold but if you can do that it would be great. When Japan beat the Boks (my team) I was absolutely devestated but I wont deny the great game they played that day. We were outclassed and it was one of the best games of rugby I have seen. Using an idea like this you might just give the the underdog teams more of an opportunity to beat the big teams and I can absolutely see it being a brilliant display of rugby. They beat us because they planned for that game. It was a great moment for Japan. This way we can remove the 4 year wait and give teams something to aim for outside of World Cup years.
8 Go to commentsHi, Dave here. Happy to answer questions 🥰
8 Go to commentsDon’t think that headline is accurate. It’s great to see Aus doing better but I’m not sure they’ve shown much threat to the top of the table. They shouldn’t be inflating wins against the lousy Highlanders and Crusaders either.
3 Go to commentsSuch a shame Roigard and Aumua picked up long term injuries, probably the two form players in the comp. Also, pretty sure Clarke Dermody isn’t their coach. Got it half right though.
3 Go to commentsOh the Aussie media, they never learn. At least Andrew Kellaway is like “Woah, yeah it’s great, but settle down there guys” having endured years of the Aussie media, fans, and often their players getting ahead of themselves only to fall flat on their faces. Have the “We'll win the Bledisloe for sure this year!” headlines started yet? It’s simple to see what’s going on. The Aussie teams are settled, they didn't lose any of their major players overseas. The Crusaders and Chiefs lost key experienced All Blacks, and Razor in the Crusaders case, and clearly neither are anywhere near as strong as last year (The Canes and Blues would probably be 3rd & 4th if they were). The Highlanders are annually average, even more so post-Aaron Smith and a big squad clean out. The two teams at the top? The two nz sides with largely the same settled roster as last year, except Ardie Savea for the Canes. They’ve both got far better coaches now too. If the Aussies are going to win the title, this is the year the kiwi sides will be weakest, so they better take their chance.
3 Go to commentsThe World Cup has to be the gold standard, line in the sand. 113 teams compete for what is the opportunity to make the pool stages, and then the knockout games for the trophy. The concept is sound. This must have been the rationale when the World Cup was created, surely? But I’m all for Looking forward and finding new ways for the SH to dominate the NH into the future. The autumn series needs a change up. Let’s start by having the NH teams come south every odd year for the Autumn/Spring series games?
8 Go to commentsWhat’ll happen when the AI models of the future go back in time and try to destroy the AI models of the past standing in their way of certain victory?
41 Go to commentsThanks, Nick. We (Seanny Maloney, Brett and I) just discussed Charlie as a potential Wallaby No 8, and wondered if he has truly realised how big he is in contact (and whether he can add 5 kg w/o slowing down). Your scouting report confirms our suspicions he has the materiel. No one knows if he has the mentality (as Johann van Graan said this week about CJ, Duane and Alfie B) to carry 10-15 times a game.
57 Go to commentsHe would be a great player for the Stormers, Dobbo should approach the guy.
3 Go to commentsGood article. A few years back when he was playing for the Cheetahs, he was a quiet standout for exactly the seasons stated here. I occasionally get to see his games in the UK, and he has become a more complete player and in many ways like an Irish player. His work ethic is so suitable to the Leinster game. I wonder if Rassie would have him listed somewhere.
3 Go to commentsResults probably skewed by the fact that a few clubs have foreign fly halves in their 30s, but most teams have young English scrum halves. Results also likely to be skewed by the fact that many teams rely on centres and fullbacks to provide depth at 10, whereas they will need to stock a large number of specialist backup 9s.
1 Go to commentsI really get the sense that when all is said and done, the path of least resistance will end up being a merger of Wasps & Worcester that essentially kills the Worcester Warriors brand and sees Wasps permanently playing at Sixways. I’m not saying that’s what should happen or what I want to happen. I just think it’s the easiest rout to take and therefore, will be what happens. Wasps will definitely return to play first, and I suppose it all depends on if they can find support at Sixways. If people turn up and support Wasps in that community, at that ground, I bet they drop the Sevenoaks plan and just remain at Sixways. Under the radar but not totally unrelated, it looks as though London Irish are going to be brought back from the dead by a German consortium and look set to return, likely to the remade Championship. It’s set to have 12 clubs next season with 14 in 2025/26, what do you want to bet those extra 2 are Wasps and London Irish?
3 Go to commentsThe shoulder is a “joint” with multiple bones. You don’t “fracture” a shoulder, you fracture any one or more of the bones that make up a shoulder.
2 Go to commentsOh dear, bones too suspect to continue?
2 Go to commentsBold headline considering the Canes and Blues are 1 and 2 and the Brumbies were soundly beaten by the Chiefs and Blues. Biggest surprise is Rebels 4 Crusaders 12 - no one saw that coming. If Aus are improving that’s great 👍
3 Go to commentsAnna, You are right, we need to have patience whilst the others catch up to England and France. Also it is the PWR that has been the game changer for England. the RFU put money into that initially at the expense of the Red Roses. I was sceptical at first but it has paid off in spades.
1 Go to commentsI think Matt Proctor became a 1 test AB in the same fixture. Cameron is quality and has been great this season, can’t believe’s he only 27. Realistically how would he not be selected for ABs squad this year. Only Dmac is ahead of him as a specialist 10. With Jordan out, it will come down to where and when Beauden Barrett slots back in, and where they want to play Ruben Love. Cameron seems an absolute lock in for the wider squad though. Added benefit of TJ-Cameron-Jordie combination at 9, 10, 11 too.
1 Go to commentsFarcical, to what end would someone want to pay to keep this thing going.
1 Go to commentsHavili, our best 12 by a mile, will be in the squad, if he stays fit. JB is the most overrated AB in the last 50 years.
61 Go to comments