Are Leinster and Saracens still kings of Europe? A lot has changed since the pool stage
Coming into the 2018/19 season, Leinster were widely regarded to be strong favourites to retain their Heineken Champions Cup title, such was the emphatic nature of how they had played the previous season.
If a real threat were going to come to their position at the summit of European rugby, it was largely expected to come from Saracens, who had held that same position for the two seasons prior to Leinster’s rise.
Both sides reinforced those claims during the pool stage, with Saracens winning all six of their ties and locking up the top overall seeding going into the quarter-finals, and although Leinster slipped up away in Toulouse, they were still imperious enough in their other five matches to post a tally of 25 points and secure the third overall seed. The two sides sandwiched Racing 92 in the seedings, with the Parisian outfit having looked equally ruthless in the pool stage.
That was just over two months ago, however, and a fair amount has changed since then.
Leinster were pushed hard immediately before the Guinness Six Nations by the Scarlets, as well as falling to defeat last weekend away to Edinburgh. They were relatively comfortable during the international window, however, seeing off the challenges of Zebre, Southern Kings and Cheetahs. Four wins from five since the end of the pool stage is not a bad return, albeit with the Dubliners looking a little short of their best since the beginning of 2019.
As for Saracens, their record of three wins from five Gallagher Premiership matches is not the most enthusing of returns, with losses away at Gloucester and Bath blighting them during the Six Nations. There was a hard-fought win at the Olympic Stadium against Harlequins in the mix there, as well as more comfortable home victories over Leicester Tigers and Northampton Saints.
Admittedly, both Leinster and Saracens were shorn of internationals during the Six Nations, with the two sides contributing the cores of the Ireland and England teams respectively, but the dips in form have been noticeable and because of the Six Nations, they have not had too much continuity of selection heading into the quarter-finals this weekend.
Racing have also faced their fair share of bumps in the road following the pool stage, as they proceeded to lose three straight in the Top 14, facing defeat at the hands of Lyon, Toulouse and Castres. Their form has picked up since but they, like Leinster and Saracens, do not look as impervious as they did earlier in the season.
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Working in the favour of these three teams is the fact they have all booked home quarter-finals. Leinster host Ulster in a much-anticipated local derby, Saracens welcome Glasgow Warriors to Allianz Park in a match that is likely to feature plenty of niggle, whilst Racing take on high-flying Toulouse in Paris.
Further good news for Leinster and Saracens comes in the form of both sides being undefeated so far this season at home in the Champions Cup and Premiership or Guinness PRO14 competitions. Whilst they have both had their mishaps on the road, their home form has been flawless. It’s not quite as encouraging a story for Racing, who actually lost to Toulouse in the Top 14 on home soil – or home turf – just last month.
Against Edinburgh last week, Leinster’s Irish contingent were all rested, whilst the Scottish side went to the likes of Darcy Graham, WP Nel, Ben Toolis and Hamish Watson. Leinster’s players will be fresh this week against Ulster, but there’s also the risk they will struggle for cohesion and chemistry in such an important game. Ulster were without their Irish contingent in their win over the Southern Kings on Friday, too, but by comparison, it is a smaller number of players to reintegrate.
For Saracens, they opted to give Owen Farrell, George Kruis and Maro Itoje the week off against Harlequins on Saturday, with the former two recuperating from the Six Nations and the latter not rushed back after the injury he suffered in February. They did, however, immediately bring Jamie George and Billy Vunipola back into the starting XV.
Both Leinster vs Ulster and Saracens vs Glasgow Warriors have their own fascinating sub-plots to consider, too.
There was a rush and a frenzy to criticise Ireland during and after the Six Nations, with some outlets going as far as to write off Ireland’s chances at the upcoming Rugby World Cup, and this game will be a measure of whether or not the players have been affected by that or if there is any truth to it. Leinster will welcome back a much larger selection of players from that group who had a flat, to be kind, Six Nations, whereas Ulster will lean more heavily upon players from outside of the group that lost to England and Wales.
As for Saracens taking on Glasgow, if there are any flashbacks to the game that took place about 15 miles south of Allianz Park at the culmination of the Six Nations, Saracens could be in trouble against the Scottish club. That second half in the Calcutta Cup will be one of the major low points of the Saracens’ England players’ international careers, especially with success having come more often than not since the 2015 RWC.
That all said, both Leinster and Saracens have quality squads, plenty of leaders on and off the field and are boasting home advantage. The safe money is on both of them advancing to the semi-finals this weekend, although the gap between them and the rest of the field has definitely seemed to diminish since the turn of the year.
Ulster have not lost since their last trip to Dublin, Glasgow, similarly, haven’t lost since they last played Saracens earlier in the Champions Cup, whilst Toulouse are in rapid ascension in terms of European rugby and more than capable of upsetting the odds against Racing on Sunday.
We’ve focused on those three quarter-finals because of the form of Leinster, Saracens and Racing back in the pool stage, but the match between Edinburgh and Munster shouldn’t be overlooked, either.
Edinburgh boast home advantage, whilst Munster have a pedigree in this tournament which in match previews, head-to-heads and debate sounds simply like a hollow cliché, and yet, unerringly, always seems to be emphatically reinforced in big European games. Thankfully for Edinburgh, they’ve taken away the Thomond Park crowd and advantage, but no one is writing Munster off in this contest, even as the away team.
Could one of those two sides go all the way and challenge the early front-runners that formed a European “big three” for the title this season?
It wouldn’t be surprising, that’s for sure, but it still feels as if there is a bit of a gap there. It may feel like it’s diminishing, but it still exists.
Solid wins this weekend for Leinster and Saracens will reaffirm their status at the top of the European pile, as it would for Racing, although Toulouse will head to Paris La Défense Arena full of the confidence that their international counterparts France rarely, if ever, exhibited during the Six Nations. That game has the customary “there’s always one away team who upsets the apple cart” feel to it.
Should they win, Saracens will book home advantage for the semi-finals as the number one seed, meaning that they would host either Edinburgh or Munster at the Ricoh Arena in Coventry, whilst Leinster will be hoping for a Toulouse win, in which case they’d take on les rouges et noirs at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin, rather than having to travel to Paris to take on Racing.
The permutations could fall in a number of different ways, but if you were one of the people hoping early in the tournament for a blockbuster match-up between Leinster and Saracens in the final at St James’ Park in May, you may very well still get your wish.
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Comments on RugbyPass
Ireland Reign Supreme? Really? Of the 6 nations two (Wales and Italy) were not contenders for the title. No credit to Ireland for beating them. A further nation (France) was off the boil. So it was really more like a 3N tournament. Of the two remaining Irish opponents, one (England) is in rebuild but still managed to beat Ireland. The other (Scotland) was an Irish win, but hardly a beating. It was pretty close, despite being an Irish home game. Ireland were excellent early last year, but this year they struggled to win a 6N tournament that should have been unusually easy for them to win. They were not dominant against the better teams, and they certainly don’t Reign Supreme. Let’s hope they reinvigorate their attack before the SA trip.
3 Go to commentsThanks Nick, and totally correct. Definately too many teams which is unfortunately an effect of the 21st century hubris that began after our 2nd World Cup win. Honestly we weren't like that before then. If NZ beat us in a Rugby League or cricket series (which has occasionally happened) they don't all of a sudden think they are our equal or even better than us. Unfortunately for Australia, we got carried away with ourselves and wanted to jump from 4th biggest football code to biggest…in 5 minutes. More teams, more matches against the All Blacks (so we could beat them even more). Bring it on. It’s been all down hill since then. Assuming Melbourne are gone, there are very good reasons to keep the remaining 4 in SR, or so it would seem. The Force?…wronged previously, and have $s. Surely not. The Brumbies?….easily the best performed. Surely not. The Waratahs?….most players (50%) and most followers. Surely not. The Reds?….easily the best current team, and nearly as many players and followers as the Waratahs. Surely not. I’d argue that based on how strong the combined Reds n Rebs would be and how strong a combined team of all of the other Oz SR teams would be, we have players for 2 teams…..which would be good. Good enough for a propper SR competition…or maybe good enough for Japan….if they’ll have us. Existing SR teams?….keep them and have them play a second tier…or maybe NZ's NRC….if they'll have us. This is biting the bullet. We have the cattle
1 Go to commentsbest news and very helpful
4 Go to commentsA year ago Ireland and France looked impressive. In this 6N neither looked special. Both have lost good players, but more importantly teams have figured out how to shut them down. In particular the Irish loss to a rebuilding England and the home game struggle against a brave Scotland did nothing to prove that the Irish RWC result was undeserved. If the Scots can shut down the Irish attack, then SA can do so with interest. Rassie will have watched that game with confidence. Farrell is smart, and the Irish team is talented, so we should expect a more creative game plan in SA. But if all they bring is what they showed against Scotland then Ireland is going to struggle against the Boks. It was a fun 6N tournament, but the win for Ireland was as much about weak competition as about Irish brilliance. It was mostly due to France being off the boil, Wales and Italy not being contenders, and Scotland being a home game. England are looking much better, but “much better” should not be enough to topple a team that is supposed by some to be The Best in the World. I hope that Ireland can bump it up a notch or two for the Bok tour. A year ago they were fantastic to watch. It would be great to see that again.
24 Go to commentsLooking forward to the Wallabies being competitive again. No doubt that Joe can get them back on track.
1 Go to commentsThanks, Nick, not only for this fine article, but for all the others during 6N 2024. I really enjoyed this 2024 tournament, and felt it was one of the best for many years. That final match in Lyons was really good. England were certainly unlucky when that speculative hack by Ramos lead to a French try. It could just so easily have landed in English hand.s, and they score at the other end. I did think though that the French played some great rugby, and some of their driving play in the forwards was just fearsome. I watched Meafou with interest, and he has a good start to his career. It is interesting to compare him with Will Skelton. Lot of similarities, though so far Meafou has not shown any offloading threat. All credit to Borthwick for being prepared to change, and what great result, even if that last game was lost at the death. I feel they are a real chance to cause the AB’s problems this winter/summer. Finally a comment on Ireland. I thought their last game was their worst, and they did not look like the world’s No 2 side at all. What really worries me is that the loss to England was, in my view, down to poor decision making by the coaching group, and ofc Andy Farrell wears that. It was a big mistake to move JGP away from scrum half. Murray should have been the one to go to the wing. And the “finishers” should have been on the field earlier. And this is the second time this has happened. The RWC Qf against the AB’s, and not getting Crowley onto the field was a huge mistake. Finally, finally, watching Italy play was a joy. How wonderful that they are no longer the punchbag of the 6 N.
44 Go to commentsGreat story. Rugby needs new investment in teams like Brussels another pro league in Europe would be great.
1 Go to commentsAlso, looking at the data from last year, it seemed like by far the two biggest predictors of success were (1) kicking more than your opponents, and (2) having a higher rate of line-out wins than your opponents. I haven’t gone through the stats this year with a fine tooth comb, but the increase in kicks per game and the increase in tries from lineouts would suggest that these two metrics are only getting more important. England’s move away from a kick-heavy game to win against Ireland was seen by some as evidence that running rugby is on the rise. Alternatively it could be taken as evidence that if one team kicks more, and the other team wins more lineouts (as England did) a match is bound to be close to a draw.
3 Go to commentsI have been finding it odd that points per 22 entry has become such a talked about stat, given that your points per entry can be driven down by having more entries. These data would seem to confirm that it isn’t a useful metric, or at any rate is less useful than total entries.
3 Go to commentsI think the last two games England have played is some of their best rugby they have played under Borthwick. There has been a lot more attacking instinct and as a reward have created some well worked tries. Ollie Lawrence is a good foil at 12 as he offers the hard direct lines whilst the rest of the backs can play open. As much as it pains me to say but I do hope England keep playing this way. On a side note my favourite try of the weekend was Lorenzo Pani’s for the nice loop play that put him away and his finish was excellent. Thanks as always Nick.
44 Go to commentsMost exciting player on the planet right now, worth the price of a ticket.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith and Ireland live rent free in Safa’s heads. Their comments only triggers because its true. If the Boks had dismantled a 14 man AB’s, then there would be more respect. But they didnt, in fact quite the opposite, the 14 man NZ were clearly better. And the Bok have always been ordinary between RWC’s, thats why their supporters are now ‘only RWC’s matter’. They know thats BS. Its BS to both AB’s and Bok’s due to their history. But now its all the Safas have. Now we’ll hear excuses when they lose “oh we didnt have all our players available, the ABs/France/Eng/Irel were at full strength”, forgetting for a minute that its because of their own dumb policy. Oh well, makes a change from blaming ‘cheating refs’.
24 Go to commentsNo Nick, they did not, in fact, justify any ‘probables’ label. At no time did they seriously compete for the championship. Ireland led from start to finish and in the end, as a result of glaring referee errors, were never under serious pressure to lose their crown.
44 Go to commentsMoney for him, and his family, has been the sole motivator since he signed for Queensland aged 17. Why else sign for Melbourne. Tupou is poorly advised. If he’d stayed and developed in NZ he would have had a long Test career. If Leinster offer him a few more coins than he’s currently earning, he’s goneburger.
4 Go to commentsFinn. No one would say Ford had played well up until the last game. One standout performance in 5 is hardly in form . It should be a given that a 10 will control play . Not in Fords case be praised for suddenly doing so. Where was he against Scotland ,Italy. The pundits were saying how far away from play he was standing and one even said that the Ireland game was his last chance saloon to perform . Not exactly top form catching anyones eye. If he can play like this game after game then great. Keep him in . But after 90 odd caps we all know he just doesnt keep it going . By all means keep him there but the issue is that Borthwick will persist even when he plays poorly. Which is more often than not. Thats why i am concerned that Smith ,despite fab form , cannot get a game at his preferred spot. Can you imagine Ford at full back .
5 Go to commentsI do not really get why put Ollivon at 6 when he’s a 7, while Cros was the best Frenchman of the tournament, playing at…6. His only game replacing Aldritt at 8 doesn’t change much in terms of his impact. Lamaro was also outstanding in that brilliant Italian side, probably better than Reffell. So putting 2 Welsh players from the wooden spoon holders, and none of the 4th nation (Scotland) is also strange. Is it about showing that in this harsh transition Wales is, there were some standouts…?
6 Go to commentsThe events at this year’s six nations should undermine many of the arguments made against promotion and relegation between the six nations and the REC. If Italy had been allowed to yo-yo between divisions it conceivably could have really hurt their development, but if Italy, Wales, and Scotland are all at risk of relegation, with none of them being relegated more often than once every 3 or 4 years, you’d have to back all of them to muddle on through it, especially when you factor in the likelihood they’ll still be guaranteed world league matches against tier 1 opponents. Another way of looking at italys resurgence would be to say that the development model of adding an extra team to the six nations has worked, and now must be done again. Georgia could join to make it a 7 team round robin, and if and when Georgia demonstrate an ability to consistently win games, Portugal can also be added to make it an 8 team 2 conference competition. Frankly at this point I think it falls to world rugby to demand that the 6N act in the interests of the game. If the 6N won’t commit to expansion then the 6N teams should be handicapped in world cup draws (i.e. world cup seedings would not be based on their ranking points, but on their ranking points minus a 5 point penalty).
6 Go to commentsSteve Borthwick deserves credit for releasing the shackles on his England side and letting them play in a manner that somewhat resembles the top sides in the Gallagher Premiership. Will they revert to type in New Zealand in July.?
44 Go to commentsJames Lowe wouldn't get in any other 6N team. He's a great example of Farrell’s brilliance, and the Irish system. He is slow. His footwork is poor. But he fits perfectly in that Irish system, and has a superb impact. But put him in another team, and he'll look bang average.
6 Go to commentsCrusaders reached their heights through recruitment of North Island players, often leaving those NI teams bereft of key players. Example: Scott Barrett and Sam Whitelock robbed the Canes of their lineout and AB locks. For years the Canes have struggled at lock. This rabid recruitment was iniated by rule changes by a Crusader dominated NZR Head Office. Now this aggressive recruitment has back-fired, going after young inside back Hamilton Boys stars. They now have 4 Chiefs region 10s and not one with the requisite experience at Super level. Problems of their own making!
4 Go to comments