The Welsh media, having seen their own national team fall to 11th in the world and record just one home win in the past two years, were a little perplexed at the level of angst gripping New Zealand when the All Blacks rolled into Cardiff to play their final Test of 2025.
Wales are also in the midst of some heavy-duty political upheaval, so it was maybe no wonder they couldn’t understand why New Zealanders were fretting so much about an All Blacks side that sits number two in the world.
But it’s a matter of expectation rather than absolutes. Wales may well be ecstatic if they could jump to number two in the next 12 months, but for the All Blacks, it’s one rung too low on the ladder for them to be satisfied.
Their stated and non-negotiable aspiration is to be the best team in the world – recognised not just by their ranking, but by the titles they win, and the style of rugby they play.
Kiwis want not just a suite of metrics, they also want a definitive sense the All Blacks are leading the world in every aspect – playing smarter, innovative rugby everyone else is trying to copy.
And the prevailing feeling in New Zealand is the All Blacks are not ticking many – if any – of the boxes they need to, and their current world ranking is a generous assessment of where they truly sit against their peers.
Most observers would argue the All Blacks are probably a bit behind France, and maybe -maybe not – on a level with Argentina whose attack game is quite brilliant.
In the two years since Scott Robertson was appointed head coach and led an enormous cleanout of long-standing coaching and management personnel as well as support staff, the All Blacks have won 74% of their Tests (20 from 27) – a figure below the historic benchmark of 76%.
They haven’t won any major campaigns of note – coming second in the Rugby Championships of 2024 and 2025 and failing to collect a Grand Slam this November.
They have retained the Bledisloe Cup, but given the continued plight of the Wallabies, no-one can realistically put that on the table as proof of achievement.
But the bigger concern in New Zealand is on the more subjective matter of what type of rugby the All Blacks are playing and whether they are leading the world with their attack patterns, defensive structures and breadth of skillsets, the gut feeling is they are falling further behind South Africa, and now England too.
Most observers would argue the All Blacks are probably a bit behind France, and maybe -maybe not – on a level with Argentina whose attack game is quite brilliant.
The question now they have reached the halfway point of this World Cup cycle is whether the incumbent coaching group has the right set-up, make-up and strategic vision to change the trajectory of the All Blacks over the next two years.
The next two years hold enormous financial opportunity for New Zealand Rugby – and their ability to capitalise is directly linked to the performances and results of the All Blacks.
In August-September, the All Blacks will head to South Africa to play an eight-game tour – dubbed the Greatest Rivalry – which is a 50:50 revenue share and with the final Test to be played at a yet to be declared European venue, that one match alone could be worth more than $5m to NZR.
Next year will also herald the inaugural Nations Championship and with the revenue from the finals weekend to be shared, and a bigger slice going to the two countries who play off to be one and two, there is a major incentive for the All Blacks to excel.
Also, NZR will next year begin the process of looking for All Blacks kit sponsors – front of jersey, back of shorts and training kit – hoping for a significant uplift on the estimated $60m a year it currently earns from those assets.
If the growth of the forward pack is the foundation of the optimism, much of it is lost against the continued difficulties the All Blacks have had in finding the right midfield and back three combinations.
NZR can’t afford – financially or reputationally – for the All Blacks to be well beaten in South Africa and then not make the final of the Nations Championship.
The commercial team need to be selling a story of success and so NZR’s board, led by former All Blacks captain David Kirk, have a big call to make about whether coaching change, minor or major, needs to be made to realise their ambitions.
Understandably, Robertson, speaking after the All Blacks had beaten Wales 52-26, put quite the optimistic spin on the team’s progress this year.
He said: “Now we feel we have slightly turned the corner; 45 players this year, we have got the balance of exposure and we have built a lot of combinations.
“One thing you can say, guys, I didn’t turn anything down as All Blacks coach. I took on a lot of challenges, and we have got two two-tier teams in a four-year cycle.
“Everyone else is coming for us. So if you want to be the best in the world, you have got to keep playing them, bring guys through and challenge them along the way.”
Some of his positivity is justified, because the All Blacks have built depth in their tight forwards and have the collective ability to stand up to the best and most physical packs.
So much of the modern game rests with the ability of the forwards to withstand the carnage of the collision and the frantic nature of the breakdown, as well as being able to deliver scrummaging grunt and deft lineout work.
They have quite the collection of props, and in world breakthrough player of the year Fabian Holland they have found a replica of Brodie Retallick.
They get a strong pass mark for their scrummaging, except for the two games against the Springboks where they were shoved around, and the second half against England where they lost their rhythm entirely.
Their lineout was the big success story of the season, with Holland being a banker at two, Scott Barrett rock solid at four, and plenty of opposition ball picked off.
I tell you what, if you’re sitting at full-back and you’re seeing five per cent dominance, you’re thinking, ‘man, I’m going to be making some tackles today’.
The decision to bring in Brynn Evans to oversee the lineout was a good one, as was the way Robertson held his faith in Peter Lakai, who missed the July series because of injury, but became a must-pick in the back row by the Grand Slam tour.
Lakai and Wallace Sititi – playing alongside Ardie Savea – have given the All Blacks a loose trio combination for most occasions with Simon Parker and Tupou Vaa’i capable of being the bigger body six who might appeal in certain fixtures.
The All Blacks are maybe one heavyweight loose forward short of what they will need at the World Cup, but with five, maybe six, Test quality locks and a longlist of props to work from, Project 4-4-4 is well on track in those two areas.
But if the growth of the forward pack is the foundation of the optimism, much of it is lost against the continued difficulties the All Blacks have had in finding the right midfield and back three combinations, and building an effective and cohesive attacking structure.
The season started with the surprise shifting of Rieko Ioane to the wing, to try Billy Proctor at centre, but it ended with Ioane back where he started.
Robertson just couldn’t settle on a midfield or a back three, and the biggest problem was the lack of innovation and adventure in the attack.
The All Blacks lost the art of counterattack, they couldn’t catch high balls, and their kicking game was erratic and inaccurate.
Beauden Barrett lost his way at first-five, Damian McKenzie never looked comfortable when he stepped in at 10, and the only two success stories in the backs were Cam Roigard and Caleb Clarke.
And it wasn’t just the All Blacks’ attack that was a problem, they produced just 5% dominant tackles.
“I tell you what, if you’re sitting at full-back and you’re seeing five per cent dominance, you’re thinking, ‘man, I’m going to be making some tackles today’,” former All Black Mils Muliaina said.
“That’s not good enough and that’s where teams have been able to get momentum. We’re sort of carrying and riding teams [in defence], and it means teams are dictating their terms and you can’t afford to have that.
“That’s why decision-making becomes a really key factor. If you’re riding tackles and you’re not dominating, five per cent is low, that is really low.”
Robertson’s optimism is not without foundation, but the more realistic assessment of his All Blacks at the end of 2025 is they have an enormous list of things to fix and that he hasn’t done much in the last two years for anyone to be overly confident 2026 will deliver what it must.
You keep on insulting me? What does that say about you? Football and rugby are not the same sport. Nor is cricket or hockey. You cannot compare any of them. No conspiricy just weak teams and their supporters crying for a law change that is not needed because they are too weak. Union is not league is it. If people do not like the product they do not have to watch instead of trying to spoil it for others. Yes I have played a few sports and it really is not needed for you to supply your credencials as a sportsman. It adds no value to the debate. Sick of loosing? Build a better team but to say the law must change because you cannot win is insane. What next? Ban fast strong running because Nz are better than anyone els at it? I cannot take you seriously when you say that Nz claimed they were robbed in 94! Ok this debate is over. I have no desire to be insulted by someone who knows nothing about a great sport so you win and good bye.
Scrum laws were changed to short arm pens only in 1970s after a decade of terrible scum centric international rugby. Time for that change to happen again. People have a right to mkae the argument without nonsense conspiracies being thrown at them.
I have just explained what soccer (a global game) shows how rugby isn’t. Again argue wth the points made instead of ignoring them. I’ve played a lot of sports and know about a lot of sports. Not sure you have played any?
Dominant tackle stats are a strange one, last I heard they were determined by outcomes, so it might be more that team aren’t making the tackles pay?
They were quite innovative, the only side use the sweep attack, they just looked very clunky doing it and ultimately it hurt their performances, a lack of timing, and variation the most glaring execution problems.
There is no hard grafter in those 3 loose forwards Ie Sam Cane
All carry well, tackle Ardie gets 1 turnover per game ish. But not hard grafter or worker
Gregor makes a good argument of forwards OK, backs not.
The All Blacks failed in attack because Beauden Barrett wasn't up to his previous form, and Razor did not blood two new 10’s as he should have.
Waiting for Mounga who has not played test rugby for 3 years has been a mistake. Injuries will show the All Blacks need four top 10’s. Not playing Ruben Love at 10 anytime on the Northern tour has been nuts.
This is the main reason fans are worried about the All Blacks.
We are waiting for David Kirk to right the ship.
Jeez, guys. 10 out of 13. The ABs are fine… Well positioned going into ‘27…& Bill will be played in their backyard. So much angst for no reason…
Absolutely - no need to do anything different at all.
Once a break dancer always a break dancer - my dad would turn in his grave (and he was a Cantab from Akaroa). I’m a Jaffa so always great rivalry. I came to the U.K. for RWC 2007 😭 I was at Eden Park 2011, Twickenham 2015 and Paris 2023. If Razor remains in charge I won’t waste my time heading to Oz 2027. The NZRFU have huge responsibility to take for the unprofessional (it’s a professional sport remember) for the manner in which they dumped Ian Foster. Then this week in Wales (I was there for £60 - couldn’t afford Twickenham at £140), Razor has the audacity to put all on the shoulders of Scott Hansen, who he says operates the role of Head Coach. NZRFU - time to right your previous wrong (2023) and appoint someone who at least might give us an even chance in 2027. There are candidates out there with far more proven credentials than Razor. His best opportunity from here would be 2026 ‘Strictly Come Dancing’ 😭
The All Blacks are a victim of their success and the falling standards of Super Rugby pacific is honestly not getting the younger talent up to speed with international rugby, yes they're building but what happens when the last few guys who played from the McCaw and Reed era retire after the world cup? All those guys who were forged under that era are the only reason the All Blacks have been competitive.Scott Robertson maybe was a bit naive in his approach thinking what worked for the crusaders might work for the All Blacks but he shouldn't be the sole reason for the “decline” Super Rugby pacific is not helping guys are learning as they go playing international rugby
Razor himself identified the problem when he acknowledged in Cardiff that Scott Hansen is in fact coaching the group. For any NZ fan that pretty much explains everything and that is the change that must happen.
Either Razor coaches (as he was appointed to do) or bring in someone else
I must say that’s an extraordinary thing for an international head coach to admit - I don’t actually coach - I’m more of a culture coach. The term mind boggling really is fitting.
Jamie. Joseph. 🏆🍺👍
Watch the support for him evaporate when he fails, catastrophically, again, in SRP.
ABs season defined by three halves. Key problems exposed. Lack of onfield leadership; poor defensive structures and a misfiring impact pack. All of these problems are definitely fixable with right coaching. But that might be the hardest fix.
Yet another example of the delusions and defeatism that drive NZ rugby, NZR, a big chunk of its fans and almost all its journalists, that if you are not first and winning everything you are fourth, at best, and nowhere.
Its all defined by the idea, increasingly common amongst NZ rugby "supporters", that even though Robertsons AB's have beaten England 3 to 1 and France 3 to 1, that they are somehow behind them. I suppose its a way of explaining away the fact that Robertson has the 2nd best test win rate over the last two years at 74%, ahead of both England 70%, or 16 from 23, and well ahead of France, 55% or 12 from 22. Exclude non-6N and TRC teams, and England falls to 61% and France to 50%, while NZ remains at 73%.
The claim that the AB's are in fact behind France, that beating France B/C means nothing, ignores the major downward trend in the French A team, which is aging badly, has a pathetically weak front row and a coach that has lost his way and could well give up if nothing changes in 6N 2026. It is absolutely true that France has depth, but all that means is that its C has a strong chance of beating its A team, and that its A team is definitely 5th.
And as for England, they beat Hansen's AB's far more convincingly in 2012 yet ended up being eliminated at the group stage of their own RWC. The England team is defined by false dawns, single victories extrapolated into global supremacy. England get a Grand Slam in 6N 2026 by beating a rebuilding Ireland, a France in chaos and Scotland, who they regularly lose to, and you can make a case they are 2nd. But then the world ranking system will do that for them.
A month ago Robertson changed the conversation about new players by pointing out that 19 new players had debuted since he took over, a direct and unequivocal contradiction of the common claim that he wasn't renewing the team. It is entirely typical of the NZ rugby journalism that he was the one who had to point that out, that no journalist, including Gregor Paul, had bothered to do any research on such a controversial matter. They were all happy to repeat the "feeling", the "perception" it was true rather than the facts. Which is what Gregor Paul is doing here. Again.
France B and C at least have players who want to play for team, France A doesnt.
But look, on your topic of the author, it depends really what you are trying to say or reply to, because now Paul can’t write to save himself and this is yet another typical article that says nothing, that has no substance, all he really says is..
So while I feel like what you’re trying to argue is the ‘common’ attitude thats prevailing at the moment, and those people definitely need the perspective you are providing here, but the crux of this limited article certainly has some merit. I guess you accept that as you don’t argue against these points.
Basically you can some up the situation from your last paragraph. Razor is doing half the job right, he’s selecting all the right players, he’s just not using them very well yet. He’s admitted to this and from the sound of his interviews in the last week, I think he’s going to come back next year a better and revitalized coach.
His win rate is inflated with three wins home wins against a team that would struggle to beat Italy on a bad day. I agree that the AB’s are not nearly as far off the pace as many seem to think but I don’t think win rates are always a fair indication - one or two aberrations can skew the rate.
Great comment. The stats are facts but facts don't draw the readers like a more doom, gloom article would.
Up the mighty All Blacks, all day, until our last day.
🖤
I’m always amazed at how wildly the narrative around the ABs swings. The truth of the matter is that the ABs are building, albeit they are building VERY slowly. Predominantly because, unlike the ABs of the past, they are not allowed to make mistakes and take risks which is how innovation is nurtured.
This team are expected to win 100% of their games, emphatically, or they are trash.
The biggest problem NZ rugby is facing is a public fan base that is negative and can’t get behind them unless they emulate the great AB team of 2015, and with immediate effect.
As if the ABs and NZers possess some magical ability to play rugby better than anyone else just by pitching up.
It takes hard work and time. Some losses along the way too.
Be realistic and get behind your side, win or lose. Show them some love and stop moaning.
You wanted Razor, you can’t turf him now because then you’re really f*cked.
Discuss.
Ok course we can chuck him out if he doesn't perform.. complete bollocks…
You’ve been having too many morning coffees with Razor.
I would accept the last 2 years win/ loss ratio if it had been while a new generation of talented young players was blooded and had 15-20 caps each now. However Razor has not been brave with selection or innovation, the vast majority of new caps have been forced on him due to injury. He's been scared to lose, so hasn't blooded the new talent and we still haven't won. The last 2 years has been largely wasted. Zero ambition to get anyone new into the 10 jumper, just pined for Richie instead. The backline is less than the sum off it's parts and seemingly has no coherent game plan. I really wanted Razor in the job, I really want him to succeed, but he's been a tremendous disappointment so far. That's not a negative Kiwi fan, that's reality.
The most accurate statement I’ve come across. All too typically, from a non-New Zealander.
Certainly, maybe, behind England who just beat them. Which is worse than death.
Most other top teams are also building caps in their forward pack, so it’s no excuse. He’s not a test-level coach, he doesn’t have what it takes to be a leader. The way he got the job in the first place, playing games to put pressure on NZR to select him, speaks volumes of his character.
I reckon Scott Hansen doesn’t have what it takes either. I suspect he’s killing the confidence of his players. Post match feedback is all very negative and blaming players instead of taking ownership as a coach. I good leader needs to protect his players to a certain degree, the players need to have the confidence to play with freedom and come up with solutions themselves.
I personally think that the congestion of the 2026 fixtures have saved Razor. Even they had a coach in the wings to take over, they couldn’t do it across 6 months of a closed test window.
He seems a likeable and sincere guy and has never once used the media to throw his own players under the bus. He was class personified in his immediate interviews after the 10-43 humbling.
He just doesn’t seem to be test level as a coach. He’s a selector rather than a tactician although even some of his recent selection calls have been puzzling. Not least a total refusal to dish out the caps and get blooding younger talent.
There isn’t a single metric by which you could say the ABs are leading the way in the game and because of their coach. So unlike them.
Good article. There is cause for optimism over the number of players coming through but right now one cant help feeling that NZ are standing still in the rugby world while others are moving.
The Allblacks have been really passive in important passages of play. Strong defence with serious in ball runners didn't occur, this season noticeably worse than last year with the two thrashings given the Allblacks by the Boks and England.
It's sadly definitely time to sack Robertson and his assistants, installing the no nonsense Jamie Joseph.
The Allblacks have the cattle to hurt their opponents upfront but they're passive and Dalton needs to come back in and the fixing of defence in the middle with Rieko and Quinn combining with Jordie, Ennor and ALB. No more strange picks with Timoci and the passive Proctor.
Kirk needs to be honest, Robertson hasn't fired two years later and needs to go.
Like most ABs fans hugely frustrated that we have not seen transformation and with the persistent systemic flaws. But need to look at key incontrovertible facts - ABs lost three times this year. Boks lost twice this year and nearly lost to Argentina at Twickers. No way Robertson will be dumped with those facts. I would like to see Joseph there - he would be ideal to keep working with the AB XV who then make up a large part of the dirt trackers in SA and for him to travel with them in a “head” coach role in SA. That way he could influence the shape and direction of ABs within the existing framework. If Robertson is the “Manager” he purports to be he would welcome that prospect. As for Joseph he has shown a desire to be involved. By the WC he could assume the “Head Coach” role for the ABs while Robertson is the Manager. Dreaming - maybe - but they could end up the Dream team (unlike the silly co coach Grizz / Hart team)
I would have Joe Schmidt on any coaching ticket just for the accuracy. NZ are accurate then they have the cattle to impose any game on opponents.
All Blacks game has regressed, they only win games due to brilliance of a few players. No innovation no creativity no exploitation of opposition weakness. No true player cohesion with a strong game imposing on the opposition. In short Razor is not the right coach and need to go. With Razor remaining there’s no way the AB’s going to be competitive in the quarter finals
Well said. You don't put a player into a position he has never played. That is a huge RISK. The player was nervous. So would I be. Now, critically thinking Quinn, executed that position.
Cannot afford to do that.
Well, it would be very interesting to see how Scotty, prioritises his key players and strategically mould them than what he has been doing. (i.e. versatile and utility)
This is why they scrambled around the field losing the most important games in history.
Well, we have young blood, Experience, and the injured.
Lot of work to be done not to mention who will replace Jason and McDonald.. 🤔
This is definitely a must for the coaching team to Critical thinking about: the 4 W's and the big Q is HOW? Back to the drawing board.
Not excuses. This is a new era, new team, and quite frankly, on a positive it is time to consolidate and make a shift with the best.
GOOD LUCK ALL BLACKS 👍
2 comments in this article by Gregor sum up his real lack of analytical skills.
Firstly :
The season started with the surprise shifting of Rieko Ioane to the wing, to try Billy Proctor at centre, but it ended with Ioane back where he started.
It certainly wasn’t a surprise to most serious rugby followers in NZ and here in Australia. It was blatantly obvious that Ioane was not fitted for the centre position and a change had to be made. And the team for the last test was very definitely a second XV and those players who had not played a game on tour were always going to get a run.
Secondly:
Beauden Barrett lost his way at first-five.
To most realistic analysts it has been quite apparent for some time that BB is not an international number 10 and this season he has been comprehensively out played by 4 opposing number 10s.
Perhaps the most surprising comment of the year was Gregor’s when he wrote after the French tour that BB had locked in the number 10 position for the RWC 2027.
That sentence sums up why most informed critics rate him as one of NZ’s most mediocre rugby journalists and bluntly the competition for that spot is pretty wide.
10 wins in a test season, and with the injuries to key players, not a bad result
Three of those wins against a French B/C side that would struggle to beat Italy.
The woeful Wallabies x2 Fr C x3 and Wales x1..6 tests that don't count..standards have dropped..we used to rate our success by measuring the AB v the top sides. Beat the Boks x1 and got flogged x1.biggest defeat ever..capitulated...well beaten by Eng.
Not that good at all…
Correct.
It is extremely average for the greatest Rugby team of all time: The All Blacks