Analysis: Why this is the worst tactical kick in rugby and hurts every team that uses it
The basic premise of the territorial kick is trading possession for territory, giving the ball to the opposition but in a disadvantegous position in the field.
What qualifies as a ‘good’ kicking game has changed over the last 10 years as teams skew towards more contestable kicks at the expense of long-range drives that end up handing away possession easily for poor net gains.
The impact of poor kicking is rarely outlined and the players responsible aren’t universally criticised, yet the outcomes can be as adverse as knock-on’s or more visible errors, costing valuable field position or points, putting their own side in poor match situations.
The outdated long drive
What has become one of the worst kicks in rugby is the long hoof down the middle of the field, which achieves a lot of kick metres in the air but limited net gains as the opposition can often bring it back and set up play much closer.
Unless the kick is completed quickly after winning a turnover where the opposition has an empty backfield, it is usually a poor option.
The kicking team usually has no chance in regathering the ball, guaranteeing the opposition possession whilst they can regain a lot of the metres achieved through the air running it back on the ground.
Against the Crusaders, Bulls’ flyhalf Handre Pollard has possession on the edge of his own 22 following a kickoff and drives a long-range kick down the middle of the field.
Pollard’s long kick finds David Havili after nearly a 50-metre gain through the air, down to about 33-metres out from the opposition tryline. On the face of it, it seems like a good kick.
However, with a good carry or spreading the ball to the edge, the Crusaders could easily make back nearly 20-metres and set up play around halfway, taking back nearly half the territory easily.
From the 40-metre line Havili decides to return with his own kick, a contestable bomb of a shorter distance about 20-metres long with a supporting kick chaser.
Havili wins the aerial contest regaining his own kick and sets up a Crusaders possession 40-metres out from the Bulls try line.
Pollard’s original kick ends up with a net gain of just 21-metres and hands the ball over to the opposition, a poor result.
The key difference is Pollard’s long kick had a 0% chance of being recovered with no aerial contest possible whilst Havili’s counter bomb had a decent 50% chance with a one-on-one aerial contest. A long kick was countered by a contestable one, and the Crusaders setup great attacking field position.
Aside from Havili’s return serve, the best case scenario for Pollard’s kick is the Crusaders’ kick returner coughs up the ball in a tackle around halfway (a low % outcome).
The most likely outcome is the Crusaders’ setting up a ruck on halfway and beginning to attack, with the Bulls trading possession for a 30-metre net gain on territory.
Here is the realisation most top sides have made – kicking to win a net gain of 30-metres with a 0% or extremely low chance of getting the ball back is an inferior option to kicking a contestable ball just 20-metres with a 50% chance of regaining possession.
Over time, you win a fair share of these opportunities whilst only foregoing about 10-metres of extra territory to do so.
The better original option for the Bulls from the edge of their own 22 would be to hoist a contestable box kick or bomb that would land around their own 40-m with a decent chance to get it back with a good kick-chase.
In this situation, the Bulls did have a chance to get the ball back around the 40-m line on Havili’s return kick, but it was an unplanned aerial contest with their halfback Andre Riaan Warner, instead of a specialist jumper that could’ve been planned on their own contestable kick.
The Bulls win a turnover less than a minute later and Pollard attempts the same long-driving kick landing in almost the exact same spot.
George Bridge (11) picks up possession and senses the opportunity to counter-attack on the left edge where the Bulls have just three defenders across half the width of the field.
Bridge slips the first defender’s tackle and wins back even more territory than the best-case scenario for the Bulls. Unfortunately for the home side, it ends up much more than that.
He links with Goodhue on the Bulls 40-metre line, and he continues the movement by finding Mitchell Dunshea who scores in the corner, the ultimate worst-case result for Pollard’s poor kick – conceding a kick return try.
Against the All Blacks in November, Ben Youngs (9) from the safety of the 22 tries to go long but fails to find touch, keeping the ball in play.
The ball finds Damian McKenzie (15) on the full next to the sideline, with no pressure, who finds Beauden Barrett (10) back towards the middle. The box illustrates where a potential contestable kick would have landed.
Barrett finds a crease and gets upfield on the kick return, finding his way all way down to 45-metre out from England’s line, where a contest would have been yet the All Blacks didn’t have to, taking possession in the same position without having to compete for it.
The next phase Damian McKenzie throws a ball around the corner to Ben Smith sparking a potential scoring opportunity but the last pass is missed.
This time Youngs doesn’t have the safety of the 22 but still sends it as long as possible, instead of kicking a contestable high ball for Jack Nowell.
Liam Williams (15), one of the best aerial fullbacks in the game, catches the ball without any bother and is able to eat up the metres on the return.
He ends up about only a metre in front of where a contestable kick would have been, and Wales have possession in good field position to attack from.
England are in the same defensive position they would be in had Youngs kicked shorter, but they don’t have the same opportunity to regain the ball.
Handre Pollard and Ben Youngs are both regarded as smart ‘tactical kickers’ yet use this kick, much like many others without realising it is poor strategically. Australian and South African Super Rugby sides also suffer from over-kicking long and giving up possession for limited net gains instead of continually competing for the ball with shorter kicks.
The bottom line – if the kick is not creating chances to compete for possession it is probably costing you.
Sean O’Brien ruled out of the World Cup:
Comments on RugbyPass
Je suis sûr que Farrell est impatient de jouer avec Lopez et Machenaud et d’être entraîné par Collazo… 🤭
1 Go to commentsAn on field red (aka a full red) in SRP must surely carry a bigger suspension than a red card given by the bunker as that carries a 20 minute team punishment. Had Damon Murphy abdicated his responsibility as a ref and issued both Drua players a yellow, which would have been upgraded to a 20 minute red by the bunker, that would have killed Australia and New Zealand’s push for the 20 minute red to be trialled globally from July this year.
11 Go to commentsEver so often you all post a Danny Care story that isn’t the announcement that he has finally re-signed for one more, victory tour season at Quins and I’m just like, “well you fooled me again!” My absolute favorite player ever, we need to make his final year at the Stoop (and Twickers) official already. I know he supposedly snubbed France but I won’t feel better until he signs.
1 Go to commentslate hit what late hit it wasn’t at all late and can clearly see he was committed before the tackle
1 Go to commentsChristian Lio -Willies 2 try perfomance was a standout. As was captain Scott Barrett. Up front was where the boys won it.They are a great team and players. Fantastic Crusades , you can keep going.
1 Go to commentsI don't know how the locals feel about that? I guess if you call yourselves the Worcester Wasps that might be appease. But really we need more teams in the Premiership in my view so they are not padding it out as they are at the moment. It might curtail so many players going abroad as well
5 Go to commentsNZ 😭😭😭is certainly rivaling England for best whingers cup!😭😭😭 !!!
25 Go to commentsYup. New Zealand won 3 out of 10 world cups played. SA 4 out of 8 attempts 30 Vs 50 per cent.🤔🤔
25 Go to commentsShould've done this years ago. Change Saturday kick off times to around 11am. Up and off and back home before 3pm, limit travel time too. Allows players to actually do something else with their Saturday that's family oriented or being rugby fans they could ‘watch’ pro rugby. Increases crowds etc. How can anyone that enjoys grassroots and pro rugby have to choose between the two on Saturdays?
9 Go to commentsI bet he inspired those supporters just as much.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
25 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
9 Go to commentsPick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to commentsLike tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
25 Go to commentsHaving overseas possessions in 2024 is absurd. These Frenchies should have to give the New Caledonians their freedom.
21 Go to commentsBell injured his foot didn’t he? Bring Tupou in he’ll deliver when it counts. Agree mostly but I would switch in the Reds number 8 Harry Wilson for Swinton and move Rob Valentini to 6 instead. Wilson is a clever player who reads the play, you can’t outmuscle the AB’s and Springboks, if you have any chance it’s by playing clever. Same goes for Paisami, he’s a little guy who doesn’t really trouble the likes of De Allende and Jordie Barrett. I’d rather play Carter Gordon at 12 and put Michael Lynagh’s boy at 10. That way you get a BMT type goalkicker at 10 and a playmaker at 12. Anyways, just my two cents as a Bok supporter.
14 Go to commentsThanks Brett, love your articles which are alway pertinent. It’s a difficult topic trying to have a panel adjudicating consistently penalties for red card issues. Many of the mitigating reasons raised are judged subjectively, hence the different outcomes. How to take away subjective opinions?
11 Go to commentsYes Sir! Surprising, just like Fraser would also have escaped sanction if he was a few inches lower, even if it was by accident that he missed! Has there really been talk about those sanctions or is this just sensational journalism? I stopped reading, so might have missed any notations.
11 Go to comments