All Blacks trio one win away from claiming rare piece of silverware

Games are not decided on statistics alone, which is probably just as well, otherwise Sunday’s final of Japan Rugby League One between Kobelco Kobe Steelers and Kubota Spears would be a forgone conclusion.

Such has been Kobe’s dominance this term, as evidenced by their record breaking 46-point demolition of Tokyo Sungoliath in the semi-final, statistically any result other than a comfortable win for the Kansai-based club would be considered fanciful.

Top seeds from the regular season, runaway leaders for the most tries (19 ahead of their rivals), as well as victors over Kubota less than a month ago, the title must be Kobe’s, surely?

You would be brave to bet against it, but out-going Kobe boss Dave Rennie and his men will be taking nothing for granted.

He might be the incoming All Black coach, but it has been a long time between celebratory drinks for Rennie at club level, having not won a title since the second of his Super Rugby wins with the Chiefs in 2013.

He undoubtedly learned a lot, as you do in adversity, after a difficult three years at the Wallabies, where successes for the men in gold were few and far between, with Rennie only a small fraction above current Wallaby boss Joe Schmidt as statistically the least successful Australian coach of the professional era.

So, he will be taking no chances in the preparation, having steadily improved the Kansai-based club which finished ninth the year before he took over, fifth in his first season, third a year later, and have now made the championship game as top seeds.

Head-to-Head

Last 5 Meetings

Wins

1

Draws

0

Wins

4

Average Points scored

27

31

First try wins

60%

Home team wins

40%

Skipper Brodie Retallick and star backrower Ardie Savea have similarly endured enough big game disappointments throughout their careers not to be taking the outcome, even against a seriously wounded opponent, as a fait accompli.

After sharing in the Chiefs’ two titles, and the All Blacks’ Rugby World Cup win in 2015, Retallick was in a New Zealand side that could only draw with the British & Irish Lions in 2017 and came up short in each of the 2019 and 2023 Rugby World Cups.

Further club success has proved elusive too.

The same is true of Savea, who played his first test a year after the All Blacks most recent World Cup success, was part of the beaten 2019 and 2023 sides, and the Lions series, while scoring his only club success when the Hurricanes won Super Rugby in 2017.

Such surprising career statistics around their three main men stand in contrast with the figures Kobe have run up this term, but ultimately, they are all just numbers.

And the only numbers that matter to them all now will be on the scoreboard of the National Stadium on Sunday at around 5pm Tokyo time.