LONG READ Will the 2025 Lions be more, or less, than the sum of their parts?

There will have been warm words and embraces, a host of friendly ‘Welcomes to Country’, maybe even a traditional dance or a pipe-smoking ceremony when the 2025 British & Irish Lions set foot upon Australian shores ahead of their first tour match against the Western Force in Perth on Saturday, 28 June.

But beneath the skin, eyes will gimlet and handshakes will harden as the tour winds its way around the country and the sense of threat deepens, and it becomes a sporting contest of ‘life-and-death’. Back in 1882, when the first group of young Wallaby hopefuls set off on a tour of New Zealand, Kiwi customs officials intercepted a ‘tiny revolver which a heroic Woollahra man had brought to overawe the Maoris’. There may be no guns involved this time around, but it will be war. That is the way it will be in Australia in 2025, and that is the way it was back in 2001.

After 20,000 Lions supporters hijacked the Gabba for the first Test, converting hostiles into friendlies, turning the stately cricket oval into a heaving fortress of red, the atmosphere in the country changed. The Australian Rugby Union ensured there would be no repeat for the remainder of the series, issuing large groups of Wallaby supporters with free gold hats and capes and siting them in premium spots in the heart of the stadium. Even the unoccupied seats were yellow, a little taste of home.

Psychological warfare is always a huge feature of tours by the Lions and for the most part it is conducted through the media.  The 2025 war of words has already begun

‘Waltzing Matilda’ drowned out the Lions’ chorus over the intercom whenever the red wall ventured to break into song. Visiting fans found themselves banished to distant corners of the ground for the deciding Test in Sydney. They could be seen dimly but heard only rarely. Sport in Australia is a serious matter.

Psychological warfare is always a huge feature of tours by the Lions and for the most part it is conducted through the media.  The 2025 war of words has already begun, and even a coach as considered as Joe Schmidt has already been drawn into it. There may be an excuse for a Rassie Erasmus, a Steve Hansen or a Warren Gatland to play the psy-ops game, but clean-cut Joe? Surely not.

A rugby mentor any player would be glad to bring home for a cup of tea with his Mum fired the first shot after learning of Andy Farrell’s selection for the preliminary game against Argentina. Commenting on the centre pairing of Otahuhu-born Bundee Aki and Melbourne Rebels discard Sione Tuipulotu, he could not resist having a dig. It mattered not one jot that Aki qualified for Ireland legitimately through residency, or that Tuipulotu’s grandmother was born in Greenock on the south bank of the River Clyde.

“A southern hemisphere centre partnership like that will be pretty formidable,” Schmidt said. “I coached Bundee for several years and know him really well, and respect him massively as a player. He’s a great contributor to the team environment.

“I’ve only had glancing conversations with Sione but again, by all accounts a champion bloke. You don’t get to be captain of a national team without being a great bloke, and truly professional in those high-performance environments. They are real athletes, those two together.”

Farrell played mostly in the forwards in League but as a 12 in Union, he has inherited a preference for size and power in the back-line from that decorated dual-code background.

With six other southern hemisphere-bred members of the Lions squad also qualifying for northern nations via either residency or family, it was left to Lions’ attack coach Richard Wigglesworth to fire back:

“I don’t know if [Schmidt is] questioning their commitment? Everyone has earned the right to pull on the Lions jersey. They are, to a man, incredibly proud to be here. It is not your background or how you have got here, it’s what sort of player you are and what sort of man you are. We have got great men and great players.”

The needle has only just started, but make no mistake: it will get a lot, lot sharper. Those first warning shots did at least focus the main areas of interest at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin. Andy Farrell played mostly in the forwards in League but as a 12 in Union, he has inherited a preference for size and power in the backline from that decorated dual-code background. League forward Sam Burgess came into late, but spectacular, contention for England at the 2015 World Cup and like ‘Faz’ he was seen mostly as a loose forward in the sister code, but a 12 on the opposite bank of the great divide.

Farrell’s first selection as a head coach of the Lions therefore contained two natural 12s in the centres [Aki and Tuipulotu] with a pair of giant wings [Tommy Freeman and Duhan van der Merwe] bookending them. Every one of the three-quarters weighed well over 100 kilos, so two relatively tiny playmakers – the twin Smiths, Fin and Marcus – were installed at 10 and 15 to play facilitator to those big bodies. Could the ‘Big Back theory’ advance to the series successfully? Could the ‘Fin and Marcus’ double act prove to be a Test-worthy playmaking axis?

The answer to both questions on a hot and sticky night in the Irish capital was probably ‘No’, and it would be a surprise to see either experiment repeated in the three-match series versus the Wallabies. On attack, there were early signs of promise in the first quarter. Under the new protocols which demand a free contest in the air, winning contestable ball has become a premium priority for both sides:

Here are the bare bones of the Faz design: two long passes from the pair of ball-playing Smiths release one of the giants [Van der Merwe] against a one-on-one tackle – a contest where he can be relied upon to beat the first defender. Then one of two playmakers [Marcus] remains available to provide the ammunition on the following phase of play, with another long pass to another big ball-carrier in space.

The idea of two big men playing together on the same edge almost bore fruit three minutes later:

First the two Smiths shift the point-of-attack over to the far 15m line, and one of them [Fin] is still available to move the ball back to other side, where the two big wings [Freeman and Van der Merwe] can use their size to work some offloading magic on the near-side touch-line.

It was quick hands through the ball by Marcus and Fin which created the first Lions’ try of the tour for big Bundee, as the theoretical outline finally sharpened into practical focus:

But overall, the negatives outweighed the positives, not least when the ball was in the air and available to both teams. Argentina had twice the number of  reclaims from their own high kicks and as ex-Munster and Lions’ scrum-half Conor Murray noted on the Sky Sports analysis panel at half-time:

“Their kicking game is on the money. They have been putting balls in the air and they have been winning them back. They have been brilliant in the air and they are not looking to kick again, they are looking to move the ball after they win it back.”

One of the issues with the Lions’ backfield defence was that it tended to spot two smaller players [Fin and Marcus] under those contestables, and the Pumas duly made hay while the sun was shining on them, on both sides of half-time:

In both instances, Argentine right wing Rodrigo Isgró beats first Fin, then Duhan to first touch in the air, and the Pumas are prepared to play through the unstructured field which has been presented to them on the next play. The first sequence is especially instructive, as an illustration of Sione Tuipulotu’s tendency to turn in on the ball-carrier in typical No.12 fashion and lose connection with the wing outside him [Freeman]. This is not the kind of decision that a natural outside centre like Garry Ringrose would make.

The uncertainties of Tuipulotu at 13 and the cumbersome nature of the ‘big backline’ on D was repeated for the Pumas’ first try of the game:

First Sione fails to call enough forwards across the back of the first ruck [only two Lions forwards make it], then he sits down right in front of outstanding Pumas playmaker Tomas Albornoz without developing any line-speed, and with the defensive front already clearly overlapped. The issue is compounded by Duhan van der Merwe, too late to swing around in support of his full-back in the backfield ‘pendulum’ on the far flank when the threat materializes.

The Argentine counter was also far too quick for the ‘big backs’ recovery defence when the Lions made a handling mistake out wide:

Argentina fully deserved their victory over the Lions in Dublin on Friday night – in fact they would have won more comfortably than they did if Tuipulotu’s forward pass in the build-up to the Lions’ third try had not been missed. 28-17 would have been a fairer reflection of the balance of power out on the field.

Lions head coach Andy Farrell experimented in the backs, with two lithe Smiths oiling the rails for the big wheels of Van der Merwe, Aki, Tuipulotu and Freeman to roll down the track. It worked in fits and start on attack, but the experiment is unlikely to be repeated on D. The response times are simply too slow and uncertain on the front line, and less than commanding behind it, for another dress rehearsal in the tour proper.

In the meantime, rugby supporters on both sides can enjoy the opening salvoes in the war of words. Enjoy it while it lasts, because the playfulness will soon evaporate as the pressure ratchets up. The phoney war is only just beginning.