Australia has finally grasped the nettle – now it is Wales’ turn to follow the Aussie template, and shrink to regional success. On 30 May 2024, Rugby Australia announced one of its five professional franchises, the Melbourne Rebels, would not play in Super Rugby Pacific 2025. It was a bold and controversial decision, but it was probably the right one for the future of the professional game in the country.
John F Kennedy once remarked “those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable”. There comes a moment when evolution within an established system needs to stop if it has not produced definite, observable results. When that tipping point arrives, a revolution is necessary.
From RA’s point of view, the Rebels were AUD $23m in debt and had yet to “demonstrate financial stability”. According to the union, plans for the future presented by a consortium led by former Qantas chairman Leigh Clifford carried an unacceptable level of risk. RA chair Dan Herbert claimed the Rebels board had “let rugby stakeholders in Victoria down”, before expanding thus:
“We are now six years away from where Rugby Australia paid AUD $13.8 million towards Rebels debts back in 2017 and gave an additional AUD $6 million of funding.
“There’s been tens of millions of dollars spent on this franchise over and above other Super Rugby clubs.”
The club entered voluntary administration in January 2024 and RA chose to invoke its right not to renew the Rebels’ participation agreement for the 2025 season. A long and tortuous legal wrangle has ensued, with the Rebels now seeking AUD $30m in damages through the courts.
Even the bare bones of that scenario Down Under will now seem grimly familiar to rugby watchers in Wales. On 18 May, it was reported the Welsh Rugby Union had activated a two-year notice on the Professional Rugby Agreement [PRA] with its four regions, having failed to reach a consensus with the two West Walian franchises, the Ospreys and the Scarlets. All four professional entities were given a deadline to ink a new deal by 8 May, but only union-owned Cardiff and the Dragons signed on the dotted line.
As in Australia, there is a powerful undercurrent of mutual suspicion between the union and private ownership. Only one month ago, the WRU had assumed control of Cardiff, absorbing £9m of debt in the process. The Ospreys [owned by Y11 Sport & Media] and the Scarlets [owned by Llanelli RFC] promptly took a step back, asking for “key issues” of the takeover to be resolved before signing.
The union is currently looking to refinance its existing NatWest and Welsh government debt facility, but since negotiations began on the form of the new PRA last year the amount of investment demanded from the ‘Regional Principal Investors’ [shorthand for private benefactors] has increased from an estimated £22m to around £41m over the five-year term.
Under the terms of the new PRA, the union has far more flexibility about where and how it allocates its money. Any increase in profits no longer has to be ploughed automatically into servicing debt at four professional clubs. The debt allocation is worth £800K p/a to the Dragons and Cardiff within their individual £6.5m seasonal budget, but it could be far less for remaining region[s] if either one franchise is dropped completely, or the union opts for a 3+1, or 2+2 model.
A reduction from four to three teams is the most likely option, and it will help make Welsh rugby far more competitive at club/provincial level. It may even make them winners again. After expanding to five teams with the introduction of the Western Force in 2006 and the Rebels in 2011, Australia only produced two champions [the 2001 Reds and the 2014 Waratahs] and two other finalists in 17 seasons. That compared to two winners and three other finalists in in the 10 seasons prior to expansion.
The two new franchises only enjoyed two winning years in 26 full Super Rugby seasons between them, and they had to wait until 2024 for their one solitary play-off appearance, by the Rebels. Everything looked rosy in the Welsh rugby garden after the 2003 shift to regionalisation: there were five wins in the first nine years of URC [or equivalent] participation between 2003 and 2012. But it was the prelude to a very long drought, with one more championship win in the past 14 years. Ironically, all those titles were won by the two franchises now in open rebellion, the Scarlets and Ospreys.
It has been even worse in European competition, with no Welsh appearances at all in Champions Cup finals since 2003 and a paltry two wins [by Cardiff] in the second-tier Challenge Cup over the same period. It is a very modest return for a country in love with the game. The format of regional rugby has failed in Wales and Australia. It was the same story repeated north and south of the equator, but only outsiders seemed able to see the resemblances lucidly, and without bias. As ex-Springbok coach Nick Mallett commented on the ignominious end to Warren Gatland’s second term as Wales national coach, reported ‘live’ on Boks Office in February 2025:
“[Wales] have four professional teams and they don’t have enough quality players for four teams. Think about the growth of Scottish [and Irish] rugby. Ireland started with three [sides] but included a fourth once they were up and running.
“Having Glasgow Warriors and Edinburgh and keeping those two tight – 10 internationals in both teams – you’re drawing from the majority of two teams.
“When Australia were strong – remember when Australia won a World Cup [in 1991]? – there was [only] Queensland and New South Wales, they had hardly opened up Canberra. Whoever won the thing had eight, nine guys in the team and the other team had six. And the understanding between the players was so important.
“Wales haven’t got that … it just seems a mess.”
There will be blood. A reduction from four to three will mean the loss of jobs for not only coaches, players and backroom staff, it will affect employment in all the businesses which service the region remotely. At least in the short-term, a pall may be cast over pathways to professionalism for youngsters in the area. The union has a contractual commitment to provide four sides for both the URC and European competition and could incur financial penalties up to £5m if those are not met. There is no revolution without the blood shed to pay for it in full.
As ex-Scarlets and Wales skipper Ken Owens observed: “We must remember the personal element as well – the players, the staff across all four regions that are affected. We need to have a plan for how to move forward, to turn the negatives around in Welsh rugby. Evolution has gone now, we need revolution.”
One of the more pressing logistical problems would occur if the WRU look to amalgamate the two rebel regions based in Llanelli and Swansea. A straightforward merger of the Scarlets and Ospreys would create a huge imbalance in playing power, with the combined West Wales franchise far stronger than the other two based in Cardiff and Newport.
The Scarlets are currently playing the best rugby of any side in Wales, and an upset away win against Leinster in Saturday’s URC quarter-final is well within their compass. Only one month ago, the West Walians beat the perennial table-toppers convincingly at home 35-22, and the Dubliners will be wary of slipping up on another bright-red banana-skin.
The Scarlets developed the plan used by Northampton Saints to beat Leinster in the Champions Cup semi-final further, using their kicking game off scrum-half Gareth Davies – who is injured for the weekend’s duel – to narrow the backfield and keep the coverage between the two 15m lines.
In all three cases, Scarlets are shifting the burden of responsibility back on to Leinster to make the play from the middle of the pitch, and denying them the chances to create turnovers with their blitz defence. The kicks from Davies split the two acting full-backs down the middle and force a negative return punt.
They also set up the use of the cross-kick in attack by persuading those two backfield defenders to honeypot on the ball down the centre of the park.
In both clips, the last defender is well inside the far 15m line when the kick is made and the nearest back-fielder is struggling to make up ground across the width of the pitch. The first outcome is an easy try for wing Tom Rogers and the second is a penalty in prime position close to the goalline.
The Scarlets also had a crystal-clear attacking plan from scrums on the right side of midfield.
The target-space is around the Leinster right wing, who wants to come up hard and early in the Jacques Nienaber defensive system. In the first clip, he is able to mark the wrap-around by Davies, in the second he is caught a step short when the Scarlets adjust, with the ball distributed straight to full-back Blair Murray fading out on an ‘overs’ line and the defensive wing still looking in at Davies.
The Scarlets can give Welsh rugby an important fillip in the short-term by springing a surprise ambush on Leinster. The long-term solution to Welsh provincial woes is likely to begin with a reduction from four to three teams sometime over the next 12 months.
Australia has pulled the rabbit out of the hat by dropping down from five to four, restoring credibility to Super Rugby by recreating a proper competition between clubs from either side of the Tasman once again. Wales can follow suit. The regional evolution of the game since 2003 has failed, now is the time for the red flags of revolution to rise. There is no other way.
It might be pedantic sorry Nick but RA didn’t actually grasp the nettle and cut the Rebels. The Rebels went bankrupt and forced RA into a decision to either bail them out or cast them adrift. They had actually been contracted to participate in Super Rugby Pacific until the end of this season. Now I agree that, presented with this challenge/opportunity, they did the right thing. I am not sure that the Rebels had ever been financially viable but there were lots of people complaining that “shrinking to greatness” wouldn’t work. I think 4 is OK for us in Oz whilst ever we have an interested billionaire tipping in money to support the Force and hopefully that is long enough for the game to grow in that area and for juniors to start coming through in greater numbers. It might be challenged by the entry of a Perth rugby league competition and greater competition for young athletes but hopefully both games can grow. But our numbers are probably still really closer to 3.5 than 4.
Homebound talent numbers wise yes, and that number is low in part because that fourth team isn’t really as interested in players from the eastern shores as the other two teams were.
This would be fine process to have followed to have built a team for SR entry, but it was most definitely the cause of the 5 team failure in my mind. I still believe COVID has set rugby back decades in this region not having twiggies competition up and running.
But, beggars can’t be choosers. Perth are both picking better eastern talent (maybe they’ve had a change of heart/be told theyre the problem) and getting some pay off for their investment in rugby. Lets hope theres market strength all over aussie as that will be needed to both improve retention and create that depth again that existed in 2011/15 period and also trigger a new/re investor in Vic.
Good post Ally. Yes, “shrinking to greatness” is a clever phrase but it's hugely misleading. Plenty of organisations have failed due to overspending in markets that aren't interested in the product, while neglecting the markets that are interested.
Yes I’d agree that three is probably the right number ideally AO.
The two big states really need to take lessons from the Brumbies about how to become consistent and professional and make the most of the material they are given to work with. Right now they don’t.
I’ve heard about the Perth Bears - one of the coaches I work with was tapped up as poss coach for them!
Only New Zealand seemed to have got the balance right, all the way back at the dawn of professionalism. Pure luck. The barometer obviously either side of perfect, but we probably can’t tell which. Always producing championing teams, but other than a purple patch after 2015, always producing dwellers as well, but to their/rugby’s saving grace, with a good to dose of regional representation to give sides/results meaning.
The third Australian team was all about meaning. It meant so much to that group of players that they were given a lifeline from their state where they were unwanted, that they were able to turn themselves into their nations best domestic team in history. That goes to say a huge amount for ensuring player identification and opportunities are available. What is the right balance though? The Highlanders have existed off the same concept, just as the 5th side in that country, so to a far less degree. The Brumbies might have started out to the opposite degree, with no more than half a dozen Canberrans.
What is the balance like in Wales? Do players stay loyal? I’m not sure the Brumbies have ever matched the Highlanders level of sourced locals over decades. I at least still see that as a Capital team, representative of the whole (not even the ‘remainder’) country. There’s a thought that a governing body feel responsible for this team. Is rugby “the love” of even the captial in Wales? I assume Cardiff is also the biggest city and I just wondered if that mean football holds sway. Should WRFU be looking after the URC teams or, really, should they just be custodians of just ensuring one professional team/pathway exists, and the others have their own agreements with URC (whether they’re good enough etc)? This is not being timed to happen along with the new european league, to be an avenue of every team continuing existence?
Super Rugby never really new what it was doing I don’t believe. It was too disconnected being run by each countries national body. It probably should have been a closed shop and attempted to be run like an elite Premier League (/how it started), instead it was run by the whims of whether a union thought it’s teams/player base’s were running that right balance of player identification and opportunity, and were eager to expand when they thought there was (self) opportunity. It is probably a smarter business idea to not have WRU that involved in how the pro scene looks in the country, but their will still be positives in having the heavy hand to make change as well.
The Brumbies are a bit of an enigma. You can’t really see how they continue to exist in future plans (at least not for an ignorant outsider like me!). Taylor last night after the game said they’ll be going back Christchurch “were it will be just as cold for the game next weekend”, the key here in that comment is that it will be for the last time. Dunedin has already had a roofed stadium for a decade, and next year the Crusaders will also be playing under a roof. Canberra really needs to follow suit. I’d love for RA to take over and administer the Brumbies as a “Capital” team that visits other states as well, even take them to Tasmania. Unless Canberra can step up.
Are they a Cardiff?
Cardiff is the very opposite of Canberra JW.
In Wales Cardiff has always been a major rugby-playing hive of activity, amateur and professional - Canberra was created largely from nothing.
And that is the Brumbies strength, they picked up the outliers from the other two states and it has always been their spine - the unwanted, the misfits - to the point where they have by far the most reliable rugby culture in Aussie now.
Cardiff, Swansea and Newport have always been major rugby playing bases in Wales - Llanelli is a small town but you can add it to that list in terms of rugby importance. The problem with regionalisation in Wales is that the ppl who invested in those bases saw the regions as expanded versions of the same - superclubs if you will.
That excluded a huge swathe of clubs in the valleys - Bridgend, Pontypridd, Pontypool etc - and was a major turn-off for grass roots fans. Newport never attempted to become a Gwent representative team for example.
So until you can estbalish identities that are more inclusive, and less identified with those city histories, you will achieve nothing in Wales. Which is pretty much what we’ve done since the Gatland era.
NZ has done well to stick with its five (and probably under significant pressure to increase at times) but I think you could argue that Moana Pasifika is a 6th NZ team (at least to some extent).
I think you make a very good point around the Brumbies. They had a crowd of 8,000 to a game on the weekend that was a virtual final that decided if they would finish top two. The Queensland Reds got 12 - 13K against a potentially entertaining Fiji side that sits well down the bottom of the table and have had a 20K crowd this year. The Tahs have had 20K crowds this year (against the Brumbies).
I think there would be a justification for an indoor stadium given Canberra is the national capital and the Canberra Raiders are proven performers in the NRL. I would have liked them to play a game or two in Melbourne this year and maybe even take on the development of players coming through in Victoria - they have had a few players graduate through to the Wallabies in recent years (and others including the Scottish captain).
He bit then too and should have been caught out be a Davies pass. Really did have their number, should be worth a watch.
Good read thanks Nick. Would be great to see Wales improve. Is there appetite for change at the top? You do mention this but I have felt that Waugh and Herbert have at least acknowledged things aren’t great in Oz and that has helped.
Also an unimportant edit - the Reds won in 2011 not 2001 :) as you say the Brumbies won twice before 2006 and then you are right it has only been 2 more since!!
The poss change to threee clubs suggests there may be - but the WRU has backed down before in these circumstances.
Hi Nick, great article. Agreed the shrinking has strengthened Aus super rugby big time. Any chance you can elaborate on what’s going wrong at the tahs? From the outside it looks like they should be contenders.
I haven’t watched the Tahs since mid-season JA, but will take a look… Their attack looked rather one-dimensional back then and obv did not improve in the absence of JAS.
Great stuff.
“When a forest grows too wild a purging fire is inevitable and natural.”
Plenty of mistakes were made so they’ve plenty to learn from. You’d hope this is as low as it goes for Wales and they can only improve from here. I agree it will take a serious rethink.
The Australian model should be closely studied for it. Plenty of similarities around rugby having once been their national sport to now falling behind. I think Wales too will have lost a lot of kids at the wrong age to other sports in recent times although their U20’s went very well this 6N.
I see it working with the other 2 teams being used as feeders.
My only surprise is just how stubbornly they have hung on to the four-team model for so long IB.
It hasn’t worked since the last great Ospreys side of 2007 - apart from one brief fling with the Scarlets in 2017 - but they just sat on their hands through the failures.
There was never any inkling that four teams would succeed for 15 years or more. Whether it is 2+2 or three regions with one dropped, they need to create some winning cultures.
Thanks for this, Nick. I see the parallels when you paint this picture. The Rebels story isn’t yet fully written of course with the pending legal battle.
The tragedy of the Rebels story is the work that was being done at the amateur level to build a pathway for kids to play rugby as a career. They produced more than a handful of Wallabies and a team full of pro players out of Melbourne. That bit was working. The on field success was even beginning to happen but the financial losses were real and unsustainable. Sad.
From memory Samu, Valentini, Tupouluto, Leota, Canham all came out of Victoria? Yes it did seem like they were building the game at the community level there. Shame there wasn’t another way to go.
I could imagine Melbourne have more rugby players than the ACT.
I agree with that part entirely DM.
Let’s just hope RA don’t blow this opportunity to create stronger, deeper squads out of the mess. There are already some worrying signs at the Force and the Tahs, who need to persuade their WB level personnel not to leave for places where they can win stuff!
A very interesting article, Nick, and very informative on the where Welsh rugby is headed in all probability. I wonder how Geoff Parkes would comment on the first part of the article dealing with the demise of the Rebels. He points out in his book the very big loss of a rugby presence at SR level in a region of Australia with a demographic that has a rugby bias potentially. Similar to W. Sydney.
Just off the top of the head, without doing the research, it would apper the Reds have come out best with the Rebels players they picked up. All of Daugunu, Canham, Lsl and Anderson have been strong performers for the Reds. I would think all could be in the wider WB’s squad. It was thought by many, and I would in all honesty have been one, that the Tehs would also benefit from their Rebels. But they have not. None of Tupou, Leota, Kellaway or Lancaster have, in my view, had standout seasons. That ofc is due to more factors than their personal form.
I am sure that is exactly what Geoff would say Miz. Ultimately it is a question of priority. The priority for Wales and Aussie right now is to create some winning cultures, and that has not been happening with five teams.
So how long do you persist with a failing system? What deadline do you give it to succeed? These questions have been brushed under the carpet.
I acknowledge that valuable pathways and infrastructure has been created in VA and that needs to be supported in any way possible. It wasn’t supported by a region which did not have any winning SR seasons. You go back to the place where you made the first mistake, then correct it.
In future it may be an idea to get VA involved at semi-pro level in the NPC and revive the Rebels brand that way. Why not? Why does it have to be a fully pro franchise?
At least we have the proof of the pudding - it’s been by far the best SRP season in recent times, and much of that is due to better Aussie performances!
Australia shrunk from 5 to 4, SA shrunk from 6 to 4, England went from 13 to 10 and now Wales look likely to go from 4 to 3. These decisions were primarily financial and not purely due to rugby reasons. What does this say about the state of Rugby as a whole? It is very concerning to see the game shrinking before our very eyes. There is even debate albeit light about shrinking to 4 franchises in NZ as it would immediately reduce costs for the loss making NZR although they are more likely in the long run to neuter the loss-making provincial rugby so they can keep pumping money into the cash cow that is the AB’s. Then you have France holding back some of their best players for the tour to NZ which was supposed to be blockbuster because they are resting players. They can afford to do so because their club game is the healthiest and most financially viable in the world. The Currie cup has been neutered significantly and is a black hole which swallows up money and the SA cup wasnt supported at all and has no sponsor. In almost every major nation provincial rugby is suffering and top tier rugby is struggling to make money with the exception of France. So where is the game going? why is it shrinking in traditional strongholds and what are we going to do about it? Maybe we can get an article about that.
Well to start, the game has turned into a technical mess, and a stop start bore for most of the world.
Growing up I had always viewed rugby is a struggling sport internationally, but one which could be saved be the All Blacks. By New Zealand. Obviously naive to who had played beautiful rugby before them, but the intention is what counts. I think the Kiwi brand has started to turn things around but the above two factors are an increasing hindrance.
The problem that New Zealand and South Africa have now, is that those parts of it don’t have meaning anymore. The NPC is not in as much trouble as the CC in having a purpose, but both have been overridden from the top by a focus on international rugby. Here, I feel we wouldn’t even care if a SR team got cut (apart from the one most likely to perhaps) because they are meaningless entities that represent vast swaths of the country that have no familiarity, no connection, no history together. Actually the opposite, they’ve joined rivals.
Now it’s not so bad in SA because at least the URC are likely able to pay for themselves (and that might be because the opposite is true, where the provinces could be the SR/URC team centers, but then hence why CC is unimportant now), but here, it’s not just NPC, the under age competitions, 7s, womens etc, everything, even Super Rugby I’d reckon, is an expense to keep the All Blacks at the top of the sport. How can something thrive with that sort of make up, purpose?
But it is what it is, the CC and NPC etc still need to be there, to be paid for, as it’s part of the pathway. In that respect I don’t think its different to any other sport, whether it baseball where Major League clubs basically pay for the athletes running around in the Minors, or NFL where theres just nothing otherwise. It’s just how the cogs in the wheel have been formed and you don’t necessarily need to look on that negatively. Personally, I would, and therefor I’d change it to remove those negatives, but then theres no guarantee we’d like what it’d become.
It says that rugby as a sport tried to run before it could walk SK!
English club rugby has not managed to break even yet and its clubs are 30m in debt.
Over here rugby is very much a minority sport and Wales has largely switched allegiance to Soccer even in the schools.
France is the one outlier where rugby has ovetaken soccer in popularity, not least with the broadcasters. They can maintain two fully pro tiers and the game is expanding into previously non-rugby areas.
I think the unions and WR needs to grasp the global season nettle to make everything more rational. Otherwise you may as well pin your hope on the club game, as they do across the channel.
Scotland has about twice the population of Wales. At the same ratio of population to top level rugby teams Scotland would have 8 teams, but they only have 2.
Nonetheless, Scotland have more teams in the URC QFs than Wales do (2 vs 1). And Scotland are also far ahead of Wales on the (mens) world rugby rankings (7th vs 12th).
If I were the Wales administrators I would reduce the number of URC teams to two, and see whether the others can continue in a lower budget league of some sort. I suspect you would end up with very competitive URC teams as well as a more coherent national team. And the URC can make up the numbers by inviting teams from Georgia and Spain.
That’s the answer! Find a competition for their level. WRU might have to bite the bullet and make that one of their own teams if they don’t have the power to do it the two private ones though!
I have to correct you though. Wales have an extra half the playing numbers Scotland do. So performances wise they would have 3 of Glasgow/Edinburghs, but I think they would be very comfortable having 4 with some not making the finals cut. Most likely player numbers have diminished to make 3 more sensible.
What is Scotland’s 6Nations record? Grand Slams 0, Championships 0. Wales have 4 Grand Slams and 6 Championships.
Another case of someone being able to see the situation more clearly from the outside there F!
The 2+2 and 3+1 options are there is they want to keep those demographics / pathways alive… I think ultimately they will have to get away from the major city model [Newport-Cardiff-Swansea] in order to minimize the politics, East and West Wales would be fine for example, with maybe North Wales designated as a development region.
Solid scrum angled to desired attacking side, good pass and zippy runner. Set piece making its own reward rather than a milked penalty. Play on!
Good point, we want more of those scrums completed and fewer ending with six blokes’ arms up in the air pleading for a free gift!
Excellent article Nick. Club rugby is a money pit, especially where crowds are low, and the WRU can't afford to throw good money after bad. They'd get more bang from their buck investing in grassroots and pathways while keeping their remaining URC teams well resourced.
Actually I was close to writing I’d prefer no URC, by referring to Super Rugby for New Zealand.
Club rugby isn’t a money pit because it’s needed to develop the players. That a tournament gets treated like this by the whims of a national body just changing strategy is the problem. What is the URC going to do?
The NPC is a money pit in that respect, but I’d prefer it to the money pit of Super Rugby.
Exactly. They’ve tried the current format for about 22 years now [after the demise of the prob the best franchise the Celtic Warriors] and it’s gotten progressively worse. So why not change rather than fiddling while Rome burns?
The problem is that Wales actually prefers politicking to doing stuff.
Merging the best players from Scarlets and Ospreys could see a very quick return to a Welsh team competing at the business end of things, while buying time to build the other two closer to that level. Seems almost too obvious in some ways but ofc the political issues are somewhat tricky to navigate, to say the least!
As for this weekend, don’t be pinning any hopes on scarlets making a semi in Dublin. They’ll be lucky to avoid another Leinster cricket score…
It certainly would be a fantastically handy side Ed :
15. Blair Murray
14.Tom Rogers
13. Joe Roberts/Owen Watkin
12. Keiran Williams
11. Elliot Mee
10. Sam Costelow
9. Gareth Davies
8. Taine Plumtree
7. Justn Tipuric
6. Jac Morgan
5. Vaea Fifita
4. Adam Beard
3. Henry Thomas
2. Dewi Lake
1. Alec Hepburn
But I think it’s more likely the dropped squad would end up being distributed among the other three with as many dual contracts as poss.