LONG READ Force and Waratahs join late Australian finals charge with two rounds to go

With two rounds of Super Rugby Pacific to play, all four Australian teams are still in qualifying contention and that hasn’t happened in a very long time, if ever. Even when there were five Australian teams and eight-team finals formats in play, I cannot recall four Australian teams in the mix this close to the finals series.

But here we are. The Western Force blunting the Queensland Reds minus a few load-managed key players was always on the cards, but the NSW Waratahs going to Fiji and beating the Drua? I don’t know what the bookies were paying, but I can imagine you’ve been paid handsomely if you were so game.

With the Hurricanes and Chiefs seemingly locked into the top two – even more so after both recorded wins  over the weekend – only Moana Pasifika are definitely no longer in the frame. That leaves eight other teams still in the race, and the Round 14 results playing out as they did only complicated things further.

As it stands, the ACT Brumbies – still in fifth after their bye – and the Drua in 10th are separated by just nine points. The Crusaders in fourth and the Highlanders in eighth are separated by just eight, though the Highlanders only have one match left – away to the table-topping Hurricanes.

There’s still so much to play for over the last two weeks, and that’s what made the three Australian performances on the weekend so interesting to observe.

Force still pursuing play-offs goal

A month ago, I argued that the form Australian team at that point was actually the Western Force, and from a pure consistency point of view, they probably still are.

At the time, the Force had beaten Queensland in Brisbane and the Crusaders at home, and were only a missed penalty goal away from beating the Drua in Lautoka. Since then, and following their second bye, they have beaten the NSW Waratahs in Sydney and the Reds in Perth on Saturday, losing the collision and breakdown to the ACT Brumbies in between.

None of the other Australian teams can boast four wins from their last six games.

Back in February, former Wallaby Ben Darwin, co-founder of Gain Line Analytics, told me that of the 11 Super Rugby teams entering the 2026 season, the Force squad boasted the most collective playing experience. That is, they had the most number of games played across all squad members.

Darwin was quick to explain that experience does not necessarily equate to well-oiled combinations and cohesion, but his point was that the Force were a team that could get better as the year went on.

They’re in control of how they finish the season from here and on current form, why couldn’t they win their last two games against the Drua and Waratahs?

That’s exactly what we’ve seen from them. As the combinations and cohesion levels have grown from one game to the next, the Force’s performance has improved too. As we’ve seen over the last month or so, they can beat teams above them on the table as much as the teams around them.

They’re in control of how they finish the season from here and on current form, why couldn’t they win their last two games against the Drua and Waratahs?

At six points behind the Reds in the sixth qualifying spot, they will still need other results to go their way yet and would likely need both the Brumbies (who have NSW away and basement dwellers Moana Pasifika at home) and Reds (away to Moana, home to the Drua) not to win another game. But at the very least, you can have more confidence in the Force holding up their end of the bargain.

Where has that been from the Waratahs?

It must be hard being a Waratahs supporter this season. It might be hard being a Waratahs supporter most seasons, but this year has felt particularly rough.

Just when they get comfortable with the idea that 2027 might be more likely to bring success than 2026, they jump out of the gate and start the year incredibly well. ‘February champions’ stereotypes have never been so easy to apply.

But then the struggles begin, the injuries to key players mount, the performances and form falls off a cliff, selection desperation creeps in and all the reasons for thinking 2027 will be a lot better make a lot of sense.

Then they ran out and scored six tries to lead the Fijian Drua 36-7 at half-time in Suva, a scoreline even friends and family might have struggled to find with all their best supportive intentions. Where on earth did that performance come from, and where has it been all year?

And now the Waratahs have given themselves quite a conundrum. Do they get as many fit bodies back as they can and try and force their way into the play-offs? Or do they back the younger guys that they can build a team around in the future and accept that other results will almost certainly be required for them to play finals football anyway?

If picking and sticking can bring the same outcome as stacking the decks, is there really anything to lose?

How they play out these remaining two rounds – home to Brumbies, away to the Force – will be intriguing to watch. But perhaps not if you’re a Waratahs supporter, who’s seen this movie too many times before.

Queensland’s lineout troubles may be getting worse

It’s a bold strategy to be trying to give off the appearance of a play-offs-bound team without a particularly well-functioning lineout, but that’s the spot the Queensland Reds currently find themselves.

Their 57.1% success rate on Saturday in Perth – winning eight out of 14 on their own throw – was just the latest showing in an increasingly worrying, downward trend for the Reds. Their lineout has averaged just 72.1% success over the last four games since their Round 10 bye, losing at least four lineouts on their own throw in each match.

As we saw from the Force, opposition lineouts know the benefits of contesting more often than not, simply because this might be the one-in-four lineouts they lose. The potential return makes the minimal effort required very much worthwhile.

But identifying the root cause is not so simple. It’s not just about pure throwing skill, because it’s affecting Josh Nasser off the bench as much as starting hooker Matt Faessler, or vice-versa as was the case on Saturday. And it can’t just be the loss of lock Josh Canham either, because he’s been gone a lot longer than just these last few games. But as the chief architect and main caller, his absence is certainly an issue.

What it does mean is that they need to find a lineout strategy that they can make work and not render them a set-piece sitting duck over the remaining weeks of both the regular season and the finals.

Because it won’t just be opposing Super Rugby Pacific teams watching on with interest. With a number of likely Wallabies set-piece cogs currently involved, you can bet that Ireland, France and Italy – Australia’s Nations Championship opponents in July – are studying hard right now as well.