LONG READ England have come for a fight: this is how they can turn the odds on the Springboks

Thank God for Rassie Erasmus. When all others are falling for the hype, the man himself tends to swim against the tide and tell the truth as he sees it. It’s a rare knack and Erasmus cannot help himself, even if it means praising England. While many are licking their lips, and drooling over the prospect of a humiliation of Steve Borthwick’s men at Ellis Park, the Springbok Svengali wisely keeps his own counsel.

Fingers will inevitably point to England’s disappointing fifth place finish in the Six Nations, but Erasmus sees it like it is and knows the real threat England pose to his Springboks. He will ignore the first four games of that tournament and base his view squarely on the last match England played in Paris, on the seven tries and 46 points they scored against champions France. Then he will calmly pin the lessons from it to the wall of the Bokke changing shed at Ellis Park, starkly black and white.

“The England squad is good,” Erasmus said. “I think the average age of that squad is 27, with an average of around 32 caps [apiece]. It’s a young, but experienced squad.

“There are a few old names there, guys who are really experienced like Jamie George, guys in their 30s, 33, 35, and then the average age is only 27. You’ll get youth, and you’ll get a fearless team and two teams who were in the final who really competed well for their Prem.

“Just like us, they are testing players and resting some players like Maro Itoje – we are doing the same with some players by getting them in a little bit later. With the ‘Greatest Rivalry’ [series against New Zealand in August], we’ll get some players in later.

“I guess they’re doing the same there, but we’re not part of the England squad and management. We aren’t sure what they’re thinking, but it’s a very competitive squad and a squad that we obviously know we’re going to have to work really hard next week at Ellis Park to get the win.”

Speaking purely as a rugby man, you get the impression Erasmus heartily approves of the latest iteration of English attitude and selection. Where some cannot wait to see England’s blond back-row influencer Henry Pollock eviscerated by the behemoths in the Bok back five, you cannot help but feel the Northampton tyro is a youngster Erasmus would love to coach.

“Pollock is like Sacha [Feinberg-Mngomezulu],” he said. “People make hype around a player. I don’t always think the players want that hype.

“They just have personalities that are different to others, but what counts is what they do on the field, and Henry certainly does his job on the field, and that’s something we have to contain.

“His personality and how he does things are up to him and the England squad. I guess the guys are used to him like that, and if I were coaching him, I would look only at his output, and his output’s awesome.”

England are spoiling for a fight at Ellis Park and they are unapologetic about it. Gone is the usual mask of English reserve and understatement. No more Captain Titus Oates opening the tent and leaning out into a sub-zero blizzard with a stiff upper lip: “I am just going outside and may be some time.” Pollock lit the tinder last Thursday on social media with a post on Instagram. It read simply ‘See you soon ZA’, with a big drop of blood alongside it. The many replies were good-natured with just the hint of a darker threat in the background: “#PieterStephDuToit is gonna fold you chommie 🇿🇦😂”.

 

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A few decades ago, that would have qualified as a more-or-less polite setting of the cat among the pigeons. Now it is straightforward rage-bait. Ex-Leicester and England scrum-half Ben Youngs was hugging himself in anticipation on the For the Love of Rugby podcast: “I love how [Henry’s] already like, under people’s skin – and how much he already annoys you lot. I hope he has an absolute belter out there.”

The game between South Africa and England could be the match of the round. There are mouth-watering matchups every which way you look up front, with clashes of strength resounding on strength, sword on shield, and iron on iron.

The England starting front row of Ellis Genge, Jamie George and Joe Heyes, which dominated the Six Nations with a class-leading balance of +13 penalties from set-piece, will lock horns with the formidable Springbok unit of Ox Nche, Malcolm Marx and Prem player of the season Thomas du Toit, the top scrum at the 2025 Rugby Championship with +10. There will be no quarter asked or given with that sextet and there will be no Dublin-style capitulation.

Even without skipper Itoje, the three England big men at numbers four, five and six – George Martin, Alex Coles and Ollie Chessum – are primed to dig into the Bokke trio of Eben Etzebeth, Ruan Nortje and Pieter-Steph du Toit. They can hold their own at the lineout and in the physicality of the collisions.

At number eight, there would have been an intriguing contrast in styles between Pollock and Jasper Wiese, had Borthwick opted not to use Pollock’s dynamism from the bench. Wiese is all sob and grunt and claw for that extra metre in the thick of the contact war, but Pollock has quick feet and that touch of light brigade élan shifting to the outside to link with his backline.

The battle of the backs has levelled up significantly in the absence of Feinberg-Mngomezulu. The Leicester-Northampton duo of Jack van Poortvliet and Fin Smith may be more cohesive than Cobus Reinach and Manie Libbok, but South Africa will enjoy a clear advantage in the centres, where they can pair either starter Damian de Allende or sub André Esterhuizen with ever-reliable Jesse Kriel or Blou Bulle gazelle Canan Moodie.

In the absence of Ollie Lawrence and Benhard Janse van Rensburg, England have compensated for a lack of power by shifting Tommy Freeman to 13. Freeman is partnered by Gloucester’s Seb Atkinson, but the selection with a potentially bigger upside would have been that of in-form Chief Henry Slade. Slade can play the same role entrusted to Rory Hutchinson at Franklin’s Gardens, while Freeman understudies Tom Litchfield. Cohesion is the name of the game.

Slotting Freeman into outside centre could have offered Borthwick the added bonus of pairing the most exciting young wing in the country, 6ft 5ins Saracens leaper Noah Caluori, together with the best line-breaker in the Prem, Exeter’s Immanuel Feyi-Waboso. Caluori does make the matchday 23, but connect those two with George Furbank at full-back, and England could assemble most of the pieces of a backline puzzle which can take them all the way to the 2027 Rugby World Cup.

The problem for England is likely to be a huge discrepancy in bench power, and the last 20-30 minutes of a game played at high altitude. South Africa came out of the 2025 Rugby Championship at +25 points differential in the final quarter of games, compared to England’s +3 at this year’s Six Nations. England also lost the second half of their recent warm-up versus France A in Vannes 21-7, and it would have been a complete white-out in the second period but for a last-gasp score by Bath’s Max Ojomoh.

In the absence of Fin Baxter and Will Stuart, England lack the size and nous of the Springbok front-row finishers, where they field Beno Obano and Asher Opoku-Fordjour left and right. A small sample of the scrum issues England could face in the latter stages of the game occurred in Vannes, where the two Bath props packed down against two strong French finishers in the shape of Reda Wardi and Regis Montagne. It was a baptism of fire for young Sela in particular.

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— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) June 29, 2026

Sela gave up four penalties in total at the scrum to Wardi, and on the day he was unable to answer the typically Top 14 questions the La Rochelle veteran posed. Wardi’s set-up showed exactly where he wanted to go thereafter.

Wardi’s hips are out and his left shoulder is well below the height of right, allowing him an easy first step to his left, and a ‘walk’ around the young Bath prop as the scrum develops. Although Wardi and his hooker Barnabé Massa become detached from Montagne as the scrums spins around, it does not matter – the damage has already been done. The same scenario was repeated 12 minutes later.

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— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) June 29, 2026

The final indignity was a penalty against the England feed in the dying embers of the game.

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— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) June 29, 2026

Erasmus has done his due diligence and he already knows that England – Pollock and all – will present the sternest challenge to his charges over the first batch of three games in the inaugural Nations Championship. It may not look like it after England’s dismal 1-4 Six Nations, but the men in white have the tools to trouble the mighty Boks.

The starting Red Rose forwards will come to fight and can be expected to give a good account of themselves. There is ample attacking potential in the backline.

But with the effects of life at altitude and a superstrong South African bench likely to take its toll in the final quarter, England need to be ahead, significantly ahead at the hour mark and have a lead worth defending. Then, there will be no stroll outside, no time for stiff upper lip or casual understatement, it will be backs-to-the-wall desperate against a Springbok bench blizzard – a new Rorke’s Drift.