Springbok Svengali Rassie Erasmus is the best card counter at the black-jack table in the history of professional rugby, bar none, and most of the risks he takes on are carefully weighted to succeed. He plays the hand he is dealt deftly, every card flipped over revealing new information and changing the way he bets on the future. The Nations Championship match against Scotland at Loftus Versveld on Saturday afternoon represented one of his rare miscalculations, and it may yet come back to bite him in ‘The Greatest Rivalry’ tour which kicks off in just over three weeks’ time.
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Rassie’s selections in the first two rounds of the new competition predicted that England would present a more formidable challenge than Scotland. He picked a full-strength matchday squad to take on Steve Borthwick’s charges but selected at least eight players who would typically be outside the top South African 23 in his starting XV to play Gregor Townsend’s men.
It was a reasonable projection but it backfired. South Africa didn’t lose the game but they will have given new All Blacks supremo Dave Rennie and his selector-in-chief Sir Graham Henry invaluable information about how best to take on the Boks in their four-Test series across August and September. Loftus on Saturday was one of the very rare occasions where Rassie leaked more information than he gained from an international game of rugby.
There is now a clear attacking template for the All Blacks to follow and you can bet your bottom dollar Rennie and Henry are already on the case. At the post-match presser in the aftermath of Scotland’s heroic 42-28 loss, Rassie was on the back foot, playing defence. The Saltires had scored four tries in a 10-try extravaganza, and they could have scored a lot more.
“Sometimes we must put our personal goals to one side of how many games you’ve won in a row or even putting winning this championship on the line so that you can know who can do what. If you don’t make those calls you would never know. When do you do it?” Erasmus said.
“Are you always going to do it when you play a team that’s not of this calibre – because I think they are a great team. That’s how you find out…. For those guys [selected for the Springboks] to feel the crowd going quiet when it’s not going so well. That’s the only way we can ever learn.
“I’m not saying this to make our performance sound better – and I don’t want to upset the English – but we thought they [Scotland] were going to be tougher than England. The way they smashed Argentina, the way they beat England, the way they beat France and were playing just four months ago in the Six Nations, we knew it was going to be a really tough game.
If we lose the knives will be out – but for me the most important thing is learning about the players.
“We had 12 guys who each had less than 10 caps – half the team – so we knew cohesion was going to be a problem. I don’t think the crowd was happy at the end, but I think South Africa understands what we tried to do in this game.
“In the past I felt if we made four changes people would ask ‘what are you doing?’ But I feel the interaction between us and the supporters – through the media – gives us a togetherness and people know what we are trying to do. I think that’s something that’s changed over the years.
“If we lose the knives will be out – but for me the most important thing is learning about the players. If we had lost this game, I think there would be some of the crowd who would understand what we tried to do – but luckily, we won.”
Did Erasmus really feel in his water that ‘Scotland were going to be tougher than England’? His selections for the brace of games suggests not, because the starting XV which faced the men in white was far closer to the matchday squad which will stare down the haka for the first Test on 22 August at Ellis Park in Johannesburg. Slot original pick Eben Etzebeth back into the second row and shift the inimitable Pieter-Steph du Toit back to his more familiar role at number seven, and it is probably the team which Erasmus projects to run on versus the most ancient of enemies.
The personnel to play the All Blacks will change, but the defensive system will be much the same. It was in this area that the experimental swaps in the player pool revealed some weaknesses which New Zealand will feel well able to exploit. Why? Let’s look at some of the comparative stats from the first two rounds of the Nations Championship:
Given one or two minor tweaks, Rennie’s New Zealand are currently approaching the game along much the same lines as Scotland. Both emphasize a high active time-of-possession with ball kept firmly in hand, a low percentage of kicks, over 100 rucks built per game and one in every 10 or 11 carries resulting in a line-break. If you can win your own breakdown ball consistently – and it is a big ‘if’ – this is a formula which will cause South Africa trouble in August and September.
In the game at Loftus, Scotland enjoyed eight more minutes of active time-of-possession than the Bokke and they had the lion’s share of possession [64%]. They created 12 line-breaks to South Africa’s six, beat 46 defenders to South Africa’s 21and offloaded 16 times to South Africa’s three. They set 125 rucks and only lost three to turnover in the course of the game. Transpose those stats to a New Zealand team with rather more offensive firepower than Scotland can muster, and the sword of Damocles is already hanging in the air above Rassie’s head.
The Saltires began by showing they had the right attacking shape, and accuracy of passing to beat the Bokke rush out wide:
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) July 13, 2026
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) July 13, 2026
In a typical Springbok rush defence, the last two defenders [10 Handre Pollard and 14 Edwill van der Merwe in the second clip, 13 Jesse Kriel and Van der Merwe in the first] will dive from out-to-in to try and cut off the air supply from the two primary passers [10 Finn Russell and 12 Sione Tuipulotu in the first clip] to the outside. In both cases, the steep alignment of the Scottish backs always looks more likely to make the final pass than the South African D is to prevent it. The outcome is that first Kyle Steyn, then Jamie Dobie, are freed up for runs all the way to the South African 5m line. Now imagine he same picture with Will Jordan or Caleb Clarke or Fehi Fineanganofo on the end of the last delivery.
Scotland also used Tuipulotu effectively to condense the Springbok defence on the inside first before launching their wide attacking phase against an under-manned rush:
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) July 13, 2026
First the man from Frankston, Victoria cuts back with ease past the attempted tackles of the two South African half-backs [Pollard and No.9 Embrose Papier] from a scrum on the left, then another short phase moves the play further into centre-field before Scotland use the same attacking alignment to expose a group of Springbok tight forwards defending near the site of the original set-piece. Now imagine Quinn Tupaea playing the same role as Tuipulotu on first phase, and the Hurricanes’ inside backs running the same shape back to the left thereafter.
The other main worry for Erasmus is the structural chaos which ensued around the ruck when his finishing forwards came off the bench for the final 20 minutes of the game. New Zealand forwards have always excelled at the tip-on pass at the line, and this one simple expedient caused South Africa endless anguish in the final quarter:
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) July 13, 2026
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) July 13, 2026
Whether it is Ruan Nortje, PSDT and Ntuthuko Mchunu in the first clip, or Mchunu, Jan-Hendrik Wessels and Du Toit in the second, that block of first four forwards out from the breakdown is being broken far too easily for comfort. Problems which started straight up the middle, continued in the same area after the first line of defence had been broken:
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) July 13, 2026
In this instance it is the fragile link between Elrigh Louw and Vincent Tshituka which is snapped like a dry twig by the tip-on pass, but the lack of organisation which follows the break has to be seen to be believed. First Louw misses a simple one-on-one tackle on the following phase, then Scotland scrum-half Ben White and Bath utility forward Josh Bayliss exploit a yawning vacancy between them at the right-hand ‘guard’ spot on the very next play. Whatever is said publicly, in private Rassie would be grinding his teeth at the logjam of defensive errors. It was one mistake piled upon another.
The defensive review which followed South Africa’s 42-28 win over Scotland at Loftus Versveld would have resembled the Spanish Inquisition. It would have been long, painful, and it would have given highly-experienced veterans and newbies alike some very public bloody noses indeed. It may not have made for pretty reading in South Africa but it would have woken up a host of sharp attacking minds in New Zealand. Rassie beware: Dave Rennie and Sir Graham Henry are smelling blood in the water.
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I'm confused Nick. It was my understanding that Henry was being appointed as a selector only and that he would not be accompanying the ABs on tour.
Have I got it wrong because the tone of this article suggests that he is almost a co-coach to Rennie.
No !
It was SA thirds !
Scotland have some very strong ball carriers across the forwards and backs. It is something I really notice when they play the Wallabies. I think in this area Scotland actually did better then most against SA. The ABs have the physicality but I am not sure NZ can keep that level of physicality up across multiple games against SA. But NZ are clearly fast and can move the ball better then Scotland can. It is going to be interesting to see what DR ABs do…I expect he will take them on up front then trigger out the back plays. But it is hard to know with these teams. Lots of tactical surprises from SA is always on the cards. I guess the game will come down to the old proven game management of who can play the game in the right part of the field. SA might still have the edge with this.
Have I missed something here? The two big takes from the last weekend for me are 1. The four top NH teams all lost. The two top SH teams didn’t.
2. Defence still wins more games than attack. The teams which had the least tries scored against then - sort of 😆 won.
I said this in another article Nick. When you also consider Mike Blair is very familiar with the Scottish players and how they attack, this game by the Scot’s could be a blueprint.
If not, it is at the very least a beacon of hope us kiwis needed 😅
Yes the Mike Blair connection is an interesting one Toko, esp as he started coaching most of the current Soctland players under Rennie at Glasgow!
Morning NB - very late to the party on this article but I would say two things about this theory;
1) Scotland have better back line attacking capability than people give them credit for.
2) South Africa look fragile in defence when DDA doesn’t play - he is the glue that holds it all together.
Rennie’s AB;s look closer to the RWC 2023 vintage that how Razor’s AB’s played, even though its many of the same players in the wider matchday squad and will be an interesting prospect to see how quickly they develop compared to the worlds best.
Scotland do have an excellent backline, but they were shorn of Darcy Graham, Blair Kinghorn, Duhan Van der Merwe and Huw Jones for this game - plus Staff McDowall [who rate highly] did not start. So there were fair few parts missing.
And as I said elesewhere, you would not expect such big holes to develop with Kriel and PSDT on the pitch.
The one thing in favour of the ABs is that they always arrived prepared for the altitude effect
Nope. Not with this D Boks team. Towards the end the Boks forwards were out on their feet. The starters are much fitter ….
So you’re saying the fitness standards in the Bok squad are inconsistent?