Why the Chiefs' season hangs in the balance as they prepare to face off against the ruthless Crusaders
While taking out the Super Rugby Aotearoa title with just six wins from eight matches is entirely possible, doing so with just five victories under the belt seems unlikely at best. That means the Chiefs face the very real threat of being eliminated from title-contention this weekend if they can’t turn things around against the Crusaders.
Warren Gatland’s tenure with the Chiefs started so promisingly. The Waikato men went unbeaten in their first three matches, where they picked up especially important wins against the Blues and the Crusaders. By the time the competition was called off due to the global pandemic, the Chiefs were sitting on fifth place on the table with four victories from six games.
While losses at home to the Brumbies and the Hurricanes left Gatland with a few fix-ons, expectations around the country were that the Chiefs would enter the New Zealand-only edition of the competition as the biggest roadblock to the Crusaders nailing a fourth title on the bounce.
We’re now two weeks into Super Rugby Aotearoa and the public perception of the Chiefs will have shifted markedly.
The Crusaders looked lethal against the Hurricanes in their only run-out so far while the Blues have done the deed against the Hurricanes in Auckland and now the Chiefs in Hamilton.
The Chiefs also lost their first-up match against the Highlanders in Dunedin, which leaves them second bottom on the ladder – just a point ahead of the Hurricanes.
With new rules and interpretations coming into play in the new competition, there’s probably been a larger amount of luck involved in the two rounds to date than what you’d normally see in Super Rugby. Referees, players and coaches are all still coming to terms with the severity that the breakdown has been officiated and the consistency is understandably still not quite there.
That’s no excuse for the Chiefs’ losses, however. The Crusaders only had their first taste of Aotearoa action over the weekend and while they were certainly on the losing side of the penalty count, their class shone through and they scored 5 tries over the 80 minutes on a wet and windy Wellington day.
By comparison, the Chiefs have managed just two tries over their two matches, with both being scored under the roof against the Highlanders.
Unlike at the start of the year, the Chiefs have also had all of their All Blacks on unrestricted minutes.
Unfortunately, as with seasons gone by, the Gatland-coached side have rarely had a full contingent to pull from.
Nathan Harris was ruled out for the year prior to Super Rugby’s initial kick-off in January (and fellow hooker Liam Polwart retired due to concussion) while Atu Moli, Mitchell Brown, Michael Allardice and now Luke Jacobson have all been invalided for the rest of the season. Angus Ta’avao also hasn’t featured since the opening game of the campaign while Sam Cane seems to be touch and go every week and Brodie Retallick is on sabbatical.
That’s an exceptional amount of experience that the Chiefs have to manage without and while any side would struggle given the circumstances, that doesn’t let Gatland off the hook entirely.
Even before the break, when the Chiefs were winning matches, things weren’t exactly going entirely smoothly.
Of the four matches they won, the Chiefs had to overcome sizeable deficits at halftime in two of those games – against the Blues and the Crusaders. It was really only against the Waratahs and the Sunwolves – two sides that managed a solitary win each, that the Chiefs were in control for the majority of the match.
Regardless, the wins were at least coming – which can’t be said for the last two matches the Waikato men have played.
That doesn’t mean it’s time to freak out, of course.
One of the worst-performing areas for the Chiefs has been the lineout. That’s almost unavoidable, given that they’ve been shorn of their first-choice hooker as well as Brodie Retallick (on sabbatical), Allardice, Brown and Tyler Ardron.
Samison Taukei’aho has suddenly been thrust into the starting role for the Chiefs in 2020, despite being just 22 years old. By contrast, 29-year-old Codie Taylor is the only other hooker to have started a Super Rugby Aotearoa match who is hasn’t yet hit 30.
Factor in that the Chiefs are now running with a pair of 20-year-old locks, and it’s easy to see why they’re only operating with an 81% lineout success rate.
The bigger concern for Gatland will be the breakdown, where the Chiefs seem to have struggled to adapt to the new rules and have failed to build any momentum throughout their two matches or put their opposition under pressure.
Sunday’s match with the Crusaders will likely make or break the Chiefs season. If they can do the impossible and pick up a win in Christchurch (which no New Zealand team has achieved since 2016) then many of the mistakes of the last two weeks will be forgiven – though they could still come back to haunt the Chiefs later in the season.
If, on the other hand, the Chiefs fall to their third loss of the season, then it’s almost impossible to envisage any scenario except for a disappointing 2020.
No doubt, Aaron Cruden and Damian McKenzie will be the key figures over the weekend but the Chiefs will also be hoping for improved performances from Brad Weber and Anton Lienert-Brown, who’ve been uncharacteristically subdued over the past two weeks.
In the forwards, the possible returns of Cane and Brown will do wonders for the young pack’s confidence but Gatland will still be hoping for greater accuracy from his young prodigy hooker.
The Crusaders have a few injury problems of their own with captain Scott Barrett ruled out for the season and Braydon Ennor and Tom Christie still touch-and-go, but they’ll still be able to field a side oozing with confidence.
Saturday’s match-up between two unbeaten sides in the Blues and the Highlanders may technically showcase teams with better records, but given everything that’s riding on Sunday’s match for the Chiefs, it could well turn into another instant Crusaders/Chiefs classic.
Comments on RugbyPass
A wallaby front-row of Bell, Blake and Tupou…now that would be hefty
1 Go to comments“But with an exceptional pass accuracy rating “ Which apart from Roigard is not a feature of any of the other 9s in NZ. Kind of basic for a Black 9 dont.you. think? Yet we keep seeing FC and TJ being rated ahead of him? Weird if it’s seen as vital to get our backline beating in your face defences.
1 Go to commentsThanks BeeMc! Looks like many teams need extra time to settle from the quadrennial northern migration. I think generally the quality of the Rugby has held up. Fiji has been fantastic and fun to watch
13 Go to commentsLets compare apples with apples. Lyon sent weak team the week before, but nobody raised an eyebrow. Give the South African teams a few years to build their depth, then you will be moaning that the teams are too strong.
41 Go to commentsDid footballs agents also perform the scout role at some time? I’m surprised more high profile players haven’t taken up the occupation, great way to remain in the game and use all that experience without really requiring a lot of specific expertise?
1 Go to commentsSuper rugby is struggling but that has little to do with sabbaticals. 1. Too many teams from Aust and NZ - should be 3 and 4 respectively, add in 2 from Japan, 1 possibly 2 from Argentina. 2. Inconsistent and poor refereeing, admittedly not restricted to Super rugby. Only one team was reffed at the breakdown in Reds v H’Landers match. Scrum penalty awarded in Canes v Drua when No 8 had the ball in the open with little defence nearby - ideal opportunity to play advantage. Coming back to Reds match - same scrum situation but ref played advantage - Landers made 10 yards and were penalised at the breakdown when the ref should have returned to scrum penalty. 3. Marketing is weak and losing ground to AFL and NRL. Playing 2 days compared with 4. 4. Scheduling is unattractive to family attendance. Have any franchises heard of Sundays 2pm?
11 Go to commentsAbsolutely..all they need is a chance in yhe playoffs and I bet all the other teams will be nervous…THEY KNOW HOW TO WIN IM THE PLAYOFFS..
2 Go to commentsI really hope he comes back and helps out with some coaching.
1 Go to commentsI think we are all just hoping that the Olympic 7s doesn’t suffer the same sad fate as the last RWC with the officials ruining the spectacle.
1 Go to commentsPersonally, I’ve lost the will to even be bothered about the RFU, the structure, the participants. It’s all a sham. I now simply enjoy getting a group of friends together to go and watch a few games a year in different locations (including Europe, the championship, etc). I feel extremely sorry for the real fans of these clubs who are constantly ignored by the RFU and other administrators. I feel especially sorry for the fans of clubs in the Championship who have had considerable central funding stripped away and are then expected to just take whatever the RFU put to them. Its all a sham, especially if the failed clubs are allowed to return.
10 Go to commentsI’m guessing Carl Hayman would have preferred to have stayed in NZ with benefit of hindsight. Up north there is the expectation to play twice as many games with far less ‘player management’ protocols that Paul is now criticising. Less playing through concussions means longer, healthier, careers. Carter used as the eg here by Paul, his sabbatical allowed him to play until age 37. OK its not an exact science but there is far more expectations on players who sign for Top 14 or Engl Prem clubs to get value for the huge salaries. NZR get alot wrong but keeping their best players in NZ rugby is not one of them. SA clubs are virtually devoid of their top players now, no thanks. They cant threaten the big teams in the Champions Cup, the squads have little depth. Cant see Canes/Chiefs struggling. Super has been great this year, fantastic high skill matches. Drua a fantastic addition and Jaguares will add another quality team eventually. Aus teams performing strongly and no doubt will benefit with the incentive of a Lions tour and a home RWC. Let Jordie enjoy his time with Leinster, it will allow the opportunity for another player to emerge at Canes in his absence.
11 Go to commentsLove that man, his way to despise angry little men is so funny ! 😂
4 Go to comments“South African franchises would be powerhouses if we had all our overseas based players back in situ. We would have the same unbeatable aura the Toulouses, Leinsters or Saracens of this world have had over the last decade or so.” Proof that Jake white does not understand the economics of the game in SA. Players earning abroad are not going to simply come back and represent the bulls. But they might if they have a springbok contract.
24 Go to commentsA lot of fans just joined in for the fun of it! We all admire O'Gara and what he has done for La Rochelle
4 Go to commentsThe RFU will find a way to mess this up as usual. My bet is there will be no promotion into the the Premiership, only relegation into National League One. Hopefully they won’t parachute failed clubs into the league at the expense of clubs who have battled for promotion.
10 Go to commentsWell that’s the contracts for RG and Jordie bought and paid for. Now, what are the chances we can persuade Antoine to hop over with all the extra dosh we’ll have from living at the Aviva & Croke next season…??? 🤑🤑🤑
35 Go to commentsWow, that’s incredible. Great for rugby.
35 Go to commentsYou probably read that parling is going to coach the wallaby lineout but if not before now you have.
17 Go to commentsIf someone like Leo Cullen was in O’Gara’s place I don’t hear Boo-ing. It’s not just that La Rochelle has hurt Leinster and O’Gara is their Irish boss. It’s the needle that he brings and the pantomime activity before the game around pretending that Munster were supporting LaRochelle just because O’Gara is from Cork. That’s dividing Irish provinces just to get an advantage for his French Team. He can F*ck right off with that. BOOOOO! (but not while someone is lying injured)
4 Go to commentsDid the highlanders party too hard before the game? They were the pits.
1 Go to comments