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Why the Tri Nations is now Argentina's to lose
Los Pumas made history on Saturday in Sydney, becoming just the sixth nation to beat the All Blacks, winning 25-15.
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The impact of COVID-19 and a lack of game time saw Argentina go into the test as ranked outsiders, having not played an international in 402 days.
Even though the All Blacks were coming off a two-point loss to Australia the week before, seeing that they hadn’t previously lost two games in a row in nearly a decade, everything was pointing towards a comfortable victory for the men in black.
Both teams traded penalties inside 12 minutes but from then on, it was the underdogs who took control.
The Pumas defence was solid throughout the 80 minutes, with captain Pablo Matera leading by example. But the standout player from the fixture was without a doubt flyhalf Nicolas Sanchez, who scored all 25-points for his side.
Congratulations to Argentina on their first every victory over the All Blacks. Emotions are running high ? #NZLvARG FULL TIME 25 -15 pic.twitter.com/p6pSDPraD9
— Sky Sport NZ (@skysportnz) November 14, 2020
While there’s still plenty of rugby to be played, that’s true, the win over the All Blacks has well and truly opened up the Tri Nations. The result puts Argentina in uncharted waters; now just one win away from leading the standings, and they’re already in a good position to win it all.
In fact, in many ways, the Tri Nations is Argentina’s to lose.
Here’s where each team stands.
Argentina
For some reason, Argentina have always been treated as if they’re a tier two nation playing in a tier-one competition, that being the Rugby Championship (or Tri Nations this year). It was as if they were included just to make up the numbers.
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Nobody seriously considered them as genuine title contenders before Saturday, and even after, most would still have doubts.
On Sky Sport NZ’s show The Breakdown, All Blacks legend Sir John Kirwan joked about the “mitigating circumstances” that the Pumas have faced, as he outlined exactly why he thought the All Blacks would win the test comfortably, even if they had opted for a weakened side.
But instead they didn’t just beat the All Blacks, they dominated their opponents.
Over the last 15 years, Los Pumas have constantly been improving, and building towards notable wins like we saw on Saturday.
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They really announced themselves as a potential force in World Rugby at the 2007 Rugby World Cup, when, against the odds, they managed to place third after a convincing 34-10 victory over hosts France in the bronze final.
Four years later, they lost to New Zealand in the quarter-finals, before joining the Rugby Championship the next year. While results didn’t come right away, they peaked perfectly in time for the 2015 World Cup, making it to the semi-finals for the second time.
The inclusion of the Jaguares in Super Rugby has also improved developmental pathways for up-and-coming talent within Argentinian rugby. After a slow first few years, they reached the final in last year’s Super Rugby competition, where they lost to the Crusaders in Christchurch.
The point is, Argentinian rugby has come a long way and has improved drastically over the past decade or so. The win over the All Blacks was always going to happen eventually.
But the challenge that the Pumas face coming off the win is making sure that they can back up playing the game of their lives with regular performances like that. A win against the All Blacks would’ve always have been targeted but to perform like that again in this tournament will be tough to do.
But on their day, they’ve proven that they can match it with the best.
If they can record another convincing win this weekend, then the Tri Nations would very much be theirs for the taking.
Australia
It’s not too farfetched to suggest that the Pumas next test in the Tri Nations will determine if they’re contenders or pretenders for the title. Proving doubters wrong against the All Blacks was impressive but backing it up is what they need – consistency is key.
Up next for the South American outfit is the Wallabies in Newcastle, a side they beat 23-19 two years ago on the Gold Coast.
The Wallabies have won one from two so far, going down 43-5 to the All Blacks in Sydney before bouncing back in Brisbane. But with a points-difference that’s significantly worse than the All Blacks, and without any bonus points while the All Blacks have two, they need a win this weekend.
They can’t afford to drop either of their final two tests which are both against the Pumas.
To beat their increasingly confident opponents though, the Wallabies need to find a way to expose weaknesses in the Argentinian defence, which was a brick wall last weekend. Utility Reece Hodge admitted on Sunday that players in the Australian squad were impressed with the Pumas defensive performance.
“They didn’t give the All Blacks an inch,” Hodge said.
Wallabies players were particularly impressed with the Pumas defensive performance against the All Blacks. #AUSvARGhttps://t.co/Yezpcv1ESd
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) November 15, 2020
“It’s one thing to do it against Australia A and another to do it against the All Blacks.
“They have obviously been training very hard and had that game circled for a long time and they were pretty clinical and played with a lot of passion and a lot of skill.
“We had a BBQ last night after a big training day and a few of the boys were discussing how tough a challenge they are going to be.”
But the Pumas should rate their chances ahead of the test in Newcastle, obviously after beating the All Blacks, but also because of their performances against “Australia A” as Hodge mentioned.
The Pumas played two matches against a Rugby Australia XV to warm up for the All Blacks and Wallabies. That side was made up of non-matchday squad members, with the likes of Pete Samu, Fraser McReight and Joe Powell featuring.
Argentina won both matches convincingly.
The visitors aren’t favourites going into Saturday’s match, but it shouldn’t be a surprise if they register another win. They’re prepared well despite challenges, beaten strong opposition, and could claim Tri Nations favouritism if they win this week – as would their opponents to be fair.
For both the Wallabies and the Pumas, this is a must-win – effectively, it’s a quasi-knockout match.
New Zealand
Even though they came into the competition as favourites, the All Blacks hopes of winning this year’s Tri Nations have begun to fade after a one from three start.
Former All Blacks coach John Hart has defended Ian Foster, instead saying that players need to have “a really hard look at themselves.” #NZLvARG https://t.co/XBlsLxN1kf
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) November 16, 2020
But to contest for the title, they’ll need results to go their way – it’s largely out of their control. They have a bye this week, but one win apiece for Argentina and Australia against each other would go a long way to bringing the All Blacks back into the fight.
To be any chance though, they also have to beat the Pumas when they meet again on the 28th. It’s a match that they’ll be expected to win; three losses in a row couldn’t happen, could it?
They’ll be hungry for revenge and that’s something that Argentina will be weary of.
The All Blacks just have to sit and wait though, with the title set to come down to a decider on the last day, but only if they win their last test of the year.
Comments on RugbyPass
Hey. Stay home and play for Mooloo.
1 Go to commentsTighthead was always going to be our weakness this year with Ryan going home to Ireland and the Cashed Up Blues taking a third All Black prop from us - nobody else in SR does that. Numia is the exciting one. He used to be a lightweight but he's really improved. Do you have stats on the All Black hookers’ lineouts for the game? I seem to remember a few misses.
2 Go to commentsFergus Burke isn't tier 1 player quality…but guess what, he'll be playing amongst them for Saracens…. all going well and Steve Borthwick is still the head coach, England...Scott Robertson’s hint of amending NZRU’s offshore AB eligibility clause, would mean that players like Josh Moorby who show potential might get a call…
4 Go to commentsThe movement of quality players back to SA is remarkable.
2 Go to commentsInteresting article, Nic. Am enjoying seeing the Rebels doing well, partly just to spite those who are working to wipe them off the face of the Australian rugby planet. But it is also good to see a team with somany good players beginning fire. LSL has benefitted so much from his move up to Northampton for the one year. I wonder why he did not stay on for another year. Does he now looks north and see his teammates of last year now doing so well, and have some regrets.
44 Go to comments“Over 80% of the World Cup squad are over 30” No it isn’t lol
2 Go to commentsTyrel Lomax the best AB prop since Carl Hayman. Absolutely destroyed the Boks in RWC Final and is monstering allcomers in Super this season. Should be a monster battle vs touring Poms, always deliver a power pack.
2 Go to commentsEye gouging seems like such a strong term for what can only be described as a poke in the eye. When I think of eye gouging I think of someone trying to intentionally pop someone’s eyeball out. it’s like calling a high-tackle attempted decapitation.
3 Go to commentsGreat article. No insights to add, just wanted to say that. :)
1 Go to commentsLeinster are going to win the world cup.
13 Go to commentsSuper Rugby desperately needs to lose at least 2, but up to 4 teams. Rebels quietly going bankrupt would have made that a bit easier. Teams like the Rebels and Force serve only to weaken Australian Rugby and Super Rugby more widely. In 13 years in the comp the Rebels are yet to win more games than they lose in a season, have never finished in the top half of the competition, and have come dead last a number of times. The Western Force, barring a brief stint of mediocrity under John Mitchell from 2007-2009 have been even worse. Sadly it’s hard to see a future for Moana Pasifika in Super Rugby. Likewise I think the writing is on the wall for the Highlanders, it’s hard to see how NZ rugby can continue to support 5 SR teams, and population distribution suggests one team in the south island would make the most sense.
44 Go to commentsNice that Connor Evans is happy to stay on here, that JD Schikerling is returning and Steven Kitshoff. Dobbo is careful to bring back just anybody but having a new financial lease of life, it has made the Stormers a more attractive club. On top of being good quality, having the financial backing helps a lot
1 Go to commentsEngland-qualified too, I believe.
1 Go to commentsThis might turn out to be emblematic of a real issue in Irish rugby. Ireland have one of the best -if not the best - senior sides in the world, and one of the best under 20s sides as well, but don’t seem to be giving graduating under20s players many opportunities to break through into URC starting lineups. There is a risk that a lot of the junior talent they are developing will either be wasted, or lost to other nations.
1 Go to commentsYou ask good questions, Nick. The group who have put together the proposal to play out of Tarneit and participate in the growing of the ground’s capacity are not a bunch of white knights who have been dragged in post-crisis; they were around whilst the Rebels accummulated $23m in debt. Why do we come up with ideas that might make the franchise affordable after it’s broke and not when it might have prevented the trainwreck this offseason was? As for Gordon/Kellaway v Lolesio/Wright, they are both good options. I think the former are better rugby players but the goal kicking of Noah may be decisive when Schmiddy makes his choices. I know Harry Jones has the hots for Edmed but I think it’s one of his few poor choices and he and Jorgensen aren’t close to the other pairs. By coincidence, the wife and I went into town over the weekend to watch Brian Cox and Patricia Clarkson in Long Day’s Journey into Night. Beautifully acted but it was 3.5 hours in the chair and very hard work. Like the Rebels, there were only small bursts of joy to go with a lot of bad news and a depressing story line. In the end, I was hoping it would end and I could give my sore butt a break. Again, familiar.
44 Go to commentsGood decision, very good player but not international quality. But so was Jamison Gibson Park …..
4 Go to commentsLoose forwards always look good going forward and winning. It’s the same loose forwards for the Crusaders and the Canes this year as last year. Too much of the shiny new things getting noticed here while older consistent ones getting bagged. It’s early days. Calm the farm.
8 Go to commentsThanks Nick, and on the money. We tend to be apathetic until something REALLY BAD happens, then we aren't! At least this applies to the Reb players and coach, if not the spectators. They seem to be getting very quick ball at times. Have they altered something, or is it just all of the skills coming together at the right time? It seems almost the opposite of the Reds, who started the season with quick ball, but haven't been showing that in the last 3 losing games. Is it attitude (McDermott hasn't looked “right” to me for 3 weeks), or something else?
44 Go to commentsGood summary. As said, Sevu Reece has been electrifying for the Crusaders. Great try and he has been everywhere. Amazing he is now equal with Caleb Ralph , club record of 52 tries for the Crusaders. That record beckons. Good to see Dallas McLeod getting regular starts at last. A big few weeks are ahead.
8 Go to commentsGood article/interview.As was said Christian Lio-Willie was barnstorming when he came on for the Crusaders. What happened at the end, self-explanatory.Captain fantastic Scott Barrett is due back soon as well, once they are back from Aussie. Great to see Ethan Blackadder back last week.
1 Go to comments