Why the Perth Bledisloe will be different

In one fell swoop, the All Blacks have retained the Bledisloe Cup for the 23rd consecutive year, and the Eden Park drought remains intact, after the Wallabies failed to execute in Auckland over the weekend.

The teams now head to Perth, where a sold-out stadium awaits them, where the Wallabies will be out for blood after losing their grip on the top of the Rugby Championship ladder.

The Wallabies must win with a bonus point and hope Argentina beat South Africa without ceding any bonus points, if they are to have any chance of hoisting the cup.

However, rather than worrying about competition machinations, the Wallabies must be solely focused on themselves, because their performance at Eden Park was far from perfect, and a Bledisloe clash demands perfection from the Wallabies.

The Wallabies must be blunt in their review of the match; an 84 per cent tackle success rate with 40 misses to the All Blacks’ 11, and 15 penalties make for sour revision.

Likewise, veteran fly-half James O’Connor missing touch twice from penalty kicks and a kick-off out on the full are inexcusable mistakes at Test level, but these misplays mean the 57 per cent territory and the 59 per cent possession stats are erroneous numbers.

If anything, the Wallabies can be buoyed, knowing that had these huge mistakes not occurred, they have the skillset and game plan to heap pressure on the All Blacks.

And herein lies the first reason as to why this week’s Perth Test will be entirely different from the game in Auckland.

Possession alone is not an indicator of anything, nor is territory, but house these two stats in the context of this match and it begins to outline what the Wallabies can achieve at Optus Stadium.

The Wallabies scored two of their three tries from lineout-maul drives in the All Blacks’ 22m.

The Wallabies would’ve spoken about this throughout the week, about how they could trust their maul to overpower the All Blacks’, that much is clear from the game tape.

So, in hindsight, it’s not surprising that O’Connor tried so aggressively to nail his kicks deep into the All Blacks’ 22m.

Rugby Championship

P

W

L

D

PF

PA

PD

BP T

BP-7

BP

Total

1

South Africa

5

3

2

0

15

2

New Zealand

5

3

2

0

14

3

Australia

5

2

3

0

11

4

Argentina

5

2

3

0

9

Nevertheless, it must be highlighted once again just how damaging it was for the Wallabies that he did miss touch.

The second missed kick for touch in the 52nd minute results in a counterattack from the All Blacks, with the Kiwis getting a penalty just outside the Wallabies’ 22m line, which allowed Damien McKenzie to kick a penalty, changing the score from 23-17 to 26-17, a big difference in the scheme of things.

This point is all to say, the Wallabies, if given a set piece in the All Blacks’ 22m, are likely to score points. Scott Robertson and his team will review that this week, and discipline will be key for the All blacks anywhere near their own half, because O’Connor will not make his mistakes again.

This pressure point is even more apparent if one looks at the 22m entry efficiency; the All Blacks had nine entries into the Wallabies’ 22m zone, scoring an average of three points per entry.

Meanwhile, the Wallabies had six entries, scoring four points per entry, which will not be lost on the Wallabies and coach Schmidt either.

The second factor that will change the dynamic of the Perth Test is selections.

The Wallabies are welcoming back two of their most confrontational and heavy-hitting forwards, second-rower Will Skelton and John Eales medallist Rob Valetini. These two players alone are game-changing.

The addition of Skelton will only aid in anchoring an already strong Wallabies scrum and spur a dominant Wallabies maul on. When Skelton is on the field, the All Blacks will hesitate about kicking a ball into touch, as Skelton is the best player on the planet at blowing up opposition’s mauls.

The addition of Valetini means the Wallabies gain their best ball running forward by some margin. His power in attack means he will not only eat up metres and make the gainline, but also attract more All Black defenders.

The final inclusion of note is likely to be experienced halfback Jake Gordon, with veteran Nic White now seemingly retired and only with the Wallabies in a mentoring role.

The kicking game is something that suffered at the weekend with McDermott starting, because so often when the Wallabies appeared to be stalled in their attacks, McDermott never looked to put a piercing flat kick through, like White has done on so many occasions; rather, he always went to the air, even when the All Blacks were perfectly set to deal with it.

The selection of Gordon and the retention of newly debuted Ryan Lonergan will mean that, for the first time this year, the Wallabies will have halfbacks on for the full 80 minutes who have complete skill sets.

Gordon’s experience alongside an O’Connor will also aid in managing the tougher periods of the game, which are certain to be many.

Now, having these players back is great, but how coach Joe Schmidt decides to use them will be crucial and interesting to see.

The Wallabies have had slower starts than their opposition throughout the TRC, and not since the Wallabies’ second and third British and Irish Lions Tests in Melbourne and Sydney have the Wallabies truly outscored an opposition in the first half.

Skelton was part of both of those efforts, Valetini was part of the first 40 in Melbourne, and Gordon was there for the Melbourne Test until around the 60-minute mark.

They are all clearly impactful players, but Schmidt must be shrewd with how he involves the forwards, because Gordon’s complete game and experience will be needed from the outset.

A factor to consider is the makeup of the pack, especially as on the weekend, the Wallabies were ineffective in disrupting the All Blacks’ lineout.

Captain Harry Wilson was often the player competing against the All Blacks’ Tupou Vaa’i, Fabbian Holland, and Simon Parker; those are all mismatches.

Adding Skelton to this mix from the outset, and possibly Valetini on the flank in the No.6 jersey, would further limit the lineout options in attack as well as defence.

Tom Hooper is likely the player to be moved to the bench for Valetini should Schmidt start him, but in Auckland, Hooper was accurate in defence, making 14/15 tackles, and made the most carries, 13, of any Wallaby for the most amount of metres of any Wallaby forward, 36.

His height of 199cm, his weight of 122kg, is not something you want to sacrifice when his form has been so good for so long, and this means someone else must cede their position.

Captain Wilson made 12 carries for 26 metres, with 15/19 tackles. He was also the most penalised Wallaby on the day with three penalties; now, rightly or wrongly, those penalties hurt the Wallabies.

Seeing as Schmidt has not named Wilson the permanent captain, and as he seemingly goes off form, he must now decide whether Wilson’s form has been good enough to keep Valetini out, because one should be on the bench and the other must start; tough decisions lie ahead.

The optics of this also mean that should Skelton start, and Hooper retained on the flank, the Wallabies would still have two genuine lineout options rather than one, with Nick Frost likely to start in the row as well.

This being said, the Wallabies’ poor territory management and ill discipline are what allowed the All Blacks to charge ahead with a strong lead in the first half, and it isn’t directly about the players who started.

Tighthead lock Lukhan Salakaia-Loto was a powerful ball carrier who proved a handful for the All Blacks, making nine carries for 22 metres, often attracting multiple defenders and making 8/8 tackles.

His mobility, skill, and lineout prowess should see him at the very least retained on the bench to bring impact and power off the pine, should Schmidt retain Hooper in the starting back row, and start Skelton.

The Wallabies were in the contest for the entire 80 minutes at Eden Park, despite tackling at their lowest percentage, getting the most penalties in the entire campaign, and ceding possession and territory like missing touch on a few occasions.

Knowing they are truly capable of mixing it with this All Blacks side at their fortress, knowing they left a lot to be desired out on the pitch, and having two key players returning to the fold means that this Wallabies side has everything it needs to reshape how the Perth Test will go down.

The Wallabies are now a good enough team, with world-class players and staff, to rectify the mistakes from Auckland and give the opportunity to hoist the Rugby Championship a genuine crack this weekend in front of a sellout crowd in Perth.