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Why the All Blacks will find the Springboks ‘hellishly hard to beat’

Eben Etzebeth of the Springboks holds the Nelson Mandela Plate aloft after winning the The Rugby Championship match between Australia Wallabies and South Africa Springboks at Optus Stadium on August 17, 2024 in Perth, Australia. (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)

New Zealand commentator Tony Johnson has sung the Springboks’ praises, claiming the world champions will be “hellishly hard to beat” when they host the All Blacks in two highly-anticipated Tests.

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South Africa were a class above in their two matches against Australia as part of The Rugby Championship. The Springboks hadn’t won at Brisbane’s Suncorp Stadium since 2013 but that winless streak came to a triumphant end as they won 33-7 earlier this month.

While the Wallabies were eager to make amends for that disastrous performance in front of the Queensland faithful, it was a similar story out west seven days later. At Perth’s Optus Stadium, the Boks pulled away in the second half to win 30-12 on a wet night.

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The Springboks sit atop The Rugby Championship standings with two bonus point victories from as many starts. New Zealand and Argentina have one win each after splitting their two-match series, and then of course Australia who are in desperate need of a win.

Before taking on the All Blacks in Johannesburg and Cape Town, the Springboks already appear to be a strong position to charge towards the title. Tony Johnson has even gone as far to say this is the best they’ve looked “in a long, long time.”

“After the first round we can come to the conclusion, very readily, that the Springboks are in a very, very strong position here,” Johnson said on SENZ’s Afternoons with Staffy.

“You could argue that this is as good as the Springboks have been in a long, long time. Watching them play against Australia, there’s that old saying about bringing a knife to a gunfight.

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“They just couldn’t make any dents on that Springboks team who seems to be bigger and more muscular now than they have ever been in their forwards and they’ve got some dazzling talent in their backs.

“With the help of Tony Brown, a man who I’ve made no bones about I really wanted to see in the All Blacks setup, they’re going to be hellishly hard to beat.

Head-to-Head

Last 5 Meetings

Wins
4
Draws
0
Wins
1
Average Points scored
23
18
First try wins
60%
Home team wins
60%

“Then you’ve got the All Blacks who bounced back well, but as Ardie Savea said himself, why do we have to turn on a lousy performance in order to get a really good one out of ourselves? But they were a lot better which is encouraging.

“I think the sign is there that keeping it simple might be the best way forward for this team. Don’t get too convoluted.”

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It’s highly likely that the Springboks two Tests against the All Blacks will go a long way to deciding who wins The Rugby Championship. New Zealand are the defending champions while South Africa are searching for their first TRC crown since 2019.

But Argentina will have a thing or two to say about that. If Los Pumas can claim a two-nil series sweep over the touring Wallabies, then there’s every chance the Argies could be in the mix to challenge for the crown later in the competition.

Los Pumas stunned the All Blacks in Wellington but they couldn’t repeat those heroics a week later at New Zealand’s rugby fortress, Eden Park. It was a one-sided contest from start to finish with the hosts running riot during the opening 40-minute period.

However, they’ve returned home with the confidence that comes with beating the All Blacks in Aotearoa. They’ll hope to build off that when they host the Wallabies in two intriguing clashes, with the first fixture kicking off next weekend.

“The Pumas, I think they’ll be happy to get a win in New Zealand. They couldn’t reproduce it in the second Test match and that was a little bit predictable, it’s something they haven’t really been able to do and it was Eden Park,” Johnson continued.

“Australia, I’m afraid, just look in an absolutely terrible state – they really did look second rate and they’ve got a lot of improving to do in a short space of time.”

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Comments

27 Comments
W
Wayneo 222 days ago

The Springboks vs the All Blacks in the Ellis Park stadium is the closest thing we get to gladiatorial contests in today's world.


Just something about that stadium, that wall of noise that the players walk into and play with, it's something else.

E
Ed the Duck 223 days ago

SA are favourites here, whether they like it or not. Recent results between them point that way, TRC form points that way and the Bok camp stability also points that way. The fact SA will not underestimate the AB’s also points to ensuring things point to a 2-0 series.

I
IS 222 days ago

Si you saying they will get a 2-0 series win but not underestimate them

B
B 223 days ago

the Bokkes never raised a sweat in Brisbane...met with a little resistance in Perth but they were just simply too big, too strong...anyway, whatever happens the AB's will give it their best shot knowing that their forward packs stability and cohesion determined the outcome in 2022... Jason will have trained the 2024 version forward pack to their full potential as they try to plot another repeat of that performance...and while all this is going on the Bokkes defence and attack screens will be all out doing their thing too, repelling and countering the AB's with interest..too close to call... Go the AB's...All in with Attitude at Altitude.....or Not...

D
DC000 223 days ago

Going to be huge. The Battle for third best rugby team in the world.


It's the best the thicko SH rugby supporters can hope for!


Wonder if they'll be counting on the incompetence of the refs againn to get victories they clearly don't deserve.

M
MattJH 221 days ago

Now that’s just being plain mean.

H
Hellhound 222 days ago

Trolling again I see. If I was an Irish fan, I would make a personal visit, because every time you open your mouth, the stink just pollutes the Irish and turns the world fans against you. You don't help Ireland. You confirm everything bad that's ever been said about the Irish. You know where that is going to hurt the Irish even more? The "corrupt" refs as you call them. They are human and read social media. For years the Boks was done in by refs due to the attitudes. Now the Irish fans and the players it seems like is making it even worse. Remember this saying...Do unto others what you want others to do to you. Enjoy the pain. It's coming, no stopping it. Not only refs, but all staff gets tired by the abuse they receive from social media. The officials is a small community and they will talk and they will have their revenge their own way. Enjoy the pain big mouth. 🤣

A
Ace 223 days ago

Howzit naaitril. I see you're still butt hurt from the bollocking you received in the comments last time out 🤣 At least your copy & paste button still works...


Are you already down at the docks or will mommy be driving you & daddikins a bit later? Don't keep the sailors waiting!

T
Toaster 223 days ago

Such insights from a hemisphere who have one paltry World Cup victory 21 years ago to show for it!

Always full of promise but getting knocked out when it really matters

In some cases no further than the quarter finals 😱

G
GrahamVF 223 days ago

Yea who between them have won nine out of ten WC’s -clearly your grasp of the English language is about the same level as your vocabulary. “Why can’t the English teach their children how to speak? “

B
Bull Shark 223 days ago

Thanks for your input Nigel. We can always rely on you for entering something new to the discussion.

J
Jimmy 223 days ago

Get back under the bridge where you belong!

H
Hellhound 223 days ago

Not real praise, just blowing smoke in the hope the Boks will take it to heart and underestimate the AB's, which would lead to a loss. Luckily the team the Boks takes the most serious, is the AB's. This rivalry is way too old and close for either team to think they can just run over the other team. There will be no complacency from either team. It will be bone crunching massive hits, attack will be dazzling and defences will be tough to crack. Don't expect a high score nor more than 7 points maximum full time. Due to how the Boks played and won since before the WC up to now, and since both tests is in SA, the Boks are the favorites unfortunately and we may not like it, but it is how people see it. For the teams, there will be no favorites or underdogs. They both believe they can win and they both know the smallest mistakes will cost them dearly. Both teams are very dangerous, exciting and the best at what they do. Both teams know how to play knock out rugby and win. The Boks isn't going to use these 2 tests to blood new talent. For the 1st time in a long time, they play to win the RC. Two Giants going at it full throttle. I really can't wait

B
Bull Shark 223 days ago

In 10 tests going back to 2018 (the Rassie/Foster Era):


Matches won:

SA 4 - 5 ABs

(1 draw)


Total Points Scored:

SA 223 - 217 ABs


Highest Scoreline and Margin of defeat:


SA 35 - 7 ABs (Twickenham 2023)


Lowest Scoreline:


SA 12 - 11 NZ (RWC 2023)


Only two other games (Cape Town in 1970 and Wellington 1998) had lower score lines. 8-9 and 13-3 respectively, both to SA.


Average scoreline:

SA 22,3 - 21,7 ABs

🚩0,6 points difference over 10 games. Wow.


Home games won:

SA 1 - 1 ABs


Away games won:

SA 0 - 2 ABs (Loftus and Ellis Park)


Neutral venue games won:

SA 3 - 2 ABs


In the previous 10 matches between. SA and NZ - NZ won 9/10. 🤯


Let’s see how the Rassie / Razor era starts. While a 1-1 end result is a safe bet, my waters tell me the boks will win both. More convincingly at Eliis Park and then by a closer score at Cape Town.


If not - the Boks would have squandered their best chance yet of getting a leg up on the old Foe and beaten them 4 or more on the trot since 1949!


Suzie on call. 💩🤣

N
Ninjin 223 days ago

Anything can happen and we like it!

C
CR 223 days ago

Yeah, we are not buying the favourite tag. It’ll be as always, a battle for 80 mins.

T
Toaster 223 days ago

You don’t have to buy it

The Boks are overwhelming favourites

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I
IkeaBoy 1 hour ago
Why Les Kiss and Stuart Lancaster can lead Australia to glory

“Why are you so insistent on being wrong? Man United won in 2008 (beating Chelsea in the final). In 2009 Barcelona won, beating United.”

Good lad, just checking. So you’re not a bot! Chelsea bombed the 2008 final more than United won it. John Terry… couldn’t happen to a nicer fella.


“The gap between wins ignores the finals contested. 2 in 2 years with his City Triumph. The most recent put him in the elite company of managers to have won it with multiple clubs. Yet more late career success and history.”

Again - you’re not correct. City won the CL in 2023, and made the final in 2021. Those are the only two CL finals they have made.”

So the difference between 2021 and 2023 would of course be TWO YEARS. 24 months would account for 3 different seasons. They contested ECL finals twice in two years. The first in 2021 - which they lost - was still the first elite European final in the clubs then 141 year history. Explain clearly how that’s not an achievement? Guess what age he was then…


“I think your take on Gatland is pretty silly. Gatland was without Edwards in the 2013 and 2017 Lions tours and managed to do alright.”

I thought you don’t care what certain managers did 10 years ago…

Why would I address Eddie Jones? Why would he be deserving of a single sentence?


“I am aware Les Kiss has achieved great things in his career, but I don’t care what he did over ten years ago. Rugby was a different sport back then.”

So you haven’t watched even a minute of Super Rugby this year?


“lol u really need to chill out”

Simply frightful! If you’re not a bot you’re at least Gen-Z?

171 Go to comments
f
fl 1 hour ago
Why Les Kiss and Stuart Lancaster can lead Australia to glory

“Pep didn’t win the ECL in 2009. It was 2008 with Barca”

Why are you so insistent on being wrong? Man United won in 2008 (beating Chelsea in the final). In 2009 Barcelona won, beating United.


“The gap between wins ignores the finals contested. 2 in 2 years with his City Triumph. The most recent put him in the elite company of managers to have won it with multiple clubs. Yet more late career success and history.”

Again - you’re not correct. City won the CL in 2023, and made the final in 2021. Those are the only two CL finals they have made. With Barcelona, Pep made the semi final four consecutive times - with City he’s managed only 3 in 8 years. This year they didn’t even make the round of 16.


To re-cap, you wrote that Pep “has gotten better with age. By every measure.” There are some measures that support what you’re saying, but the vast majority of the measures that you have highlighted actually show the opposite.


I am aware Les Kiss has achieved great things in his career, but I don’t care what he did over ten years ago. Rugby was a different sport back then.


I think your take on Gatland is pretty silly. Gatland was without Edwards in the 2013 and 2017 Lions tours and managed to do alright. You’ve also not addressed Eddie Jones.


I agree wrt Schmidt. He would ideally be retained, but it wouldn’t work to have a remote head coach. He should definitely be hired as a consultant/analyst/selector though.


“Look at the talent that would be discarded in Schmidt and Kiss if your age Nazism was applied.”

lol u really need to chill out lad. Kiss and Schmidt would both be great members of the coaching set up in 2025, but it would be ridiculous to bank on either to retain the head coach role until 2031.

171 Go to comments
I
IkeaBoy 2 hours ago
Why Les Kiss and Stuart Lancaster can lead Australia to glory

Pep didn’t win the ECL in 2009. It was 2008 with Barca. The gap between wins ignores the finals contested. 2 in 2 years with his City Triumph. The most recent put him in the elite company of managers to have won it with multiple clubs. Yet more late career success and history.


His time with City - a lower win ratio compared to Bayern Munich as you say - includes a 100 PT season. A feat that will likely never be surpassed. I appreciate you don’t follow soccer too closely but even casual fans refer to the sport in ‘pre and post Pep’ terms and all because of what he has achieved and is continuing to achieve, late career. There is a reason that even U10’s play out from the back now at every level of the game. That’s also a fairly recent development.


How refreshing to return to rugby on a rugby forum.


Ireland won a long over due slam in 2009. The last embers of a golden generation was kicked on by a handful of young new players and a new senior coach. Kiss was brought in as defence coach and was the reason they won it. They’d the best defence in the game at the time. He all but invented the choke tackle. Fittingly they backed it up in the next world cup in their 2011 pool match against… Australia. The instantly iconic image of Will Genia getting rag-dolled by Stephen Ferris.


His career since has even included director of rugby positions. He would have an extremely good idea of where the game is at and where it is going in addition to governance experience and dealings. Not least in Oz were many of the players will have come via or across Rugby League pathways.


Gatland isn’t a valid coach to compare too. He only ever over-achieved and was barely schools level without Shaun Edwards at club or test level. His return to Wales simply exposed his limitations and a chaotic union. It wasn’t age.


Schmidt is open to staying involved in a remote capacity which I think deserves more attention. It would be a brain drain to lose him. He stepped in to coach the ABs in the first 2022 test against Ireland when Foster was laid out with Covid. They mullered Ireland 42-19. He was still heavily involved in the RWC 2023 quarter final. Same story.


Look at the talent that would be discarded in Schmidt and Kiss if your age Nazism was applied.

171 Go to comments
f
fl 3 hours ago
Why Les Kiss and Stuart Lancaster can lead Australia to glory

“He won a ECL and a domestic treble at the beginning of his career.”

He won 2 ECLs at the beginning of his career (2009, 2011). Since then he’s won 1 in 15 years.


“He then won 3 leagues on the bounce later in his career”

He won 3 leagues on the bounce at the start of his career too - (2009, 2010, 2011).


If we’re judging him by champions league wins, he peaked in his late 30s, early 40s. If we’re judging him by domestic titles he’s stayed pretty consistent over his career. If we’re judging him by overall win rate he peaked at Bayern, and was better at Barcelona than at City. So no, he hasn’t gotten better by every measure.


“You mentioned coaches were older around the mid-2010’s compared to the mid-2000’s. Robson was well above the average age you’ve given for those periods even in the 90’s when in his pomp.”

Robson was 63-64 when he was at Barcelona, so he wasn’t very old. But yeah, he was slightly above the average age of 60 I gave for the top 4 premier league coaches in 2015, and quite a bit above the averages for 2005 and 2025.


“Also, comparing coaches - and their experiences, achievements - at different ages is unstable. It’s not a valid way to compare and tends to torpedo your own logic when you do compare them on equal terms. I can see why you don’t like doing it.”

Well my logic certainly hasn’t been torpedoed. Currently the most successful premier league coaches right now are younger than they were ten years ago. You can throw all the nuance at it that you want, but that fact won’t change. It’s not even clear what comparing managers “on equal terms” would even mean, or why it would be relevant to anything I’ve said.


“You still haven’t answered why Kiss could be a risker appointment?”

Because I’ve been talking to you about football managers. If you want to change the subject then great - I care a lot more about rugby than I do football.

But wrt Kiss, I don’t agree that 25 years experience is actually that useful, given what a different sport rugby was 25 years ago. Obviously in theory more experience can never be a bad thing, but I think 10 years of coaching experience is actually more than enough these days. Erasmus had been a coach for 13 years when he got the SA top job. Andy Farrell had been a coach for 9 when he got the Ireland job. I don’t think anyone would say that either of them were lacking in experience.


Now - what about coaches who do have 25+ years experience? The clearest example of that would be Eddie Jones, who started coaching 31 years ago. He did pretty well everywhere he worked until around 2021 (when he was 61), when results with England hit a sharp decline. He similarly oversaw a terrible run with Australia, and currently isn’t doing a great job with Japan.

Another example is Warren Gatland, who also started coaching full-time 31 years ago, after 5 years as a player-coach. Gatland did pretty well everywhere he went until 2020 (when he was 56), when he did a relatively poor job with the Chiefs, before doing a pretty poor job with the Lions, and then overseeing a genuine disaster with Wales. There are very few other examples, as most coaches retire or step back into lesser roles when they enter their 60s. Mick Byrne actually has 34 years experience in coaching (but only 23 years coaching in rugby) and at 66 he’s the oldest coach of a top 10 side, and he’s actually doing really well. He goes to show that you can continue to be a good coach well into your 60s, but he seems like an outlier.


So the point is - right now, Les Kiss looks like a pretty reliable option, but 5 years ago so did Eddie Jones and Warren Gatland before they went on to prove that coaches often decline as they get older. If Australia want Kiss as a short term appointment to take over after Schmidt leaves in the summer, I don’t think that would be a terrible idea - but NB wanted Kiss as a long term appointment starting in 2027! That’s a massive risk, given the chance that his aptitude will begin to decline.


Its kind of analagous to how players decline. We know (for example) that a fly-half can still be world class at 38, but we also know that most fly-halves peak in their mid-to-late 20s, so it is generally considered a risk to build your game plan around someone much older than that.

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