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What makes 2025 a pivotal year for All Blacks selection in the World Cup context
By Ned Lester
The first All Blacks squad of 2025 is less than a week from being named, and pundits have piled extra emphasis on the upcoming campaign as coach Scott Robertson builds towards the 2027 Rugby World Cup.
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The conversation came about on The Breakdown as the panel of former All Blacks debated the potential selection of young Hurricanes N0. 8 Peter Lakai, who is tipped to have a bright future in the black jersey but has his work cut out for him earning selection amongst an uber-talented field.
Lakai has two Test caps to his name, a tally that will need to be added to before he can stake any kind of claim on a spot in the All Blacks’ matchday 23 at the upcoming World Cup.
Test experience is something that often comes up on the eve of Rugby World Cups, but coaches must plan ahead to ensure players are given the best chance to succeed. Former Test winger Jeff Wilson broke down the numbers to highlight the importance of selections in 2025.
“I do the numbers, and the numbers suggest to me there’s probably 30-35 Test matches (remaining). All Blacks coaches in the past have said that they would like to have somewhere between 30, 40, 50 Test matches in terms of experience,” Wilson explained on Sky Sport NZ‘s flagship rugby panel show.
“I’m going to give you some numbers then, this is the average Test caps. It’s based around at Rugby World Cups, the number of average Tests our players have.
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“So, we start talking around ’11, ’15, ’19 and ’23. As you see in ’11, we were a young team; it took one point, a one-point win to get the job done. ’15, it goes up a little bit more. ’19, it goes slightly down, and then 45 in ’23.
“So, I sit here and go, ‘we’re one play away from winning the 2023 World Cup’. But here’s another number for you as well. Against Italy last year, the last Test match of the year, we actually had an average of 53 Test matches.
“If you take out Sam Cane, TJ Perenara, who are now not there, and Ofa Tu’ungafasi, who’s not available through injury, we were still at 48.
“So, for me, I look at our group, I look at our experience, most of them, in two years’ time, are still going to be there. So, experience isn’t going to be a problem.”
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While Scott ‘Razor’ Robertson blooded 10 new players in 2024, he kept the bulk of the established talent, even those veterans who were confirmed to be ineligible for selection moving forward. If those new players can stick around, they have the chance to reach the 30-cap threshold by 2027.
Wilson’s co-panellist, Stephen ‘Beaver’ Donald, was the man who scored the winning points in the 2011 Rugby World Cup final, and added extra context to the value of the experience in the current squad.
“And World Cup experience isn’t going to be (a problem) either, because they’re all the guys that you talk about, the herd from 2023.
“Look at those other numbers, ’11 carried on to ’15 essentially, it was very much the same squad. So, they tick all those boxes. Having a 50-odd Test experience average, that’s a luxury.”
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All Blacks 2025:
1 Williams, DeGroot, Norris
2 Taylor, Taukei’aho, Aumua
3 Lomax, Newell, Tosi
4 S. Barrett, Tuipulotu
5 Va’ai, Holland, Lord
6 Blackadder, Finau
7 Savea, Kirifi
8 Sititi, Lakai
9 Roigard, Ratima, Hotham
10 B. Barrett, McKenzie
11 Clarke, Carter
12 J. Barrett, Tupaea, Tavatavanawai
13 Proctor, Ioane
14 Narawa
15 Jordan, Love
I do think it is very possible that Razor leaves Sititi at 6 and Savea at 8 which would probably shift Blackadder to 7.
Would love to see Carter getting a shot definitely has big crowd experience. And Proctor is a must. Lam has definitely put his hand up. Possibly get a look in via injuries
Lam gets in for me legit plays midfield both 12 and 13 and both wings has looked good sll year the new ALB for a 23 with a bit more Kapow and speed
Reckon Fihaki is in there does so many different things well including putting it on the boot accurate passing contests kicks elite goes alright at FB if things go pear shaped with game day injuries and is a heap faster than what most people think
If he is fit and can stay so in a 23 Blackadder at 6 makes putting Finau on the bench much easier
Would love to see a breakdown of possible selections by position from a “Kiwi expert”
For the Boks it is:
Ox, Steenekamp, Boan Venter, Wessels (also hooker)
Marx, Bongi, Marnus vd Merwe (Weasels and van Staden)
Thomas du Toit, Wilco Louw, Koch, Fouche and Nthlabakanye
Eben, Kleyn, Moerat, Wiese, (also 7)
Lood, RG, Mostert, Nortje (also 7)
Kolisi, van Staden, Kwagga
JL du Preez, Tshituka, Mostert, Nortje , Wiese (Louw and PSDT injured)
Wiese, Roos
Faf, Williams, Reinach, van den Bergh
Sacha, Pollard, Libbok
Arendse, Edwill vd Merwe, Mapimpi, Ethan Hooker ( also centre)
de Allende, Esterhuizen, Willemse ( also FB or 13)
Kriel
Kolbe, Moodie
Fassie, le Roux
Possible selections for the first squad are
Williams, DeGroot, Ollie Norris, Numia, Bower
Taylor, Samisoni, Aumua, Ioane Moananu, Bell
Lomax, Newell, Tosi
Barrett, Tuipulotu, Fabian Holland, Ah Kuoi, Lord
Vaai, Isaia Walker-Leawere
Finau, Simon Parker, Blackadder
Ardie, Sititi, Sotutu, Lakai, Cristian Lio-Willie
Dalton, Jacobsen, Kirifi
Roigard, Ratima, Hotham, Christie, Roe, Fakatava, Preston
Dmac, Beauden, Reuben Love, Rivez Reihana
Clarke, Leroy Carter
Jordie, Havili, Tupaea, Big Jim Tavatavanawai, AJ Lam
Rieko, Proctor, Ennor
Tele’a, Reece, Narawa
Jordan, Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens
Fullname denotes form rookie/bolters
Players not considered due to injury or contract status
Ofa
Darry
ALB
Caleb Tangitau
Stevenson
There are lots of other names being talked about and you might get one of those selected.
Some for me would be;
Riley Higgins
TK Howden
Flanders
Tanielu Tele’a
ENS
Cullum Harkin
But theres a couple of interesting others too, just a lot of really good performances this year by new guys that you dont know how to really rate/expect. A lot of those names will shift position to be utilized at a high level of course, so order in positions doesn’t mean likelyhood.
Not many standout centers this year for you guys?
3 Newell, Lomax, Tosi.
2 Taylor, Samosini, Aumua
1 Williams, De Groot, Fusitua,Bower
Locks Barrett,Tupou V, Tuipolotu, Fabian Hollland.
Loose fwds Ardie, Wallace,Blackadder, Finau,Luke J,Lakai
9 Roigard,Ratima,Hotham.
10 Damac,Beauden, Reuben Love (all can play 15)
Midfield JordieB, Reiko,Havili, Proctor,AJ Lam.
Wings Clarke, Fihaki,Sevu
15 Jordan
Think that’s 35 and think that is how many they will select and this is not my squad necessarily but the one I think they will select …Chur!
Interesting. Just taking the win against France in 2023 which took exceptional performances by both wingers in the first half to lay the foundation for the win. Allendse and Kolbe are still there. But it is debatable whether they can get to that level against, for arguments sake, a better French team.