Wallabies’ worst-case RWC 2027 pool draw doesn’t include Springboks

Two years on from their disastrous pool-stage exit in France, the Wallabies are just days away from a moment that will shape their shot at redemption – the pool draw for Men’s Rugby World Cup 2027 on home soil.

Australia finished their 15-Test season with a 33 per cent winning record, losing 10 matches in a calendar year for the first time in 126 years. But it’s not all doom and gloom, as Wallabies fans cling to hope ahead of the first Rugby World Cup in Australia since 2003.

The Wallabies stunned the British & Irish Lions and backed that up with a remarkable comeback win over the Springboks just two weeks later. Those wins offered Wallabies fans a reason to believe before the Rugby World Cup Draw on December 3.

They have been seeded in the second band of teams for the World Cup Draw, meaning they will be pitted against one of the world’s top-six sides in the group stage. Australia could face any of South Africa, New Zealand, Ireland, England, France or Argentina.

While World Rugby’s rankings suggest the Springboks are the team everyone absolutely wants to avoid, head-to-head matchups between the Wallabies and other sides paint a different picture. To give the hosts the best chance of topping their pool, they must avoid the All Blacks.

The All Blacks have won the last 11 Test matches against the Wallabies, a record that dates back to November 2020. Harry Wilson and Allan Alaalatoa started for the Wallabies that night at Suncorp Stadium, as the men in gold held on for a 24-22 win.

Australia have also only won 24.86 per cent of all-time meetings against their great foe from across the ditch. History indicates that facing the All Blacks would be the worst-case scenario for the Australians, followed by Ireland.

Ireland have won their last five matches against Australia, dating back to 2018. Their most recent meeting was a historic occasion for the Irish, who set a new team record for most points scored against the Wallabies in a 46-19 triumph in November 2025.

France are unbeaten in their last three matches against Australia,  including convincing 41-17 and 48-33 victories. An understrength Les Bleus outfit were beaten by the Wallabies 2-1 in a three-match series Down Under before the last World Cup.

The Springboks are the form team in men’s rugby right now, but they were beaten by the Wallabies in Johannesburg earlier this year – with the visitors coming back from a 22-point deficit to win 38-22 at Emirates Airline Park.

South Africa boasts a 54 per cent all-time winning record over Australia, including five positive results from their nine matches since the 2019 Rugby World Cup. The Wallabies hold a 50 per cent winning record on home soil in those matches.

The Wallabies stunned England during the 2024 Spring Tour, with Max Jorgensen the hero in a thrilling 42-37 triumph. Steve Borthwick’s men bounced back with an 18-point victory against one of their great rivals during the Quilter Nations Series.

England won two of three Tests Down Under during Eddie Jones’ coaching reign. Australia have only won two matches in this matchup since the 2019 Rugby World Cup, not including England’s dominant quarter-final win in Oita.

That means the best-case scenario for the Wallabies includes Los Pumas, with the Australians winning three of six meetings on home soil since the World Cup in Japan. That said, Argentina did get the chocolates in Sydney during this year’s Rugby Championship.

In the third band of teams, the Wallabies have never lost to any of these sides except for Tonga, who claimed a famous win in 1973. The most recent matchup between the Wallabies and Ikale Tahi was a 74-0 demolition in Canberra 27 years ago.

Georgia poses the toughest challenge, having pushed Australia during a Test in Sydney last year. Only a couple of points separated the teams during the second half, before the home side secured a hard-fought 11-point triumph.

Spain are a close second, having only lost to England A by four points a few weeks ago, and then Uruguay who have met Australia before. The Wallabies defeated Uruguay 45-10 at the 2019 World Cup, but Los Teros did get the better of Fiji at that tournament, so they’re capable of something historic.

With Chile on the rise and Tonga revered for their physicality, meeting Argentina and the USA in the same pool currently shapes up as the best-case scenario. The USA Eagles were recently beaten by Scotland 85-0, who are on a similar level to the Wallabies.

Finally, the highest-ranked side in band four is Samoa, who could be a tough challenge for any team. Manu Samoa booked their place at the upcoming event with a 13-all draw with Belgium at The Final Qualification Tournament, securing the 24^th spot at the World Cup.

Miracle Faiilagi headlines a star-studded forward pack, and former England centre Manu Tuilagi could switch to Samoa for the tournament. Samoa beat Australia 32-23 in Sydney before the 2011 World Cup, and they’ve met once since – the Wallabies getting the job done 34-15 in 2019.

Australia have a 100 per cent winning record from three matches against Romania, but their most recent clash favoured the Wallabies 90-8 in Brisbane. The Wallabies beat Portugal 34-14 in their only meeting at the 2023 World Cup, and are yet to play Hong Kong China or Zimbabwe.

Zimbabwe recently climbed above Canada on World Rugby’s rankings into 24^th spot. Western Force centurion Ian Prior came out of retirement to help Zimbabwe qualify for the World Cup, opening up about what it meant in an interview with RugbyPass’ Francisco Isaac.

While the Wallabies would go into any of these matches with band four opposition as overwhelming favourites, since Canada are the lowest-ranked side, they present the more favourable draw for the World Cup hosts.

The toughest pool for the Wallabies: New Zealand, Australia, Georgia, Samoa

The best-case scenario: Argentina, Australia, USA, Canada

Four Rugby World Cup seeding bands

Band 1: South Africa, New Zealand, England, Ireland, France, Argentina

Band 2: Australia, Fiji, Scotland, Italy, Wales, Japan

Band 3: Georgia, Spain, Uruguay, USA, Chile, Tonga

Band 4: Samoa, Portugal, Romania, Hong Kong China, Zimbabwe, Canada