Unpacking the one stat that every Rugby Union team should covet above all else - the gainline
England and Saracens performance analyst Ross Hamilton looks at what he believes is still rugby’s key statistical battleground and exactly why that is the case.
We all love rugby because of its unpredictability. It’s tense, dramatic, entertaining and we wouldn’t change it.
It does make it incredibly complicated to unpick and analyse however. If it were black and white, my job would have been significantly easier over the last 8 years.
There is no holy grail of data, no messiah of knowledge and no singular entity that explains why one team is better than another or why David beat Goliath.
That being said, everything in rugby is connected and everything can be prioritized by importance to help go towards explaining why games and championships have been won.
For me having spent my career analyzing top level rugby for Saracens and England there is one criteria that stands out above the rest.
The gainline.
The imaginary line on the pitch that every attacking team wants to cross and every defending team wants to protect.
If we take the two outstanding Premiership teams over the last few seasons; Saracens have the best gainline success this season with 53.43%. This means 1,012 of their total 1,894 carries have been over the gainline.
Exeter have the most total carries over the gainline with 1,223. Their success rate isn’t as high as Saracens say but for Exeter it’s a case of more is more and the more times they get over the gainline the more opportunities they give themselves, so even if they’re not very efficient they’re still very effective.
Very similarly if we now look at the bottom of the table; London Irish boast the lowest gainline success in the league of 43.28%. Worcester have only managed 819 carries over the gainline, the fewest this season.
We can dissect that information further and see how it affects each and every game. Looking at the best vs the worst; Saracens vs London Irish, they actually have a very similar amount of carries that get associated with the gainline (a kick receipt for example has no initial gainline to measure against). Saracens have had 1,894 total gainline carries or 95 carries per game on average.
Irish have made 1,973 total gainline carries for 99 carries per game. Saracens’ 10% higher gainline success than Irish’s then equates to 51 over the gainline carries for Saracens and 43 for Irish. If that doesn’t sound too significant then firstly trust me, it is. But secondly, 8 extra over the gainline carries (from fewer total carries) can result in 8 more try scoring opportunities. Converting even just one of those could be the difference between winning and losing at this level.
9⃣ – @tommy_seymour14 gained 215 metres from 24 carries during the 2017 Lions tour to New Zealand, his average gain of 9⃣ metres per carry was the highest of any @lionsofficial player on tour. Warrior. #Opta2017 pic.twitter.com/Yr2cMOkcNO
— OptaJonny (@OptaJonny) December 29, 2017
To try and describe the effect of this we would say that rugby is an invasion game and winning the gainline battle and achieving gainline success has so many positive repercussions for that team. In the simplest terms, to start, it gets you closer to the opposition try line but from here the benefits escalate. Getting over the gainline gives you ‘front foot ball’ a term often used that describes your ability as a team to play quickly whilst the defence is scrambling.
This is achieved as your support players are moving forward with momentum and can affect the breakdown much better resulting in quick ball for the scrum half, the defence at the same time now have to retreat and get around the ‘corner’ that is created by the ruck denting their flat defensive line. Defensive players initially need to defend the offload and then tight to the ruck where the first threat may be, this narrows everyone in defence and even if there is no threat the ability to ‘bounce out’ is hindered. This in turn limits line speed as they are still repositioning themselves while the ball is being played wide.
The lack of structure herein often leaves defences ‘numbers down’ with too few men to defend the oncoming attack. Each defender needs to make a decision on how to defend allowing good attackers to pick them off resulting in linebreaks and tries.
Now this scenario is unlikely to occur from one carry over the gainline but continued efforts create more and more unstructured defences giving the attacking team more opportunities to score.
1⃣5⃣6⃣ – @beaudenbarrett made 156 carries in Test rugby this year, the most by any tier one player, gaining 562 metres in the process. Jumper. pic.twitter.com/5GMB14NRQS
— OptaJonny (@OptaJonny) December 29, 2017
As I said this is not definitive, there are so many other factors contributing to success in rugby, the conversion of these opportunities for example, that one could never say “winning the gainline will win you the game”. Similarly it would not be possible to say this for any other factor and if something like this was stated, by definition, it must be wrong.
Why then do I think the gainline is the most important factor in determining results?
Analysis of this seasons major competitions show that out of 120 Premiership games to date (post round 20) 75 of those were won by the team that won that gainline for a success rate of 63%. This number increased in the Champions Cup post quarter final stage to 46 out of the 64 games equating to a 72% win rate. One final small increase was seen during the 6 Nations with 11 out of the 15 games won at 73%.
These kind of numbers in a game of such unpredictability are incredibly strong and to my current knowledge the highest correlation to success. So the next time you’re watching a match look out for which team is winning that battle and how it impacts on the game.
Watch episode one of the Rugby Explorer with Jim Hamilton
Ex-Scotland international, Jim Hamilton, travels to Singapore to explore the city and find out more about the rugby scene in the Southeast Asian country. He meets up with the national team captain and several local players.
Comments on RugbyPass
Thanks Brett, love your articles which are alway pertinent. It’s a difficult topic trying to have a panel adjudicating consistently penalties for red card issues. Many of the mitigating reasons raised are judged subjectively, hence the different outcomes. How to take away subjective opinions?
4 Go to commentsYes Sir! Surprising, just like Fraser would also have escaped sanction if he was a few inches lower, even if it was by accident that he missed! Has there really been talk about those sanctions or is this just sensational journalism? I stopped reading, so might have missed any notations.
4 Go to commentsAI is only as good as the information put in, the nuances of the sport, what you see out the corner of the eye, how you sum up in a split second the situation, yes the AI is a tool but will not help win games, more likely contribute to a loss, Rugby Players are not robots, all AI can do if offer a solution not the solution. AI will effect many sports, help train better golfers etc.
45 Go to commentsIt couldn’t have been Ryan Crotty. He wasn’t selected in either World Cup side - they chose Money Bill instead. And Money Bill only cared about himself, and that manager he had, not the team.
26 Go to commentsYawn 🥱 nobody would give a hoot about this new trophy. End of the day we just have to beat Ireland and NZ this year then they can finally shut up 🤐
13 Go to commentsTalking bout Ryan Crotty? Heard Crotty say in a interview once that SBW doesen't care about the team . He went on to say that whenever they lost a big game, SBW would be happy as if nothing happened, according to him someone who cares would look down.. Personally I think Crotty is in the wrong, not for feeling gutted but for expecting others 2 be like him… I have been a bad loser forever as it matters so much to me but good on you SBW for being able to see the bigger picture….
26 Go to commentsThis sounds like a WWE idea so Americans can also get excited about rugby, RUGBY NEEDS A INTERNATIONAL CALENDER .. The rugby Championship and Six Nations can be held at same time, top 3 of six nations and top 3 of Rugby championship (6 nations should include Georgia AND another qualifying country while Fiji, Japan and Samoa/Tonga qualifier should make out 6 Southern teams).. Scrap June internationals and year end tours. Have a Elite top six Cup and the Bottom 6 in a secondary comp….
13 Go to commentsThe rugby championship would be even stronger with Fiji in it… I know it doesen’t fit the long term plans of NZ or Aus but you are robbing a whole nation of being able to see their best players play for Fiji…. Every second player in NZ and AUS teams has Fijian surnames… shame on you!!! World rugby won’t step in either as France and England has now also joined in…. I guess where money is involved it will always be the poor countries missing out….
84 Go to commentsNo surprise there. How hard can it be to pick a ball off the ground and chuck it to a mate? 😂
2 Go to commentsSometimes people just like a moan mate!
4 Go to commentsexcellent idea ! rugby needs this 💪
13 Go to comments9 Brumbies! What a joke! The best performing team in Oz! Ditch Skelton for Swain or Neville. Ryan Lonergan ahead of McDermott any day! Best selection bolter is Toole … amazing player
12 Go to commentsI like this, but ultimately rugby already has enough trophies. Trying to make more games “consequential" might prove to be a fools errand, although this is a less bad idea than some others. Minor quibble with the title of the article; it isn’t very meaningful to say the boks are the unofficial world champions when it would be functionally impossible for the Raeburn trophy not to be held by the world champions. There’s a period of a few months every 4 years when there is no “unofficial” world champion, and the Raeburn trophy is held by the actual world champions.
13 Go to commentsIts a great idea but one that I dont think will have a lot of traction. It will depend on the prestige that they each hold but if you can do that it would be great. When Japan beat the Boks (my team) I was absolutely devestated but I wont deny the great game they played that day. We were outclassed and it was one of the best games of rugby I have seen. Using an idea like this you might just give the the underdog teams more of an opportunity to beat the big teams and I can absolutely see it being a brilliant display of rugby. They beat us because they planned for that game. It was a great moment for Japan. This way we can remove the 4 year wait and give teams something to aim for outside of World Cup years.
13 Go to commentsHi, Dave here. Happy to answer questions 🥰
13 Go to commentsDon’t think that headline is accurate. It’s great to see Aus doing better but I’m not sure they’ve shown much threat to the top of the table. They shouldn’t be inflating wins against the lousy Highlanders and Crusaders either.
3 Go to commentsSuch a shame Roigard and Aumua picked up long term injuries, probably the two form players in the comp. Also, pretty sure Clarke Dermody isn’t their coach. Got it half right though.
3 Go to commentsOh the Aussie media, they never learn. At least Andrew Kellaway is like “Woah, yeah it’s great, but settle down there guys” having endured years of the Aussie media, fans, and often their players getting ahead of themselves only to fall flat on their faces. Have the “We'll win the Bledisloe for sure this year!” headlines started yet? It’s simple to see what’s going on. The Aussie teams are settled, they didn't lose any of their major players overseas. The Crusaders and Chiefs lost key experienced All Blacks, and Razor in the Crusaders case, and clearly neither are anywhere near as strong as last year (The Canes and Blues would probably be 3rd & 4th if they were). The Highlanders are annually average, even more so post-Aaron Smith and a big squad clean out. The two teams at the top? The two nz sides with largely the same settled roster as last year, except Ardie Savea for the Canes. They’ve both got far better coaches now too. If the Aussies are going to win the title, this is the year the kiwi sides will be weakest, so they better take their chance.
3 Go to commentsThe World Cup has to be the gold standard, line in the sand. 113 teams compete for what is the opportunity to make the pool stages, and then the knockout games for the trophy. The concept is sound. This must have been the rationale when the World Cup was created, surely? But I’m all for Looking forward and finding new ways for the SH to dominate the NH into the future. The autumn series needs a change up. Let’s start by having the NH teams come south every odd year for the Autumn/Spring series games?
13 Go to commentsWhat’ll happen when the AI models of the future go back in time and try to destroy the AI models of the past standing in their way of certain victory?
45 Go to comments