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Three-way race to be number one in World Rugby men's rankings
By Jon Newcombe
Ireland, South Africa and New Zealand could all be ranked number one in the world in a few days’ time, adding another fascinating sub-plot to what should be a brilliant weekend of Test rugby.
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As many as 13 matches, including some notable Rugby World Cup 2023 replays, will count towards the rankings, but it’s what happens at the top that will grab most people’s attention.
South Africa conceded number one status to Ireland when they lost to Argentina in September, bringing to an end a 13-month unbroken reign, dating back to the quarter-finals of Rugby World Cup 2023.
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Ireland have been ranked first in the six weeks since but Friday night’s clash against the All Blacks in Dublin is the first time they have been tested on the field of play since replacing the Springboks at number one.
Andy Farrell’s side are guaranteed to remain on top of the rankings if they beat the All Blacks and extend their winning record at home to 20 matches, regardless of the outcome of South Africa’s match against Scotland at Murrayfield.
However, if Ireland fail to win, South Africa will return to number one in the world if they make it nine wins in a row against Scotland. A draw would also be enough for the Springboks if Ireland lose.
New Zealand’s 24-22 win over England at Allianz Stadium, Twickenham, may not have led to them improving on third place but it has put them in a position to climb to first place this weekend.
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The All Blacks haven’t been number one since the Rugby World Cup 2019 semi-final, but it will be theirs for the taking if they beat Ireland and South Africa lose to Scotland, a scenario which would see the All Blacks leapfrog both sides.
If South Africa draw with Scotland then New Zealand must have beaten Ireland by more than 15 points in the earlier of the two kick-offs to claim top spot and effectively swap places with Ireland.
Meanwhile, France cannot improve their rating in fourth with victory over Japan as a result of the 14.65 points difference between the sides before home weighting is factored in.
However, there is scope for plenty of movement among the other teams in action in the Autumn Nations Series or men’s internationals this weekend.
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Four teams can end the weekend in fourth – current incumbents France and then Argentina, England and Scotland if Les Bleus lose at home to Japan.
Los Pumas will jump two places to fourth if they beat Italy and France are beaten on home soil by Japan, regardless of what England do against Australia.
For England to climb to fourth they must not only defeat Australia, but also hope that Argentina and Scotland fail to win and France lose by more than 15 points.
If Argentina and Scotland do win then England will fall a place to sixth even if they beat the Wallabies by more than 15 points – two if France’s defeat is by a smaller margin. England have not been as low as seventh since February 2016.
Italy are currently at their highest-ever position of eighth and cannot go any higher, even if they beat Argentina by more than 15 points as there is not a combination of results to make this possible.
The Azzurri could beat Los Pumas and still fall a place if Australia beat England at Allianz Stadium.
As for the match in Cardiff, there is a lot riding on the outcome for both Wales and Fiji. Fiji could climb as many as two places with victory over Wales, but it is dependent on the scoreline and results of other matches involving teams around them.
Wales cannot improve on 11th place even if they beat Fiji by more than 15 points, although the deficit between themselves and the top 10 would be cut to just 0.03 rating points.
There is a scenario where Wales could drop to a new low of 12th – if they lose to Fiji by more than 15 points and Japan beat France by the same margin.
Japan would jump three places in this case, also climbing above both Samoa and Georgia who are not in test action this weekend, with the latter playing the All Blacks XV in Montpellier.
Away from the Autumn Nations Series, there are seven matches on three continents this weekend which can also impact the rankings.
Two of these fixtures in Europe – Canada v Chile and Spain v Uruguay – involve teams separated by only one place and in each, the lower-ranked team (Canada and Spain) will leapfrog their opponents if they win.
Spain will also climb above a Tonga side beaten by Romania, while Canada can return to the top 20 for the first time since February 2019 with victory over Chile – the side that ended their hopes of qualifying for Rugby World Cup 2023 – and the Oaks lose.
Chile can enter the top 20 for the first time with victory if Romania lose, or the Oaks draw and Chile win by more than 15 points. However, Los Condores will fall a place to 23rd if they lose and Hong Kong China beat their visitors Brazil in the first of two tests between the nations this month.
Portugal cannot improve on 15th place even if they beat USA by more than 15 points in Coimbra as they can only gain a maximum of 0.31 rating points. Defeat for Portugal could see them fall as many as three places depending on the margin and other results with USA becoming the higher ranked of the two nations if they win by more than 15 points.
Uruguay can climb a place to 16th if they beat Spain and Tonga lose to Romania.
The Men’s Elgon Cup 2024 first leg also features two sides separated by one place but Kenya will move above Uganda if they taste victory in Nairobi.
Brazil, though, have the most to gain this weekend as victory over Hong Kong China would lift them four places to 26th with a new high of 23rd possible if they win by more than 15 points.
Czechia cannot improve their position by beating Croatia in the Rugby Europe Men’s Trophy 2024-25, but will slip below their visitors if they suffer defeat.
The Rugby Europe Men’s Conference 2024-25 match between Ukraine and Slovakia will not count towards the rankings as the latter are not a full member of World Rugby.
The imminent World Rugby Nations Cup & its base, this world rugby ranking system is a far better statement OF CURRENT world’s best team. & therefore ACTUAL current WORLD CHAMPION.
The RWC, like all other World Champion Tournaments (eg FIFA, etc) a great show piece for World Rugby & it champion ... for THAT couple of months, ie brief tournament sport.
But it's champion calling itself champion in the years later if it's actually not ranked 1 is clearly a desperate nonsense.
Bit like the the US calling its winners of it internal tournaments eg NBA, 'World' Series Baseball, etc, World Champions??!!
Your not current champion if you're not ranked 1.
FACT ... 1st = 1st!
The 4 yearly RWC is a great tournament & it winner a worthy winner & champion... of that tournament.
But its also just a cash cow, marketing & branding show piece for World Rugby & the winner ie but where you only play 2-3 seriously competitive games to earn 4years of bragging rights… even if the get beaten regularly in that next 4 years as has soon often happened.
Not the future Nations Cup World Rugby, where the THEN CURRENT top ranked teams will play off for the ... current world's best team.
That winner is true CURRENT World Champion, ie including top of the 6N & RC pile.
T(i)T
This is not boxing.
World Cup = World Champion.
World no. 1 = World ranked no. 1.
It’s not rocket science. Nobody is confused by it. Pretty easy to fathom.
The All Blacks 10 year ranking as World #1 from Nov. 2009 to Sep.2019 is a feat SAF, IRL FRN. ENG. could never hope to achieve.
SA. 13 month reign ended when Rassie played his hand and got it wrong by selecting a C team vs Los Puma after the All Blacks had pummeled them at Eden Park.
You've got to have the men with Xfactor DNA to reach the heights of what past All Black teams have done and for mine, Scott Robertson is the right man for that mission.
Go the All Blacks.. onwards and upwards...
Either the All Blacks were superhuman superheroes or maybe the standard was a lot poorer then. International Rugby needs to expand its competitiveness and move beyond situations where one team can dominate and the RWC is de facto shared between two teams. The pace of growth has been shockingly poor since 1987.
Never is a long time and competition is a whole lot tougher than then. Strategies have changed due to rule changes. Nothing the AB's got away with then, will work now. The ABs was great then, I agree, but now they are a good competitive team only. So are the rest, except for the Boks who is currently a great team with everything they have achieved.
Personally, I don't like measuring teams from the past against current teams. Too much changed. Different eras with different rules and regulations etc etc etc. I prefer to rate teams by decades. For instance, who was the best team between 2000 and 2010, best between 2011 and 2020 etc.
There is many ways people rate the best teams and the world rugby ranking system is absolute 💩. Some would rank the best teams via WC's. Other would say how many games they win between and during WC's. The Richie McCaw AB's was the best of their time, no doubt.
We need a new ranking system. I don't have a system to suggest except the usual, but I wouldn't mind other people's inputs as to what they think will work or why they prefer this system and why.
What!?
That’s incredible. I didn’t know three teams could all be ranked number one at the same time.
In the real world, Ireland is the clear #1, France is #2 and the Saffas and Kiwis are fighting to remain even relevant at this stage given how shite SH rugby truly is.
Incorrect, RSA, South Africa and Springboks are all the same team so it's a false contest here...
IF SA and NZ win then its 1,2,3 SA/NZ/IRL Otherwise as you were. This is largely irrelevant beyond bragging rights.
As I have pointed out elsewhere the practical use of the Rankings is to determine the seedings bands for the RWC draw. The draw takes place early 2026 and hopefully the rankings will be taken from then.
Important to be in the top 6, the top 12. (and likely the top 4).
This is because there are now 6 groups in the RWC 2027.
If you are in top 6 you are in Seeding Band 1. That means none of the other top 6 will be in your group.
Seeding Band 2 are teams from 7-12, who will have a top 6 team but no other 7-12 team.
After England's defeat by NZ there is clear water between NZ in 3rd, France in 4th and England in 5th. England are desperate for top4, ill come back and explain why later.
Lets look at Seeding Band 1 and 6th place. If you make 6th, no top 6 team is in your group, you are top dog. If you win your group, you won't be facing a top 6 team in your 1/8th final, you will be facing a weaker team. If you fail to make 6th place you WILL have a top 6 team in your group and if you don't win your group you WILL (probably) meet a top 6 in the 1/8 final. That's massive.
Its Argentina holding 6th now. Assuming England hold 5th, then its a 4 horse race for 6th. Argentina, Scotland, Italy and ...Australia. (ranked 6,7,8,9)
Australia play the Lions in NH summer 2025 they are running out of time to get up to 6th for their own RWC. They MUST make a move now. They must beat Wales and they really must beat Scotland to gain points and take points off them. Could they surprise England or Ireland? England may be the better bet but Schmidt knows Ireland so well having masterminded their downfall in France.
Another one to watch is Italy V Argentina. Italy are ambitious and they will want to start pushing the likes of Argentina. If they win this they are still in the hunt. Well worth a watch either way.
Top4: I think the top 6 will be seeded, all the way through from the draw. If thats the case then the top 4 will be seeded to avoid each other until the semi. Good for more certainty around ticket sales etc. That's a possible reason why England want in there. You're not in there you are hitting a top 4 team in a QF. That's an extra 50:50 match you can do without and avoid by being top 4.
Lets look at what Seeding bands might look like with todays rankings:
Seeding Band 1
IRE/SA/NZ/FRA/ENG/ARG
Seeding Band 2
SCO/ITA/AUS/FIJ/WAL/GEO
Sample Aussie strongest pool opponent and 1/8th final opponent if in top 6
Strongest pool opponent: FIJI
1/8 final opponent GEORGIA
Prognosis: advance to 1/4 and potentially beyond
Sample Aussie strongest pool opponent and 1/8th final opponent if NOT in top 6
Strongest pool opponent: SOUTH AFRICA
1/8 final opponent NEW ZEALAND
Prognosis: You know the prognosis
I am pretty sure this is not lost on Joe Schmidt?
Keep in mind when enjoying the matches.
Thanks for the insight regarding top4. I previously thought only being in the top6 matters, but that makes sense you would aim for a higher rank to avoid a big name in the QF.
Don't usually agree with you, but well said and written.
The round of 16 needs to be based on how you finish at the group stages of the world cup only, like how the European QFs used to be based. That was worked out as finishing top seed you played 8th, and so on moving inwards. (2nd v 7th, 3rd v 6th etc.). I hope the rankings dont come into play for the round of 16. Has it been announced how it will be determined?
The rankings get you to the world cup, but they cant be used to ease your way to a SF. Might as well just have the top 4 play each other and have a final and winners from those 4 only.
Using how you finish at the group stages means all games will have something on them - a team has to score more points and improve points difference. Everyones in the same boat. Thats makes a much better spectacle than using the rankings to determine who you play at each stage - that sounds awful and cherry picking to me.
This is an awesome analysis RedWarrior - thank you. The autumn international therefore do matter for all teams across the board.