Three reasons why the All Blacks might not get the three-peat
New Zealand will enter the 2019 Rugby World Cup as favourites – maybe not by a huge margin, but the shortest odds will definitely be on the All Blacks taking out the competition for the third time in a row.
Ignoring the strengths of the other teams for one moment, there are a few different reasons why the men in black might not do the triple.
A raft of Injuries
It’s become rare in the modern era for a national squad to have access to all their players at any given time: injuries are just another part of international rugby.
Damian McKenzie won’t feature at all for the All Blacks in the World Cup and Brodie Retallick will probably be available for just the quarter-finals.
There’s no doubt going to be more injuries to come, too.
Luke Jacobson, the biggest bolter in the squad, has been struggling with concussion issues for the last couple of years. He missed all of 2018’s Mitre 10 Cup season and also sat out the first and last few weeks of the Chiefs’ campaign this season.
Jacobson managed an appearance off the bench against Argentina but then wasn’t able to travel to Perth for the first Bledisloe test after a recurrence of concussion symptoms.
“I was on the pads against South Africa and went through fitness the Monday afterwards and had a bit of a headache,” Jacobson said.
“Then it got worse and it felt like another concussion.”
Concussion is about as scary an injury a player can go through – you never know long the issues will linger. In Jacobson’s case, it seems like even fairly innocuous events can retrigger the symptoms, which should be worrying for everyone in the All Blacks camp.
The current squad has already been hit hard by injuries this year.
Retallick missed a sizeable chunk of Super Rugby, alongside his Chiefs co-captain Sam Cane. Cane has quickly found a rich vein of form but even prior to his shoulder injury, Retallick wasn’t operating anywhere near his best.
Ryan Crotty made an appearance for Canterbury this weekend but will hit the World Cup with just a single international cap under his belt this year (assuming he’s named in the side to face Tonga next week) due to a broken thumb. His Crusaders teammate, Scott Barrett, missed the first couple of Rugby Championship games and managed just half a game against Australia before getting a red card. He will unavailable for selection until the World Cup.
There are further issues in the midfield with both Sonny Bill Williams and Jack Goodhue currently undercooked. Goodhue mustered just one and a half games during this year’s internationals whilst Williams, who sat out a good chunk of the Super Rugby season, has played in just two test this year.
Injuries – both before and during the tournament – have curtailed a few Rugby World Cup campaigns in the past. The All Blacks aren’t exactly in tip-top shape as the competition approaches and will be hoping they can escape with no further set-backs.
Lack of sudden death experience
The Southern Hemisphere sides – and the All Blacks in particular – aren’t exactly used to gruelling, do-or-die matches.
The Rugby Championship, despite what SANZAAR may want you to think, is a low-stakes, low-pressure competition. Even if we cast aside the fact no one really seems to care about the tournament as a whole, winning it has hardly been a tough ask for the All Blacks in recent times.
Only twice in the tournament’s eight-year history have New Zealand not taken out the trophy.
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Argentina have not lived up to their promise and are almost a guaranteed 4 or 5 competition points for the All Blacks. New Zealand have blooded more players to test rugby against Argentina than any other team; they simply haven’t been a challenge to the black machine. The Springboks and the Wallabies have sometimes struggled against the Pumas but that’s only made the competition easier for the All Blacks.
The home sides have traditionally had a major advantage in the Rugby Championship, given the significant travel factor. There’s little pressure on the All Blacks when they play at home because there’s just such a low chance of them losing.
New Zealand haven’t struggled to top the ladder because Argentina gift them a pair of wins every year. Couple that with their two home victories against South Africa and Australia and they can even afford to drop an away match or two.
The short of it is the All Blacks have rarely faced pressure in a Rugby Championship that would come close to what they’ll face in the World Cup. The only times that individual games have had a major bearing on the tournament have been in the two World Cup years where each team plays only three games.
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Notably, New Zealand fell short in both those years.
On the other side of the equator, the team that wins the Six Nations has to regularly do it without dropping any fixtures. One loss can be fatal to a campaign – which is not the case at all in the Rugby Championship.
Many European-based players inevitably end up playing in the Champions Cup – which has a rigorous finals draw. Maybe five years ago the Super Rugby sudden death fixtures compared to the pointy end of the European season but the atmosphere and quality of the Northern Hemisphere club season now comfortably trumps what’s going on down south.
That’s not to say the All Blacks won’t cope with tight, do-or-die games. England, Ireland and Wales have far more experience in that area, however. If matches remain close heading into the final quarter then it could be the Northern Hemisphere sides who have the advantage.
The weight of expectation
The All Blacks have been on top of the world for the last ten years. Wales may have spent the last week at the top of the world rankings but they crashed and burned against Ireland over the weekend.
Probably no team in any sport ever has quite as much a burden placed upon their shoulders as the New Zealand national side do.
No matter where they’re playing, no matter who they’re up against, the expectation is that the All Blacks will win.
Since they took over at the top of the rankings in 2009, New Zealand have played 129 matches and lost just 12 of those games. They’ve also had four draws during that period.
A quarter of those losses and draws have come in just the last year, however, indicating New Zealand don’t have quite the same dominance right now as they have had in the past.
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That won’t stop the nation throwing their belief behind the All Blacks.
Unlike other countries, where the majority of fans seems to see the lone grey cloud in the sky, Kiwi fans have tended to expect the best from their team, even where they’re not playing especially well.
Sure, losses may be treated as a sign of the end times for about a week – but a win of any calibre tends to reset the mood to one of unprecedented optimism.
Every All Blacks loss, no matter who it’s against, comes as a major shock. That means even though New Zealand haven’t been playing particularly well in the last year, the general expectation emanating from NZ fans is the All Blacks will take the World Cup.
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That’s a huge burden for the current crop of players to shoulder.
In the last two World Cups, the All Blacks have had plenty of experienced players to fall back on – guys with over 100 test caps, or players who have tasted defeat at a World Cup.
That’s not the case this year.
Only Kieran Read and Sam Whitelock are test match centurions in the current team. In 2015, the All Blacks had Keven Mealamu, Tony Woodcock, Richie McCaw, and Dan Carter – with Ma’a Nonu only a few short. McCaw and Mils Muliana were the sole 100-cap-plus players at the 2011 tournament – but Andrew Hore, Ali Williams, Andy Ellis, Mealamu, Conrad Smith, Woodcock, McCaw, Carter and Muliaina had all been a part of the squad which was knocked out of the quarter-finals in 2007.
Looking at the current squad, some players probably barely remember the 2007 World Cup. Luke Jacobson, Rieko Ioane, Sevu Reece and Jordie Barrett would have all been just 10 years old when the All Blacks suffered their worst ever World Cup result – do they have the experience to deal with the weight of the nation?
There’s no question that the All Blacks are one of the best teams in the world right now. They won’t enter the 2019 World Cup with crazy short odds to take out the trophy, however, because their dominance has fallen away in the last 12 months. Obviously it will come down to what happens on the day but fans would be wise to wrangle in their expectations: this tournament is not simply New Zealand’s to lose.
Comments on RugbyPass
Bell injured his foot didn’t he? Bring Tupou in he’ll deliver when it counts. Agree mostly but I would switch in the Reds number 8 Harry Wilson for Swinton and move Rob Valentini to 6 instead. Wilson is a clever player who reads the play, you can’t outmuscle the AB’s and Springboks, if you have any chance it’s by playing clever. Same goes for Paisami, he’s a little guy who doesn’t really trouble the likes of De Allende and Jordie Barrett. I’d rather play Carter Gordon at 12 and put Michael Lynagh’s boy at 10. That way you get a BMT type goalkicker at 10 and a playmaker at 12. Anyways, just my two cents as a Bok supporter.
13 Go to commentsThanks Brett, love your articles which are alway pertinent. It’s a difficult topic trying to have a panel adjudicating consistently penalties for red card issues. Many of the mitigating reasons raised are judged subjectively, hence the different outcomes. How to take away subjective opinions?
4 Go to commentsYes Sir! Surprising, just like Fraser would also have escaped sanction if he was a few inches lower, even if it was by accident that he missed! Has there really been talk about those sanctions or is this just sensational journalism? I stopped reading, so might have missed any notations.
4 Go to commentsAI is only as good as the information put in, the nuances of the sport, what you see out the corner of the eye, how you sum up in a split second the situation, yes the AI is a tool but will not help win games, more likely contribute to a loss, Rugby Players are not robots, all AI can do if offer a solution not the solution. AI will effect many sports, help train better golfers etc.
45 Go to commentsIt couldn’t have been Ryan Crotty. He wasn’t selected in either World Cup side - they chose Money Bill instead. And Money Bill only cared about himself, and that manager he had, not the team.
26 Go to commentsYawn 🥱 nobody would give a hoot about this new trophy. End of the day we just have to beat Ireland and NZ this year then they can finally shut up 🤐
13 Go to commentsTalking bout Ryan Crotty? Heard Crotty say in a interview once that SBW doesen't care about the team . He went on to say that whenever they lost a big game, SBW would be happy as if nothing happened, according to him someone who cares would look down.. Personally I think Crotty is in the wrong, not for feeling gutted but for expecting others 2 be like him… I have been a bad loser forever as it matters so much to me but good on you SBW for being able to see the bigger picture….
26 Go to commentsThis sounds like a WWE idea so Americans can also get excited about rugby, RUGBY NEEDS A INTERNATIONAL CALENDER .. The rugby Championship and Six Nations can be held at same time, top 3 of six nations and top 3 of Rugby championship (6 nations should include Georgia AND another qualifying country while Fiji, Japan and Samoa/Tonga qualifier should make out 6 Southern teams).. Scrap June internationals and year end tours. Have a Elite top six Cup and the Bottom 6 in a secondary comp….
13 Go to commentsThe rugby championship would be even stronger with Fiji in it… I know it doesen’t fit the long term plans of NZ or Aus but you are robbing a whole nation of being able to see their best players play for Fiji…. Every second player in NZ and AUS teams has Fijian surnames… shame on you!!! World rugby won’t step in either as France and England has now also joined in…. I guess where money is involved it will always be the poor countries missing out….
84 Go to commentsNo surprise there. How hard can it be to pick a ball off the ground and chuck it to a mate? 😂
2 Go to commentsSometimes people just like a moan mate!
4 Go to commentsexcellent idea ! rugby needs this 💪
13 Go to comments9 Brumbies! What a joke! The best performing team in Oz! Ditch Skelton for Swain or Neville. Ryan Lonergan ahead of McDermott any day! Best selection bolter is Toole … amazing player
13 Go to commentsI like this, but ultimately rugby already has enough trophies. Trying to make more games “consequential" might prove to be a fools errand, although this is a less bad idea than some others. Minor quibble with the title of the article; it isn’t very meaningful to say the boks are the unofficial world champions when it would be functionally impossible for the Raeburn trophy not to be held by the world champions. There’s a period of a few months every 4 years when there is no “unofficial” world champion, and the Raeburn trophy is held by the actual world champions.
13 Go to commentsIts a great idea but one that I dont think will have a lot of traction. It will depend on the prestige that they each hold but if you can do that it would be great. When Japan beat the Boks (my team) I was absolutely devestated but I wont deny the great game they played that day. We were outclassed and it was one of the best games of rugby I have seen. Using an idea like this you might just give the the underdog teams more of an opportunity to beat the big teams and I can absolutely see it being a brilliant display of rugby. They beat us because they planned for that game. It was a great moment for Japan. This way we can remove the 4 year wait and give teams something to aim for outside of World Cup years.
13 Go to commentsHi, Dave here. Happy to answer questions 🥰
13 Go to commentsDon’t think that headline is accurate. It’s great to see Aus doing better but I’m not sure they’ve shown much threat to the top of the table. They shouldn’t be inflating wins against the lousy Highlanders and Crusaders either.
3 Go to commentsSuch a shame Roigard and Aumua picked up long term injuries, probably the two form players in the comp. Also, pretty sure Clarke Dermody isn’t their coach. Got it half right though.
3 Go to commentsOh the Aussie media, they never learn. At least Andrew Kellaway is like “Woah, yeah it’s great, but settle down there guys” having endured years of the Aussie media, fans, and often their players getting ahead of themselves only to fall flat on their faces. Have the “We'll win the Bledisloe for sure this year!” headlines started yet? It’s simple to see what’s going on. The Aussie teams are settled, they didn't lose any of their major players overseas. The Crusaders and Chiefs lost key experienced All Blacks, and Razor in the Crusaders case, and clearly neither are anywhere near as strong as last year (The Canes and Blues would probably be 3rd & 4th if they were). The Highlanders are annually average, even more so post-Aaron Smith and a big squad clean out. The two teams at the top? The two nz sides with largely the same settled roster as last year, except Ardie Savea for the Canes. They’ve both got far better coaches now too. If the Aussies are going to win the title, this is the year the kiwi sides will be weakest, so they better take their chance.
3 Go to commentsThe World Cup has to be the gold standard, line in the sand. 113 teams compete for what is the opportunity to make the pool stages, and then the knockout games for the trophy. The concept is sound. This must have been the rationale when the World Cup was created, surely? But I’m all for Looking forward and finding new ways for the SH to dominate the NH into the future. The autumn series needs a change up. Let’s start by having the NH teams come south every odd year for the Autumn/Spring series games?
13 Go to comments