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The Wallabies’ ‘paradox’ shows why unpolished win was a double-edged sword
The Wallabies have taken yet another big step on their path to improvement under Joe Schmidt with their gutsy win over Argentina in La Plata.
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Beating Argentina at home is no mean feat, especially when they are playing for a fairytale send-off their most capped player ever, Agustin Creevy.
Nevertheless, Joe Schmidt and Wallabies know they played poorly in periods, which will not be enough in the games which await this team.
Two things can be true at once: the Wallabies win showed big growth whilst showing how much they still need to improve to be able to compete with the top end of town.
“I know it’s paradoxical but we’re trying to take a long-term view with a short-term focus,” Schmidt said in a press conference last week before the Wallabies nail-biting win in Buenos Aires.
Winning ugly is an important lesson, but Schmidt and the Wallabies cannot make this the standard, they must continue the growth and begin to add the polish.
The facts remain: they were unable to get over the gainline regularly and they still don’t have a defensive maul.
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On the other hand, their defence, the ascendency in the scrum, the ability to pester at the ruck and at lineout time showed a side with grit as well as talent.
It showed that if the Wallabies truly want to compete with the All Blacks in just a few weeks’ time they must be more accurate and start finding ways over the gainline.
The most pleasing aspects were the composure in the face of adversity and the trust in their process which showed a calmness and maturity not seen from a Wallabies side for several years.
No better two moments exemplified this than their two instances of 20+ phases which occurred 76 minutes apart, as well as the maturity shown in the dying minutes to wait out an Argentinian mistake to clinch the win.
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In recent years, the Wallabies have found themselves far too often on the wrong side of results which have been decided by less than an unconverted try.
These sorts of losses gnaw at you more than the big ones, because you know that the margins were so small.
Just over a year ago, the Wallabies let their game against Argentina slip through their fingers in Sydney, 34-31, a game which was also decided near the death.
A team full of world beaters, Will Skelton, Richie Arnold, Samu Kerevi, Quade Cooper, and Mark Nawaqanitawase couldn’t eek out the win in Parramatta.
The clear differences between the performances in these two games are hard to decipher in the numbers.
At the weekend the Wallabies conceded 19 points, in 2023 they conceded 34, defending at 89 and 91 per cent respectively.
On Sunday they made a very low 1.6 post-contact metres per carry, in 2023 they made 2m.
In Argentina they made three line breaks, in 2023 they made seven.
In La Plata the Wallabies conceded just eight penalties, the lowest this year, in 2023 they conceded 14 as well as a yellow card.
However, the Wallabies made more tackles in 2023, and scored more points themselves, but nevertheless, they lost on home soil.
There are other notable differences in game style as well, with the Wallabies kicking 27 times at the weekend in the wet, whereas they hoisted the ball just 13 times in 2023.
The difference in philosophy also showed with the Wallabies making 167 passes on Sunday morning, whilst only making 102 last year, but again, the Wallabies had 50-50 possession at the weekend whilst in 2023, they had just 38 per cent.
This was of course due to Eddie Jones’ ‘possession rugby is dead mate’ philosophy at the time.
This is all to say that sometimes the numbers can’t always give a clear picture of why a team wins one game and losses another.
Sometimes it’s the unquantifiable, intangible things like composure, trust in the process, and perseverance which matter during the 80 minutes.
While the whole team stood up and took account for their game, there were those which were clear standouts, the players which helped turn the tide.
Angus Bell had his best game in a Wallaby jersey for some time, likewise Carlo Tizzano had his best performance, currently sitting at 100 per cent tackle completion at 57/57 tackles.
Not only is Tizzano a powerhouse in defence, from one week to the next he is improving, picking his moments of when to chop and when to pilfer.
This quick growth earnt him two crucial, pressure relieving breakdown pilfers, which gave his side some respite and to turned momentum.
The pair worked well in tandem all night, exemplified by Bell’s rib-rattler on Tomas Lavanini in the 45th minute, a shot which gave Tizzano the perfect opportunity to pilfer.
The pair also made the most dominant tackles by some margin, bagging five and four respectively.
Rob Valetini continued his wrecking ball ways, his try in the 49th minute and bump on Marcos Kremer in the 25th minute showed just how robust Valetini is.
Kremer is one of rugby’s toughest and hardest hitting men, but it seems all he got was a stinger for his troubles.
The rest of the pack never said die, although not making a lot of headway in contact, each player had a unique part of their game which contributed directly to the win in one way or another.
Lukhan Salakaia-Loto with his lineout steals, Matt Faessler for his defensive effort, Harry Wilson with his appetite for hit-ups and try saving tackle, Nick Frost for setting the defensive line-speed and Taniela Tupou for asserting dominance at the scrum.
Most pleasing for Tupou were the repeat efforts he got through, like the one in the 41st minute, where he made three tackles back-to-back-to-back.
Especially pleasing considering he has only played managed 40 minutes in his appearances thus far.
In the backs they were all steady performers with Len Ikitau shining the brightest.
He showed why he was nearing world class status before he suffered his scapula injury in the 2023 clash with Argentina.
He made 5/5 tackles and beat a game-high of five defenders in his 11 carries, regularly attracting two or more defenders.
Ikitau’s ability to beat the first defender in close quarters surprises every time he does it, you couldn’t catch the guy in a phone box.
The absolute stormer he was having in La Plata was typified by his no-look pass for the try-assist leading up to Jake Gordon’s try in the 26th minute.
Three defenders only had eyes for Ikitau, because by this stage they had already learned what a threat he is with ball in hand.
That No. 13 jersey is all his.
It’s encouraging that the bulk of the positives came from the forward pack, after all, the battle is won and lost up front.
Despite not being able to generate go forward ball, the Wallabies’ ability to hold onto possession without giving away cheap penalties on attack was great to see.
Schmidt and his team won by sheer determination, and although that’s a crucial part of a team’s DNA, it won’t be enough a second time against Los Pumas.
The Wallabies are too inexperienced and inaccurate too often; to live off sporadic moments.
The Wallabies must find a way to defend the maul, the Wallabies’ forwards must find a way to make closer to 4m per carry, currently they are way under that, and the Wallabies must continue to trust in each other and the process.
More nail biters will come, and bigger Tests are just around the corner, but for now, Schmidt will take a shaky win, on foreign soil, the first of his reign and call it a job well done.
Schmidt is in a ‘paradoxical’ mood, he can be happy with the win whilst being concerned about the clear and obvious imperfections and shortfalls his side are still displaying six games into his tenure.
Great synopsis and read John. On the question of meterage in attack, it seemed they weren't really able to find their better carriers like Tupou and Bell too often to share the load with Wilson and Valetini. LSL and Frost didn't appear to have too many carries either, both are decent but credit to Argentina for limiting our go forward. I felt ruck speed was a little slow too which is a likely contributor. It would be good to see some good fast carries from Tizzano in attack moving forward.
I think on meterage it really is about how narrow they are carrying against rush defences Wales, South Africa and Argentina all are rush defences.
So being so narrow and playing off 9 at around the 30 defender just means the D lines get time to move up and catch them behin the gainline without a tip pass.
But, I think we will see the Wallabies attack either side of that defender this week. Either a tip ball out or the premier runner will run tighter to the ruck because that 10 defender shouldn't move and so it's almost guarenteed a gainline carry.
Ruck speed looks great according to the stats, 71% under 3 seconds!