The fictional scientists in the 1993 blockbuster Jurrasic Park use frog DNA to gap-fill broken dinosaur code extracted from prehistoric mosquitoes and fabricate their very own version of the real thing. If there is a complete DNA strand of ‘how to beat the world champions at rugby’ waiting to be discovered somewhere deep underground, frozen in amber, nobody has yet unearthed it. The All Blacks found some parts in the recent Greatest Rivalry series, the Wallabies dug up rather more at the weekend. But nobody yet has the complete code, despite Australia’s nail-biting 42-38 victory at the Optus Stadium in Perth.
NEW: Follow Your favourites in the App 📱
You can now follow their favourite teams, tournaments and players in the RugbyPass App!
There is no doubt the science is moving closer to finding an answer, and the pack are gaining ground on the Springboks. The idea there are two or even three potential South African teams waiting in the wings to bring home ‘Bill’ for a World Cup-winning three-peat next year was thoroughly exposed as the fiction it truly is.
Is Rassie Erasmus diluting the probability of South African success by over-rotating his squad? Erasmus will argue it is a legitimate and necessary measure in a 12-month, round-the-clock playing calendar where South African players are required to participate in competitions north and south of the equator. The great majority are plying their trade in URC in the north while being asked to fill the July-September window with tours and tournaments in the south.
Erasmus is right, but he is also wrong according to historical precedent. Before the 2007 World Cup, New Zealand found itself in similar territory. The All Blacks had won 22 of their previous 24 games before losing that fateful quarter-final to France in Cardiff, and the coaching panel had grown accustomed to winning with a variety of personnel.
Sir Graham Henry and co had been emboldened to ask for the withdrawal of 22 leading All Black candidates from the first half of Super Rugby, to participate in a conditioning programme for the World Cup later in the year. The post-World Cup review conducted by lawyer Mike Heron and NZ sports official Don Tricker criticised the lack of consultation with Super 14 franchises and other important shareholders in the game.
Cohesion is dearly bought but all too easy to give away. When the next World Cup spun around four years later, the policy of wholesale changes had been buried. As Henry’s assistant Sir Steve Hansen announced crisply, “I don’t know that you will see the same XV totally, we just can’t do that, but you might see the same 10 or 12 on a regular basis.” Amen to that.
Learn the lesson of 2007. It may look like the Springboks have a wealth of talent which they can swap in and out of the starting side with no adverse effect on performance, but it only looks that way. It is closer to wishful thinking than hard fact.
On Sunday, there were only two regular starters from the RGR series in Erasmus’ run-on side, with another six – including the strongest pure scrummaging front row on planet rugby – featuring on a super-powerful bench. Up until the 67th minute of the game, Les Kiss’ fast-developing Wallabies were winning comfortably, 42-17. They achieved that dominant position on the scoreboard by filling some yawning gaps in the DNA for ‘beating the Bok’ left by the All Blacks series.
New Zealand attacked well enough in that series to average 4.25 tries per game, but they came off distinctly second best at both of the major set-pieces, at the breakdown and in the aerial contestables. The DNA strand was often woefully incomplete, but the Wallabies were good enough to gap-fill most of the missing parts.
They began with a rock-solid starting scrum effort spearheaded by blockbuster hooker Brandon Paenga-Amosa. It has taken previous Wallaby coaches far too long to realise ‘BPA’ is the best hooker in Australia, and he is in the Malcolm Marx class as a scrummager. There can be no higher praise in the modern game, and the very first South African feed showed there would be no repeat of the RGR scrum demolition.
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) September 28, 2026
It is a ‘long scrum’ of around seven seconds from feed to pick-up, and Jan-Hendrik Wessels and Johan Grobbelaar are feeling the pressure, and giving ground on the left-hand side of the Springbok front row by the end of it. Given the brusque abandonment of Wessels and Zac Porthen after the first Test defeat by the All Blacks, you do have to wonder whether they have a part to play at the World Cup. Of those who have been tried over the past five matches, Ox Nche, Wilco Louw and Thomas du Toit look to be several notches ahead of any other options at prop. Likewise, it is Marx and a lot of clear air to the next candidate in the middle of the front row.
At lineout, the Wallabies reversed RGR outcomes and clearly had the best of the contest, despite the absence of luminaries Josh Canham, Nick Frost and Charlie Cale, and the presence of two veteran callers [Franco Mostert and Lood de Jager] in the opposition.
The estimable Jeremy Williams won turnovers against the Springbok lineout on the ground and in the air in the space of two minutes early in the second period.
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) September 28, 2026
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) September 28, 2026
Without a stable attacking platform from lineout, the Springbok maul never became an influential factor after a short-range try in the ninth minute dotted down by Grobbelaar, and another of the primary Springbok weapons had been effectively neutralised. Will Mostert and De Jager be ready for the fray as back-ups to Ruan Nortjé in 2027?
The outcomes at the breakdown also raised questions about the value of twin open-sides Marco van Staden and Paul de Villiers in the South African back-row. De Villiers won three turnovers on the deck but the Wallabies still won the penalty count at ruck time by eight to four. The experiment failed, and while Erasmus may be able to afford one of Van Staden or De Villiers at the World Cup, he likely cannot afford both.
The biggest shock was yet to come. The most surprising turnaround from the RGR series was the Wallaby domination of the airways, where the home side came out well ahead with 11 reclaims to six in the contestable kicking game. They won the match-ups on both sides of the field through Max Jorgenson or Joseph-Aukuso Sua’ali’i, whose move to the wing was a rip-roaring success.
The ex-Sydney Rooster star began with a superb reclaim from the opening kick-off, and then created the second try for Len Ikitau.
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) September 28, 2026
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) September 28, 2026
From a South African point of view, the second clip illustrates the huge gulf between RGR starter Damian Willemse and his back-up Aphelele Fassi in control of the skies at the back, with Sua’ali’i effortlessly establishing his physical superiority as the ball topples out of the Western Australian heavens. Jorgensen also had the better of big Ethan Hooker on the other wing.
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) September 28, 2026
The game in Perth will have done nothing to advance the claims of Fassi, Edwill van der Merwe, or for that matter Quan Horn to be part the South African squad at the World Cup. The Springboks may well have one matchday 23 which can hoist the Webb Ellis Cup for an historic third time in 12 years. But 30, or 45 players who can win it? Pull the other one.
Meanwhile the Wallabies are on the march under new head coach Kiss. He has found a world-class scrum-half and goalkicker in the shape of Ryan Lonergan, and he has stuck by Paenga-Amosa as one of the very best scrummaging hookers in the game. He had the guts to shift Sua’ali’i to his natural spot, and is developing enviable depth in the back five forwards.
The race to the World Cup is hotting up nicely. By the end of Jurassic Park, dinosaurs had exploited their frog DNA to produce new offspring. To rephrase Dr Ian Malcolm’s words, life is finding a way to close the gap on the world champions.
Your home for rugby. Download the RugbyPass app on the App Store (iOS) and Google Play (Android) now!
Follow your favourite teams, tournaments and players, and get personalised news and Match Centre notifications direct to your device.
From live rugby streams and upcoming fixtures to breaking news, in-depth analysis and live scores, RugbyPass has everything you need to stay connected to the game.
“But 30, or 45 players who can win it? Pull the other one.” Who has made the claim that the Boks have 30 or 45 players that can win the World Cup?! Not Rassie or his coaching team.
Depth is not about the ability to put three teams of equal strength on the field but to be able to replace someone in the matchday 23 for a crucial game without there being much of a drop off in quality. Given that many of the players who misfired in Perth were third or even fourth choice - Wessels (behind Ox and Steenekamp), Porthen (behind Louw and Du Toit), Jantjies (behind Vd Berg, Reinach, Williams), Pollard (behind SFM and Libbok) Mostert (behind Nortje, C Wiese and RG), E Louw (behind PSDT and Ben Jason-Dixon), Van Staden (behind J Wiese and Hanekom) - the Boks depth chart is still looking healthy in that regard.
As for the Wallabies sniffing out Bok weaknesses - this is true and you have to give them a lot of credit. However, the Boks largely nullified their own strengths - scrum, lineout, aerial prowess - by picking a front row not known for scrumming, a 15 that’s struggled under the high ball and a hooker who’s struggled with lineout throwing.
Wallabies will be playing two tests against the Boks in SA against a fully loaded and fresh Bok team in 2027. If the struggles continue then, it might be time to get concerned.
That’s a pretty fair assessment of things, Rassie is very clearly testing his depth and identifying who he can rely on in the event that any of his first team, for whatever reason, don’t make it right through to the end of next year.
Typically writing off the Boks after one Australian performance, Australia played really well, but again one swallow doesn’t make a season, Springboks are still in good shape come WC next year, Australia and NZ can get better, but so can South Africa
Exactly right. Rassie has gambled by making wholesale changes to teams throughout his tenure and it has backfired before (against Wales, Argentina, almost Scotland, and now twice against Australia). Every time the lessons learnt from those defeats gave Rassie the data he needed to make the squad stronger. Short term pain, long term gain.