The potential route to the Rugby World Cup final for the top 6 teams

World Rugby have screwed the pooch with this RWC 2027 format and “bogus” draw. Just imagine, the Boks can cruise through their 3 group games as training runs lose 2 and win 1 and end 3rd in pool B, then still fresh - play (and beat) the Scots or the Irish in the round of 16. Next, face Argentina in the QF followed by England or Australia in the SF. Setting up a final against the All Blacks. Bokbefok, this would really be something.

We need two upsets in the group stages to balance out the draw somewhat. Firstly, Australia should use their home ground advantage and catch the All Blacks cold and secondly I’d like to see Scotland can pip Ireland to top their group. Neither of these are out of the realm of possibility.

If this happens, likely matchups would then see RSA vs Aus, Eng vs NZ, Arg vs Sco, France vs Ireland and Fiji vs Wales. These would all be fairly balanced matchups (if you give Aus a boost for home ground advantage), with the first 3 happening in the Quarter-Finals and the latter 2 in the round of 16.

Would have been ideal if France vs Ireland was the other Quarter, but not really possible with the way the draw panned out, but the winner of that round of 16, would then have a significantly easier quarter (Wales/Fiji).

For the conspiracy theorists:

Was the 2023 draw different?

Yes. The 2023 world cup separated out the 4 top seeds, 4 second band etc seeds as would logically follow with a 4 pool situation.

Who were the top seeds?

So the 4 top seeds were SA/NZ/ENG/WAL

WTF were Wales doing there?

The rankings for the 2023 draw were supposed to be frozen 3 years out when top 4 were SA/NZ/ENG/IRE

Due to the fact that some countries played less rugby than others during Covid year of 2019-2020 it was decided to use the rankings at the end of the 2019 tournament ergo 4 years before.

As there was much improvement after 2019 by the likes of France, Ireland, Scotland etc. It means that the top 5 could end up fighting for 4 QF places if Murphy’s Law applied to the draw. We can agree Murphy’s Law applied

What was different in 2027?

6 Pools of 4 so 6 pool winners. They copied the soccer model of 6 pool winners which didn’t fit the knockout 2^^x model. It doesn’t matter in soccer as all the top 6 and beyond are contenders. In rugby the depth is not as defined and it would have been better to apply a different albeit more complicated system to accommodate that.

That would be more susceptible to questions, conspiracy theories perhaps.

They are the facts as far as I’m aware.

It is long way to the start of RWC and many things can happens. There is this new competition and will be a Rugby Championship in 2027. We are talking injuries, suspensions , change of coaches, ect. With the picture we have today I agree with most of the comments on ABs and SA having a heavier road than France and England. But I think that you must develop depth in order to make it to the finals and there I think SA has an advantage.

It is a shame there is not a Plate and Bowl comp. Just 2 extra games.

England struck gold. Only 2nd choice pack needed til SF

And we're back to the usual World Rugby fiasco. From what I can see this is almost as bad as 2023, which is quite an achievement for the fish-heads. They must be very proud.

The two teams they have punished, then the two teams they have privileged.

1. New Zealand. Equal worst draw in RWC history, as bad as SA's in 2023, which was atrocious. They have to play what will likely be a hard game against Australia, possibly first up, the best and most physically demanding of the band 2 teams, a team that will improve between now and 2027. If NZ win, in the worst single piece of draw management in RWC history, as likely number 2 or 3 in the world they will have to play likely number 1 South Africa in a quarter final, which will be apocalyptic. Then a semi against another physically punishing team, France, likely number 4 or 5. Then likely number 3 or 2 England. If they reach the final they will be exhausted, having played 3 hard games. England won't be as tough as SA, but given that England will be very fresh, there will be little possibility of winning.

If NZ lose against Aussie they will likely have to play number 3 or 2 England in the quarter. Win there and they should however get into the final, only having to play a wildly erratic Argentina or a badly fading Ireland. They will also be a lot better shape in the final, having only played 2 hard games and not played SA. They could win on that route.

2. South Africa. In principle they have a tough pair of pool opponents, Italy and Georgia, but in all likelihood both will focus on each other rather than them. They will however be in the same situation as NZ after that, with likely world number 2 or 3 NZ in a quarter, then likely 4 or 5 France, then likely 2 or 3 England in the final, having played 2 hard games, and having had to beat NZ in a quarter. They won't be in as poor a state as NZ, but will be well behind England. And unlike NZ, there is no possibility of them being pushed to the other, much easier side of the draw.

3. England. Far and away the winner in the draw. If Wales don't make a major improvement in the next two years their group will be a joke. A round of 16 game against Italy will likely be only marginally more difficult. They will have a hard game against Australia or NZ in the quarter, but they will only have to play a wildly erratic Argentina or a badly fading Ireland in the semi. To get to the final they will only have to play one hard game, and will be in a very good state.

4. Argentina. A competitive group game against Fiji will be followed by an easy round of 16 game, then a quarter against a badly fading Ireland. A hard game likely against England will follow, but to get to the final that is the likely only hard game they will have to play.

In order to rectify this fiasco and save their blushes, World Rugby will be hoping that

A. NZ fade to fourth or worse, so they won't end up with a 1 v 2 or 3 quarter final farce. Unlikely.

B. France fall apart, and are well outside the Top 4 and are no real threat to the survivor of SA v NZ. Unlikely.

C. Wales improve significantly and are a proper opponent for England. Unlikely.

D. Italy make significant improvements and provide a much tougher game for England than they currently are capable of giving them. Unlikely.

E. Argentina and Ireland make significant improvements and impose a hard game in England in the semi. Unlikely.

South Africa 50% chance of winning RWC 2027, down 10%, England 40%, up 30%, NZ 10%, down 20%.

What a horrific draw and world cup structure. Every pool is so easy, there will be no surprise knock outs.. and even if there was a chance of something interesting happening, they’d be into the pointless round of 16. The first 70% of the world cup will be so meaningless it wont even be worth watching.

What is world rugby up to

Ouch that’s a nightmare draw for South Africa, lucky for everyone else theyve been handicapped.

Whats with the third placed finishers playing multiple different teams? If i believed it I’d have to change my mind and select whoever is playing two QFs at once.

they will play third place from Pool B, Pool E or Pool F

lead to a round of 16 meeting with the third place from either Pool D, Pool E or Pool F.

Lets hope the guys from E and F finish first and second!

Common guys spell it out. Lacking the relevant information all the way through this media drive. Terrible.

Do we assume that the 3rd place finishers are assigned in order starting at Pool A? New Zealand or Australia will be hoping that either Wales or Tonga and finish top on points (3rd best), and that they take top draw for a good match up in Ro16. Perhaps even more importantly, doing so will take away the chance that SA can have any decent hit out before their elimination QF, as thankfully (for NZ and Aus) Samoa is on the other side. Perhaps Uruguay will be a good hitout by then though?

So 1 and 2 in the world meet in QF. What genius came up with this. World rankings are just a waste of time

France, England and Argentina three top seeds with considerably easier draws overall.

I thought the seeding system was supposed to push the top teams to opposite sides of the draw? And now we see South Africa and NZ in a likely QF. So as usual world rugby have stuffed it up just like last time.

What a ridiculous scenario for pool A! Whoever wins between Australia and the ABs gets the route from hell with SA first up, followed by France, and then England. Arguably teams 1, 2 and 3 in the World. Once again, it pays to lose a pool game. Aus & NZ might as well play their 2nd stringers for their match up and help the opposition score. What a shame. I can’t see either NZ or Aus getting through that line up, unfortunately.

Argentina could genuinely make their first final.

Ireland will have trouble getting beyond the QF again

Poms have the easiest route - said it all along they will contest the Final.

We need to know who the refs will be!

This is equally important in plotting a deep run in the tournament.