The major caveat hanging over the Springboks' defeat in Perth

Australia deserved every second of its celebration in Perth. The Wallabies scored five tries against the world champions, led 42-17 with a quarter of an hour left, and somehow survived the closing minutes with four players in the sin bin. Len Ikitau was outstanding, Joseph-Aukuso Sua’ali’i helped win the aerial contest, and Les Kiss’s side looked quicker and more forceful for most of the match. The 42-38 final score flatters South Africa and there can be no question that the deserving team took the spoils.

It may prove an important night for Australian rugby. A home World Cup is approaching, and this was a victory around which players and supporters can build belief. The Guardian described it as the match Australian rugby needed. One could make the case that it is the best result in Australian rugby for over a decade. But that is looking at this story from David’s perspective. For Goliath, it is but a flesh wound.

It would be a mistake to assume that this upset carries equal weight for South Africa, or that one spectacular Sunday has redrawn the map of world rugby.

Rassie Erasmus changed 13 of his starters from the side that comprehensively beat New Zealand in Baltimore to complete a 3-1 series victory against their oldest and most respected foes. Only Eben Etzebeth – who is transitioning more to an impact player – and Ethan Hooker – still finding his feet on the wing – kept their places. Pieter-Steph du Toit and Damian de Allende had gone home after a demanding run of matches. Erasmus knew exactly what a relatively settled and motivated Australian side might do to unfamiliar Bok combinations on their own patch.

Calling this a C team would be an exaggeration. There were World Cup winners on the field and considerable power on the bench. But it was an experimental team playing the two weeks after the emotional peak of beating the All Blacks across four Tests. Expecting the Boks to dig as deep, to climb the same psychological highs against the Wallabies, was wildly optimistic.

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Australia, by contrast, regarded this one-off friendly as an Everest. This was an opportunity to measure its progress against the world champions at home, a year before hosting the World Cup. The difference in urgency was understandable.

That context explains some of what happened. It does not excuse all of it. Australia caught the Boks in the air, met them in the collisions and denied them their customary advantage at the scrum until the chaotic finish. The Springboks were 25 points behind against 15 players. Their late three-try surge was stirring, albeit against a depleted defence, but it cannot be used to rewrite the preceding hour.

Erasmus did not try to rewrite it either. “We rolled the dice a bit,” he said afterwards, acknowledging that some players had not played together in a long time. He also conceded that the better team won. That is an honest account from a coach who chose to test the edges of his squad and found some of them less secure than he might have hoped.

There is a difference between learning that and discovering a crisis. In case anyone at the back needs reminding, Erasmus has won two World Cups and a Lions series. His side has just beaten the All Blacks three times in four meetings. One defeat in Perth, however deserved, will scarcely alter the faith placed in him. He will treat it like a drunk driver treats a pothole: a sudden jolt, then onward, though perhaps with a closer look at what was damaged.

There are things to inspect. Johan Grobbelaar scored from a maul and offered a sound contribution at hooker, while Paul de Villiers won three breakdown penalties. Yet the starting front row did not impose the usual Bok terms on the scrum. At lock, Etzebeth remained influential, but the wider question of who can sustain that standard matters as the World Cup approaches. These are selection and succession questions, not proof that the Springboks have suddenly run out of forwards.

The backs present a more immediate lesson about combinations. Herschel Jantjies and Handré Pollard were reunited after limited recent time together. Jantjies had moments, and Pollard’s pass helped create Edwill van der Merwe’s try, but the pair could not give South Africa consistent control while Australia dictated the contest. Canan Moodie’s error then presented Max Jorgensen with a long run to the line. The centres and halfbacks may each be good enough individually. Perth showed how much their timing and support play matter when a defence puts them under sustained pressure.

There was a reconnaissance mission in this trip too. The Boks spent time in Perth around the facilities being prepared for next year’s tournament, and Erasmus said the encounter had given his side a useful taste of an opponent they might meet in a World Cup knockout game. That is a more credible reading than suggesting the defeat has exposed an irreversible flaw.

In cricket terms, imagine Australia winning the Ashes against England 4-1, then sending a heavily changed side to lose a one-off Test in Sri Lanka (ranked seventh in the world in their sport, just like the Wallabies). The result would be cherished by the hosts and would tell the tourists something about their depth. Few would make it the defining event of the cricket calendar.

Australia earned this win. South Africa should take its lessons seriously. But if these sides meet again at the World Cup with both coaches choosing their strongest available XV, Perth’s result will prove to be little more than a footnote.