The Gallagher PREM play-off permutations going into this weekend matches

Northampton Saints are the only side who can mathematically secure a Gallagher PREM play-off spot this weekend, with the rest of the field dependent on results rolling into the final rounds.

Phil Dowson’s side head into the round with a range of scenarios that could confirm qualification, though none that would lock in a home semi-final at this stage.

The most straightforward route is a bonus-point win, which would guarantee Northampton a place in the top four regardless of other results.

A regulation four-point victory could also be enough, but only if at least one of several results elsewhere goes their way. Saints would qualify if Bristol Bears take fewer than three points from their fixture, if Exeter Chiefs fail to claim a bonus-point win, or if Leicester Tigers do not secure at least two bonus points.

There remains a narrower pathway through drawn outcomes. A three-point draw would confirm Northampton’s play-off spot if Pat Lam’s Bristol collect fewer than two points or Exeter also fail to reach two points.

Gallagher Premiership

P

W

L

D

PF

PA

PD

BP T

BP-7

BP

Total

1

Northampton

14

12

1

1

62

2

Bath

14

11

3

0

58

3

Leicester

14

10

4

0

52

4

Exeter Chiefs

14

8

5

1

49

5

Bristol

14

10

4

0

48

6

Saracens

14

7

7

0

42

7

Sale

14

4

10

0

27

8

Gloucester

14

3

11

0

21

9

Harlequins

14

3

11

0

16

10

Newcastle

14

1

13

0

7

A two-point draw, or even a two-point defeat, could still be sufficient; but only in the event both Bristol and Exeter pick up no points from their respective games.

Anything less won’t do it for Saints. A one-point return or a zero-point loss would eliminate their chances of securing qualification this weekend, forcing them to rely on later rounds.

While Northampton are the only side capable of locking in a play-off berth, they cannot yet guarantee a home semi-final. That race remains open, with multiple teams still in contention for a top-two finish depending on how results fall across the next two rounds.

Significantly, no other Gallagher PREM side can confirm qualification this weekend. Even those currently above or around the top four lack the points buffer or favourable permutations required to make it mathematically certain at this stage of the season.

That leaves the play-off picture unresolved beyond Northampton’s potential early entry. The remainder of the chasing pack are still locked into a week-by-week battle heading into the final stretch.