Three World Rugby Rankings could fall as Nations Championship resumes

With all but one of the top 25 teams in action this weekend in the Nations Championship and Nations Cup, there could be multiple changes to the World Rugby Men’s Rankings, as the countdown to RWC 2027 continues.

Unless South Africa suffer a shock defeat at the hands of injury-hit Italy in Genoa, the status quo at the top will remain the same, with the Springboks remaining in first and the All Blacks in second. South Africa can only be toppled at the top if they fail to win.

Even if they suffer a first-ever loss to Scotland, the All Blacks won’t drop down the rankings, as Ireland in third can’t pick up enough points with a win over Argentina in the weekend’s Friday night curtain raiser to make up the deficit.

However, a combination of events could lead to a new team occupying third place, with France, England, Scotland and Australia potentially in contention to sit directly behind rugby’s ‘greatest’ rivals.

For France to replace Ireland as the world’s third best team, Les Bleus need Argentina to do them a favour and win in Dublin on Friday night, and then go and beat Fiji in Lyon the next day.

Third is also within England’s grasp, as a loss for Ireland at home to Argentina coupled with a home win over Australia at Twickenham two days later would result in a two-place gain. Equally, England could drop as low as eighth. For that to happen, Ireland would need to win by more than 15 points and England suffer the same fate.

Meanwhile, Australia will become the higher-ranked of the two nations in victory and could go as high as third if they and Argentina win by more than 15 points and France also lose to Fiji, which, given the injuries Les Bleus have, is not unthinkable. The Wallabies have not been as high as third since November 2021.

Scotland’s all-time high of fifth could be matched or even broken this weekend if they pull off an historic win over the All Blacks at Murrayfield on Saturday afternoon, although Ireland, France and England would all have to be beaten as well for third place to be achieved.

With just 0.15 points and two places separating tenth-place Wales and 12th-place Japan in the rankings, a place in the top 10 hinges on the outcome at the Principality Stadium in Cardiff.

Since the start of the year, Wales and Japan have traded places four times and it will happen again this weekend if the Brave Blossoms prevail in Cardiff.

Wales have been the higher-ranked of the teams for more weeks to date in 2026 (33 weeks to Japan’s 12). But Eddie Jones’ team will return to the top 10 in victory, unless Italy upset world champions South Africa

In the Nations Cup, Chile are chasing an all-time high of 14th. Los Condores need to beat Portugal, who currently occupy that spot, to climb two places and break new ground.

It is also a potentially big weekend for Samoa. If the result goes against them in their inaugural clash with Zimbabwe in Wakefield, the former Rugby World Cup quarter-finalists, once ranked as high as seventh, will drop out of the world’s top 20 for the first time in the 23-year history of the rankings.

Men’s World Rugby Rankings Top 20

1. South Africa – 93.09
2. New Zealand – 92.27
3. Ireland – 88.08
4. France – 87.43
5. England – 85.68
6. Scotland – 84.78
7. Australia – 84.43
8. Argentina – 82.24
9. Fiji – 77.85
10. Wales – 76.38
11. Italy – 76.30
12. Japan – 76.23
13. Georgia – 73.94
14. Portugal – 69.39
15. USA – 67.58
16. Chile – 66.94
17. Spain – 66.83
18. Uruguay – 65.75
19. Tonga – 65.14
20. Samoa – 64.73