The biggest handbrake on the Wallabies’ momentum ahead of their Bledisloe Cup bid

Selection has been one of Wallabies coach Les Kiss’s strongest traits, but that strength is about to be hamstrung by one unyielding fact: the World
Rugby Regulation 9 window is now closed.

Regulation 9, which provides official release windows for overseas players to return to their national sides, is not in effect for the Bledisloe Cup series in October, and it means the Wallabies are without two of their best and most impactful forwards, Taniela Tupou and Tom Hooper, for the two toughest matches of 2026.

There’s no two ways about it: the Tests against the second-best team in the world, the All Blacks, are the two hardest matches the Wallabies will play all year.

Not only will the All Blacks be desperate to retain the Bledisloe Cup after a disappointing Greatest Rivalry Tour, but they won’t be fielding a heavily rotated side as the Boks did in Perth.

Meanwhile, the Wallabies will be without two of their best, not to mention a host of other big-name players.

Hoisting the Bledisloe Cup is the Wallabies’ Everest, their holy grail, and while lifting the World Cup in 2027 would be the pinnacle, ask any Aussie which piece of silverware they would prefer in Rugby Australia’s cabinet, and they would stop and think about it.

On the surface, the Wallabies seem to have all the right cards to enter the Bledisloe Cup race with confidence and momentum, but the closing of the Regulation 9 window, injuries, and suspensions will mean the bad type of selection headaches for Kiss and his assistants.

The loss of Tupou and Hooper, the four week/match ban imposed on Hunter Paisami for a high tackle on Sacha Fienberg-Mngomezulu, as well as the
injuries within the group, all shine a sharp light on the shallow Wallaby depth.

It also shines a light on a bigger, undeniable, and underlying problem: overseas selection policies and availability.

Hypothetically, had everyone been fit and available, the absence of a Regulation 9 window would prevent the likes of Will Skelton and Langi Gleeson from joining the Wallabies for the series, as they wouldn’t be released by their French Top 14 clubs.

It should be noted, however, that they are both currently nursing long-term injuries and are therefore also unavailable for selection.

This fact aside, another selection hurdle would be reached because RA has an internal policy to only select three overseas players at a time.

So even if Skelton and Gleeson were fit, coach Kiss would have to make a choice of just three players from those two as well as Tupou and Hooper.

Alternatively, Kiss would have to ask RA CEO Phil Waugh to agree to an exception being made to the policy.

With all the momentum behind the Wallabies, it would be a bizarre move by RA to cut Kiss off at the knees in this hypothetical instance.

To take this hypothetical through to conclusion, if all players were fit and available and a Regulation 9 window was not in effect, let’s say sometime in 2027, then the Wallabies would be without Skelton, Gleeson, Tupou, Hooper, and Japan-based Mark Nawaqanitawase, Hunter Paisami, Jock Campbell, Jordan Petaia, and Samu Kerevi.

That’s nine players the Wallabies’ matchday 23 could benefit a lot from, should they all be in form and uninjured, so which three does Kiss choose?

Now that the hypothetical is over, the facts remain: Paisami is under suspension, Skelton and Gleeson are unavailable due to injury, and OS selection issues, Hooper and Tupou are likewise removed.

Nevertheless, this selection issue is a problem that remains and is a present one for the Wallabies: they can’t be a growing global threat or be the best they can be if almost a third of a match day 23 are unavailable for games like these Bledisloe matches due to falling outside of a Regulation 9 window.

The Wallabies don’t and won’t have that depth for several years yet, and unless RA and the Rugby Union Players’ Association (RUPA) agree on increased wages in their current deliberations, this issue is likely to be exacerbated after the carrot of a home Rugby World Cup disappears in 2028.

How this all lands presently, with the Wallabies set to march on the All Blacks’ fortress, Eden Park, is that Kiss, who has been so good at selection until this point, has had his hands tied by powers greater than his own.

These are selection hindrances Kiss and the Wallabies can ill afford if they genuinely want to challenge for the Bledisloe this year.

It takes the wind out of the Wallabies’ sails regarding momentum, and it considerably changes the optics of this clash.

Instead of the Wallabies going to Eden Park from a position of strength with a cohesive, battle-hardened unit, they go to the All Blacks’ spiritual home with the ambition of an upset with what looks to be a heavily rotated and depleted side.

No Tupou, Hooper, Paisami, and a nervous wait to see if young gun second rower Josh Canham recovers from his hamstring complaint, as well as Len Ikitau from his ankle injury, could see at least four changes to the Wallabies matchday squad from the one that ran out against the Boks.

These changes could also see as many as 10 changes to the matchday 23, with a few new faces entering the fray as well as a reshuffle on the bench.

We know now what changes can do to a side as deep and elite as the back-to-back world champion Springboks; it will almost certainly have a similar effect on the now sixth-ranked Wallabies.

While all the focus appears to be on the centre pairing, with Paisami definitely missing out and Ikitau also unlikely to recover in time for Eden Park, the true gut punch comes from the unavailability of Hooper and Tupou for the Bledisloe series.

The Wallabies’ forward pack has been their source of strength, scoring a majority of their tries so far in 2026, and it has come from strong podwork and great set piece numbers.

While losing a strong game driver in Paisami and also likely losing a world- class operator in Ikitau are hard pills to swallow, the Wallabies’ forward pack is currently the heart of this side.

It is such a shame to see this strength be taken away by a mere club rugby commitment in the face of making history.

However, it would be remiss not to mention the fact that performances as a broader 34-man squad are trending in the right direction.

Against the Springboks, the Wallabies scored the most points to date in 2026 against a higher-ranked side by 9 points, scoring 33 points against the then third-ranked Ireland.

They banked their second-highest defensive success rate against the Boks at 87%, and their second-highest post-contact metres per carry at 2.2m per
carry (they banked 2.4m against Ireland).

The Wallabies also secured their second-most linebreaks with nine against the Boks, only second to their efforts against Ireland, where they had 10.

They scored the equal most tries (5) to date this season and kicked the most penalty goals (3).

Their set piece numbers haven’t wavered either, with both the scrum and the lineout operating well over an impressive average of 90%.

Although Kiss has been very shrewd in the way he has mixed and matched his squad during his five-game tenure, almost all of his ‘experimentation’
(he doesn’t like that word) has been done on his terms, with an injury here and there, and it has been against lesser or depleted teams.

The All Blacks are likely to select a side not dissimilar from the team that took the field against the Springboks in Baltimore for the final match in the
Greatest Rivalry Tour.

While Argentina were missing more than 12 of their regular starters due to rest protocols and Rassie Erasmus gambled by making 13 changes to his Boks side from his victorious Greatest Rivalry team, the All Blacks will be at relatively full strength.

The only truly significant exclusions will be their two irreplacbles: captain Ardie Savea and regular flyhalf Ruben Love.

There are a few more players, such as Dave Rennie’s diamond in the rough, Luke Jacobson, but only these two players above are genuinely
irreplaceable in the All Blacks’ matchday 23.

What is positive from a team-building perspective and a performance perspective is that Kiss is appearing to be close to finding his preferred 23-
man matchday squad.

But now with suspensions, injuries, and World Rugby regulations, he can’t choose it for the Bledisloe series.

In October, Kiss is once again going to have to be shrewd in his selections.

Kiss leads by action as well as words, backing himself, his coaching team and his players, and instilling the same self-belief in his group of young men.

However, while Kiss and his men have only shown strength and determination in the face of adversity, some challenges are too great to surmount.

With key players injured, suspended, and now halfway across the world and unable to be called upon, the Wallabies seem to be scaling the Bledisloe Everest without oxygen or a pickaxe; it’s doable, but nigh impossible.