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Super Rugby Power Rankings: It's the finals countdown
With the playoff teams all but locked in already, it’s time to focus on the teams still jockeying for position. Here are Scotty Stevenson’s power rankings as the Super Rugby season gets serious.
1. Crusaders (N/C)
The Crusade marches on thanks to an anticipated big win over the Rebels in Melbourne last weekend. Individually, the Crusaders players are starting to climb up the attack rankings which bodes well for a couple of classic derbies to finish the season. David Havili became the second player behind Damien McKenzie to pass 1000 running metres last week (Havili leads every key attack stat for the Crusaders except offloads) and the Crusaders are the only side to boast three players inside the top ten ‘most elusive’ list. Havili, Mo’unga and Bridge are all on that list. The Crusaders have been forced to make just 93 tackles per game this year, which is a competition low. Highlanders need to hold the ball this week to beat them.
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https://twitter.com/crusadersrugby/status/868430038701453312
2. Lions (up 1)
Hate to say this, New Zealand fans, but in the spirit of power rankings this isn’t just about where the Lions are, it’s also about where they are heading. They have two games remaining and one is an absolute training run against the Moondogs this week. The Lions have the most ruthless and efficient lineout in the competition, which is key given almost 40% of all competition tries this season have originated from this phase. For the Lions, that figure is closer to 50%. The Lions have a 78% success rate from the tee, too, which is higher than any of the other top teams. Forget who they have played and who they haven’t. The Lions are the real deal with or without the ball.
3. Hurricanes (down 1)
The Hurricanes should account for the Force without too much fuss this week, but the importance of this clash cannot be underestimated. The Hurricanes finish against the Chiefs and Crusaders – the only two sides to have beaten them this season. A win against the Force gives the Hurricanes a buffer on the Highlanders and may prove the difference between finishing the regular season in fifth spot or in sixth (the ridiculousness of that is lost on no one, by the way). Why is that important? Because the fifth-place finisher will travel to Australia. The sixth-place finisher must go to South Africa. That would suck so badly.
https://twitter.com/Hurricanesrugby/status/869435516416020482
4. Highlanders (up 1)
Nine consecutive victories have placed the Highlanders into serious finals contention. That is a dead set miracle after starting the season 1-3. The secret to this side’s success is its ability to take a pounding in every match – defensively speaking. There is no team that kicks more or that has more faith in its pack to dominate other teams with tackles. They make more tackles per game than any other side, and seem to enjoy it. Which is frightening. The Highlanders win fewer lineouts than any other side, which is not because their success rate is bad. They just don’t like kicking the ball out. Massive test of resolve this week against the Crusaders.
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5. Chiefs (down 1)
If you didn’t scratch your eyes out watching last Friday’s match against the Blues, then you are a better person than I am. The Chiefs are struggling to connect the dots this season. They have form in so many areas but keep undoing their own good work. Their scrum penalty rate is killing them, and their breakdown turnover concession rate is stifling their ability to build phases. The transition offence of Damien McKenzie was under pressure in the wet last week, which exposed the Chiefs in other parts of their game. The penalty count is mounting as well, which adds to this team’s obvious frustration. They have some extra motivation this week with Stephen Donald playing his 100th match for the Chiefs.
6. Sharks (N/C)
The Sharks are the most confounding team in the competition. Just when you think they are going to fold, they find a way to win. The Sharks will play at home against the Bulls and the Lions to finish the season and – bold prediction – they could win both. Two things plague the Sharks: they turn the ball over more than any other team and they struggle to balance their kicking and running games. More running, less kicking would be good advice if they didn’t have such Pinocchio hands. They can’t get a home playoff game so that could well be their undoing. However, if they are against another South African side in the quarters, they could well be the surprise package.
https://twitter.com/TheSharksZA/status/868744296379404288
7. Stormers (up 1)
Have the Cheetahs, Sunwolves and Bulls to finish the season and simply have to win them all for their own sake. They can’t be topped in the conference but after the disastrous New Zealand tour, a loss to the Sharks last weekend would have shaken this team. They are now at risk of finishing as fourth qualifier which all but guarantees they will face a New Zealand side in the playoffs. Which would not be good for the Stormers. Not good at all.
8. Brumbies (up 4)
The Brumbies were desperate for a win against the Jags and credit where it is due, they certainly did the job. The Jags have totally blown this season. The Brumbies result proved nothing more than that the Jags know it. Despite the fact they now have a buffer against the Waratahs they aren’t completely out of the woods yet. In saying that the Rebels and the Reds are their next two opponents. They should be able to wrap things up over the next couple of rounds. It won’t matter in the long run.
SPECIAL MENTION: Waratahs
Still a faint hope of making the playoffs if the Brumbies find some way to completely bottle it over the next couple of weeks, and if the Waratahs can somehow find a way to pull off a win in Hamilton. That is highly unlikely, but I don’t trust the Waratahs.
Comments on RugbyPass
I like this, but ultimately rugby already has enough trophies. Trying to make more games “consequential" might prove to be a fools errand, although this is a less bad idea than some others. Minor quibble with the title of the article; it isn’t very meaningful to say the boks are the unofficial world champions when it would be functionally impossible for the Raeburn trophy not to be held by the world champions. There’s a period of a few months every 4 years when there is no “unofficial” world champion, and the Raeburn trophy is held by the actual world champions.
8 Go to commentsIts a great idea but one that I dont think will have a lot of traction. It will depend on the prestige that they each hold but if you can do that it would be great. When Japan beat the Boks (my team) I was absolutely devestated but I wont deny the great game they played that day. We were outclassed and it was one of the best games of rugby I have seen. Using an idea like this you might just give the the underdog teams more of an opportunity to beat the big teams and I can absolutely see it being a brilliant display of rugby. They beat us because they planned for that game. It was a great moment for Japan. This way we can remove the 4 year wait and give teams something to aim for outside of World Cup years.
8 Go to commentsHi, Dave here. Happy to answer questions 🥰
8 Go to commentsDon’t think that headline is accurate. It’s great to see Aus doing better but I’m not sure they’ve shown much threat to the top of the table. They shouldn’t be inflating wins against the lousy Highlanders and Crusaders either.
3 Go to commentsSuch a shame Roigard and Aumua picked up long term injuries, probably the two form players in the comp. Also, pretty sure Clarke Dermody isn’t their coach. Got it half right though.
3 Go to commentsOh the Aussie media, they never learn. At least Andrew Kellaway is like “Woah, yeah it’s great, but settle down there guys” having endured years of the Aussie media, fans, and often their players getting ahead of themselves only to fall flat on their faces. Have the “We'll win the Bledisloe for sure this year!” headlines started yet? It’s simple to see what’s going on. The Aussie teams are settled, they didn't lose any of their major players overseas. The Crusaders and Chiefs lost key experienced All Blacks, and Razor in the Crusaders case, and clearly neither are anywhere near as strong as last year (The Canes and Blues would probably be 3rd & 4th if they were). The Highlanders are annually average, even more so post-Aaron Smith and a big squad clean out. The two teams at the top? The two nz sides with largely the same settled roster as last year, except Ardie Savea for the Canes. They’ve both got far better coaches now too. If the Aussies are going to win the title, this is the year the kiwi sides will be weakest, so they better take their chance.
3 Go to commentsThe World Cup has to be the gold standard, line in the sand. 113 teams compete for what is the opportunity to make the pool stages, and then the knockout games for the trophy. The concept is sound. This must have been the rationale when the World Cup was created, surely? But I’m all for Looking forward and finding new ways for the SH to dominate the NH into the future. The autumn series needs a change up. Let’s start by having the NH teams come south every odd year for the Autumn/Spring series games?
8 Go to commentsWhat’ll happen when the AI models of the future go back in time and try to destroy the AI models of the past standing in their way of certain victory?
41 Go to commentsThanks, Nick. We (Seanny Maloney, Brett and I) just discussed Charlie as a potential Wallaby No 8, and wondered if he has truly realised how big he is in contact (and whether he can add 5 kg w/o slowing down). Your scouting report confirms our suspicions he has the materiel. No one knows if he has the mentality (as Johann van Graan said this week about CJ, Duane and Alfie B) to carry 10-15 times a game.
57 Go to commentsHe would be a great player for the Stormers, Dobbo should approach the guy.
3 Go to commentsGood article. A few years back when he was playing for the Cheetahs, he was a quiet standout for exactly the seasons stated here. I occasionally get to see his games in the UK, and he has become a more complete player and in many ways like an Irish player. His work ethic is so suitable to the Leinster game. I wonder if Rassie would have him listed somewhere.
3 Go to commentsResults probably skewed by the fact that a few clubs have foreign fly halves in their 30s, but most teams have young English scrum halves. Results also likely to be skewed by the fact that many teams rely on centres and fullbacks to provide depth at 10, whereas they will need to stock a large number of specialist backup 9s.
1 Go to commentsI really get the sense that when all is said and done, the path of least resistance will end up being a merger of Wasps & Worcester that essentially kills the Worcester Warriors brand and sees Wasps permanently playing at Sixways. I’m not saying that’s what should happen or what I want to happen. I just think it’s the easiest rout to take and therefore, will be what happens. Wasps will definitely return to play first, and I suppose it all depends on if they can find support at Sixways. If people turn up and support Wasps in that community, at that ground, I bet they drop the Sevenoaks plan and just remain at Sixways. Under the radar but not totally unrelated, it looks as though London Irish are going to be brought back from the dead by a German consortium and look set to return, likely to the remade Championship. It’s set to have 12 clubs next season with 14 in 2025/26, what do you want to bet those extra 2 are Wasps and London Irish?
3 Go to commentsThe shoulder is a “joint” with multiple bones. You don’t “fracture” a shoulder, you fracture any one or more of the bones that make up a shoulder.
2 Go to commentsOh dear, bones too suspect to continue?
2 Go to commentsBold headline considering the Canes and Blues are 1 and 2 and the Brumbies were soundly beaten by the Chiefs and Blues. Biggest surprise is Rebels 4 Crusaders 12 - no one saw that coming. If Aus are improving that’s great 👍
3 Go to commentsAnna, You are right, we need to have patience whilst the others catch up to England and France. Also it is the PWR that has been the game changer for England. the RFU put money into that initially at the expense of the Red Roses. I was sceptical at first but it has paid off in spades.
1 Go to commentsI think Matt Proctor became a 1 test AB in the same fixture. Cameron is quality and has been great this season, can’t believe’s he only 27. Realistically how would he not be selected for ABs squad this year. Only Dmac is ahead of him as a specialist 10. With Jordan out, it will come down to where and when Beauden Barrett slots back in, and where they want to play Ruben Love. Cameron seems an absolute lock in for the wider squad though. Added benefit of TJ-Cameron-Jordie combination at 9, 10, 11 too.
1 Go to commentsFarcical, to what end would someone want to pay to keep this thing going.
1 Go to commentsHavili, our best 12 by a mile, will be in the squad, if he stays fit. JB is the most overrated AB in the last 50 years.
61 Go to comments