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What the stats say about Billy Burns and the player Ulster have on their hands
The signing of the 24-year-old looks on the surface to be a canny pick up by Ulster rugby. Burns, Irish-qualified with over 100 appearances for Gloucester despite his age, will add some considerable experience and quality to Ulster at flyhalf.
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He can cover a number of positions across the backline, namely at out-half and at full back. In this piece we want to dig down into Burns’ performances over the last two seasons at out-half in particular.
The reasoning behind looking into the last two seasons only is because he was getting consistent game time for Gloucester at 10. His appearances were scattered from 2014 when he made his Aviva Premiership bow against Worcester Warriors until the 2015/16 season.
Billy played 29 times last season with a healthy 24 starts over the 2017/18 season. However, we will only consider his performances at 10 because including performances at fullback can bias the numbers. For example, you would expect a fullback to have more metres run over a match than an out-half as they sit back guarding the back field against kicks in behind with free space to run into.
Below we can see his overall scoring statistics covering 55 games at 10 over the last two seasons. What jumps out here is the number of conversions, penalties scored and the number of tries he has assisted in.
The former Cherry and Whites out-half doesn’t score a huge amount of tries but he is a reliable kicker when called upon. It is encouraging to see 22 try assists over the last two seasons which should help bring out the best in Ulster’s backline.
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If we check his attacking performances over the last 55 games below, we find more encouraging statistics for Ulster supporters. He has an impressive average of 4.2 metre per run across two seasons.
Burns has a pretty decent record in relation to clean breaks, defenders beaten and offloads with 26, 48 and 19 respectively.
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Looking at his defence over the last 2 seasons in the image above, we do find a slight chink in the armour with an average of 1 turnover conceded a game over 55 games. His tackle completion percentage is actually not too bad with 82% overall. He made 336 tackles with 73 tackles missed. That gives us an average of about 6 tackles.
That isn’t to say that Burns doesn’t roll up the sleeves at times when it comes to defence. In contrast Billy made an outrageous 19 tackles with 2 missed in a 24-19 win against Worcester warriors in 2017. That’s a tackle success rate of 90%.
Discipline is another area of strength for the youngster with only 8 penalties given away over 3493 minutes which gives us about 1 penalty conceded every 437 minutes.
Digging down deeper into individual seasons, we find a huge discrepancy with 26 penalties scored in the 2016/17 season but only 3 scored last season. The explanation for this small amount of penalties scored last season was because Billy Twelvetrees and Owen Williams were primarily given the kicking duties.
It must be noted that in the 2016/17 season, Burns had to contend with Twelvetrees, James Hook and Greg Laidlaw for the kicking responsibilities but still amassed quite a number of conversions and penalties. There is some consistency to be found with 3 tries and 11 try assists made in each season.
His metres per run performance decreased from 4.8m to 3.6m for the 2017/18 season. The number of clean breaks dropped by 4 but there was an increase in the number of defenders beaten by 10. He tripled the amount of offloads he made last season from the 2016/17 season.
Counterintuitively despite playing in 28 games last season compared to 27 games in the previous season, we find that Billy’s minutes played at flyhalf were actually lower than the previous season. He played 1716 minutes last season compared to 1777 minutes in the previous season at 10.
Burns has underperformed in terms of defence this season giving away 9 more turnovers with 32 conceded last season. His tackle success rate also decreased from the 2016/17 season to the 2017/18 season going from 85% to 80% respectively.
The Bath-born out-half improved in terms of discipline conceding only 2 penalties last season compared to 6 in the previous season. Also Burns received no yellow or red cards over two seasons despite playing 55 games.
With Cipriani having just signed for Gloucester, Burns might have found himself coming on from the bench more often. Ulster were lacking an experienced out-half to steer the ship and he seems to tick all the boxes. Burns wants to play at the highest level and through a paternal grandparent, he could well find himself with an opportunity to show what he is capable of on the international stage.
All things considered, this seems like a sensible conclusion for all parties involved.
Comments on RugbyPass
Eye gouging seems like such a strong term for what can only be described as a poke in the eye. When I think of eye gouging I think of someone trying to intentionally pop someone’s eyeball out. it’s like calling a high-tackle attempted decapitation.
3 Go to commentsGreat article. No insights to add, just wanted to say that. :)
1 Go to commentsLeinster are going to win the world cup.
13 Go to commentsSuper Rugby desperately needs to lose at least 2, but up to 4 teams. Rebels quietly going bankrupt would have made that a bit easier. Teams like the Rebels and Force serve only to weaken Australian Rugby and Super Rugby more widely. In 13 years in the comp the Rebels are yet to win more games than they lose in a season, have never finished in the top half of the competition, and have come dead last a number of times. The Western Force, barring a brief stint of mediocrity under John Mitchell from 2007-2009 have been even worse. Sadly it’s hard to see a future for Moana Pasifika in Super Rugby. Likewise I think the writing is on the wall for the Highlanders, it’s hard to see how NZ rugby can continue to support 5 SR teams, and population distribution suggests one team in the south island would make the most sense.
42 Go to commentsNice that Connor Evans is happy to stay on here, that JD Schikerling is returning and Steven Kitshoff. Dobbo is careful to bring back just anybody but having a new financial lease of life, it has made the Stormers a more attractive club. On top of being good quality, having the financial backing helps a lot
1 Go to commentsEngland-qualified too, I believe.
1 Go to commentsThis might turn out to be emblematic of a real issue in Irish rugby. Ireland have one of the best -if not the best - senior sides in the world, and one of the best under 20s sides as well, but don’t seem to be giving graduating under20s players many opportunities to break through into URC starting lineups. There is a risk that a lot of the junior talent they are developing will either be wasted, or lost to other nations.
1 Go to commentsYou ask good questions, Nick. The group who have put together the proposal to play out of Tarneit and participate in the growing of the ground’s capacity are not a bunch of white knights who have been dragged in post-crisis; they were around whilst the Rebels accummulated $23m in debt. Why do we come up with ideas that might make the franchise affordable after it’s broke and not when it might have prevented the trainwreck this offseason was? As for Gordon/Kellaway v Lolesio/Wright, they are both good options. I think the former are better rugby players but the goal kicking of Noah may be decisive when Schmiddy makes his choices. I know Harry Jones has the hots for Edmed but I think it’s one of his few poor choices and he and Jorgensen aren’t close to the other pairs. By coincidence, the wife and I went into town over the weekend to watch Brian Cox and Patricia Clarkson in Long Day’s Journey into Night. Beautifully acted but it was 3.5 hours in the chair and very hard work. Like the Rebels, there were only small bursts of joy to go with a lot of bad news and a depressing story line. In the end, I was hoping it would end and I could give my sore butt a break. Again, familiar.
42 Go to commentsGood decision, very good player but not international quality. But so was Jamison Gibson Park …..
3 Go to commentsLoose forwards always look good going forward and winning. It’s the same loose forwards for the Crusaders and the Canes this year as last year. Too much of the shiny new things getting noticed here while older consistent ones getting bagged. It’s early days. Calm the farm.
6 Go to commentsThanks Nick, and on the money. We tend to be apathetic until something REALLY BAD happens, then we aren't! At least this applies to the Reb players and coach, if not the spectators. They seem to be getting very quick ball at times. Have they altered something, or is it just all of the skills coming together at the right time? It seems almost the opposite of the Reds, who started the season with quick ball, but haven't been showing that in the last 3 losing games. Is it attitude (McDermott hasn't looked “right” to me for 3 weeks), or something else?
42 Go to commentsGood summary. As said, Sevu Reece has been electrifying for the Crusaders. Great try and he has been everywhere. Amazing he is now equal with Caleb Ralph , club record of 52 tries for the Crusaders. That record beckons. Good to see Dallas McLeod getting regular starts at last. A big few weeks are ahead.
6 Go to commentsGood article/interview.As was said Christian Lio-Willie was barnstorming when he came on for the Crusaders. What happened at the end, self-explanatory.Captain fantastic Scott Barrett is due back soon as well, once they are back from Aussie. Great to see Ethan Blackadder back last week.
1 Go to commentsYou must have been watching one team, Andrew - and even then you missed the brightest star in the Chiefs pack - Naitoa Ah Kuoi, 2 turnovers, genuine line-out presence and grunt around the field, and the soft hands of a back.
6 Go to commentsHaha what a crock of sh!t these headlines are. Moorby’s best year was that first. Still doesn’t seem to have the same game about him as when he was fresh but has bounced back well this season to be playing consistent tight accurate footy
3 Go to commentsIt’s even dumber than Bernard Foley not kicking the penalty to touch in the Melbourne Bledisloe in 2022.
3 Go to commentsYes, they are traveling well but it’s early days. The Chiefs were in front with 20 to go while they snatched a last minute win v the Reds. Keep calm.
1 Go to commentsThe failure of the Irish system / rugby playing style to produce their own backs has them looking elsewhere for innovation and flair - not that Jordie has much flair. He’s a converted fullback. The Canes have plenty of other younger options.
13 Go to comments1.Watch Wallace Sititi be the wild card AB. A genuine full time no 8 2. Luke J like Sotutu has not delivered. 3. Chiefs have all the right cattle but badly miss the leadership of Webber. LJ is about as unconvincing as Sam Cane when under the pump. They had the winning of that game in the second half then fell apart.
6 Go to commentsYes the Rebels are showing signs of life because they are literally playing for their live -lihoods and thanks to their Australian attack coach. However they are still playing an essentially dull boring south african style for the rest of the time. And Geoff Parling must be the most useless lineout coach ever. Worse than Steve Hansen even. Interestingly we are starting to see more cheap shots and attempts to get away with cheating by Australian players, now they are being influenced by Joe Schmidt. It was exactly the same when Rennie started out as Wallaby coach and thru his tenure. Trying to teach Australians to play like kiwis doesn’t work, as the last 20 years has conclusively demonstrated. Especially when we are not as good at it as kiwis. Which of course is the whole idea …..
42 Go to comments