Stat chat: Clear favourite emerges as Sam Cane's All Blacks successor

After more than 100 Tests, former All Blacks captain Sam Cane has hung up his international boots, opting to see out his career in Japan. Those now empty boots are mighty and hang, swinging gently, on a telephone line that connects the likes of Kel Tremain, Michael Jones and Richie McCaw.

Next in the succession of great All Blacks openside flankers? That is the question Scott Robertson and his forwards guru Jason Ryan must now answer. For that answer, the coaches, like fans from across New Zealand, are looking to Super Rugby Pacific’s breathless 2025 season.

In 2024, Dalton Papali’i started the year at seven for the All Blacks, making way for Cane when he returned to full health. Ardie Savea and Peter Lakai shared a few minutes in Cane’s jersey late in the year when the 2015 world champion was sidelined for a Test against France with a deep gash on his forehead.

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The incumbency is over, and the race to be Sam Cane’s successor is underway.

This is how the six top candidates stack up statistically after four rounds of Super Rugby Pacific, ranked by total relevant statistical productivity from last to first.

Ethan Blackadder

Age: 29
Caps: 15
Height: 190
Weight: 111

2025 stats per 80 minutes
Ranking – category: stat

2 – Tackles: 18.8
2 – Dominant tackles: 1
3 – Minutes (total): 238
3 – Penalties conceded: 0.3
4 – Carries: 11.8
4 – Offloads: 0.3
4 – Tries: 0.3
5 – Carry metres: 26.2
6 – Linebreaks: 0
6 – Tackle Breaks: 0.3
6 – Missed tackles: 3.4
6 – Turnovers won: 0.3

Overall ranking: 4.25

While Blackadder has played No. 7 for the All Blacks in the past, he was exclusively employed on the blindside for the team in 2024. He didn’t touch a No. 7 jersey in 2023.

One of the most fearless players on the planet, Blackadder’s work rate is undeniable. Few players throw their bodies into collisions with such intent and commitment, and fewer still can do so for the full 80 minutes.

The most familiar criticisms around Blackadder’s game are his lengthy injury history and his effectiveness in the physical exchanges.

While he’s played almost every minute this season, Blackadder missed six weeks of Super Rugby Pacific last year and only managed four Tests before succumbing to injury and being replaced by Wallace Sititi. It’s unlikely anyone will be usurping the young Chief after a World Rugby Breakthrough Player of the Year-winning debut season.

There were a handful of occasions in the Crusaders’ most recent clash, a win over the Reds, when Blackadder’s anticipation and speed had him in a position to land a disruptive blow to the attack at the moment they collected a pass, forcing possession to be spilled. One directly resulted in a try to Sevu Reece.

While his involvements are incredibly high, rarely does Blackadder win collisions against other international-level forwards with the ball in hand, even losing his side momentum with his carries when propelled backward. This is reflected in his carry statistics.

Player Tackles Won

1

Ethan Blackadder

21

2

Antonio Shalfoon

20

3

Aidan Ross

18

Dalton Papali’i

Age: 27
Caps: 36
Height: 191
Weight: 113

2025 stats per 80 minutes
Ranking – category: stat

1 – Tackles: 19.2
2 – Turnovers won: 1.5
2 – Tries: 0.4
2 – Linebreaks: 0.4
3 – Missed tackles: 1.2
3 – Dominant tackles: 0.8
5 – Tackle Breaks: 1.5
5 – Minutes (total): 208
6 – Penalties conceded: 1.9
6 – Offloads: 0
6 – Carries: 3.5
6 – Carry metres: 21.9

Overall ranking: 3.9

If it’s defence Scott Robertson wants, he need look no further than Dalton Papali’i.

Papali’i was second only to Carlo Tizzano in the overall tackle count a season ago and is again on track to finish among the top tacklers in Super Rugby in 2025. 19.2 is a remarkable tackle average, and while he hasn’t achieved it yet this season, Papali’i had as many dominant tackles as he did missed tackles in 2024.

On the attack side of the ball, Papali’i is by far the least employed ball-carrier on this list. Just 3.5 carries per game is a remarkably low number in a team that, a year ago, was thriving with the ball in hand.

Perhaps most notable of Papali’i’s stats outside of the low carry numbers is his penalty count. By far the worst on this list, the 27-year-old has five to his name already this season after conceding just eight in the entirety of the Blues’ 2024 championship-winning campaign.

Looking ahead to his fit in the All Blacks loose forward unit, with a healthy Wallace Sititi and Ardie Savea to complement, perhaps Scott Robertson could look to Papali’i to be the connecting piece to burn through defensive work in a way similar to his role with the Blues.

Peter Lakai

Age: 22
Caps: 3
Height: 186
Weight: 108

2025 stats per 80 minutes
Ranking – category: stat

1 – Carry metres: 103.7
1 – Penalties conceded: 0
2 – Tries: 0.4
2 – Carries: 13
4 – Minutes (total): 216
4 – Tackles: 14.1
4 – Dominant tackles: 0.7
4 – Tackle Breaks: 1.9
5 – Missed tackles: 3
5 – Turnovers won: 0.4
6 – Linebreaks: 0
6 – Offloads: 0

Overall ranking: 3.6

The young buck of the group, Lakai’s future appears nothing but bright, and his first taste of international rugby in 2024 went as smoothly as the 22-year-old could have hoped for, results aside.

In the biggest of his three Test appearances to date, the Hurricanes flanker entered the game just minutes after kickoff and proceeded to play just as comfortably as he would in Hurricanes colours, despite the game coming under the bright lights of Stade de France against Antoine Dupont and company.

The Test match temperament is evident, and so too is the work rate. Splitting his time between all three flanker roles in 2025, Lakai has mainly played at No. 8, something that has helped his carry stats.

The big weaknesses in Lakai’s game so far this season have been his ability to win turnovers and his high number of missed tackles.

Looking at historical data, Lakai tackled at 84 per cent in 2024, and while he was far from the most effective fetcher in the competition, he did manage eight turnover wins.

Being five years younger than anyone else on this list and still comfortably holding his own, there’s a real desire to see the available playing time invested in Lakai as the All Blacks look towards the future.

Player Carries

1

Peter Lakai

17

2

Peter Umaga-Jensen

14

3

Kini Naholo

13

Luke Jacobson

Age: 27
Caps: 23
Height: 191
Weight: 107

2025 stats per 80 minutes
Ranking – category: stat

1 – Penalties conceded: 0
1 – Carries: 14.7
2 – Missed tackles: 0.9
2 – Carry metres: 86.4
2 – Offloads: 0.9
3 – Tackles: 15.6
3 – Tackle Breaks: 2.8
4 – Turnovers won: 0.9
6 – Tries: 0
6 – Linebreaks: 0
6 – Minutes (total): 87
6 – Dominant tackles: 0

Overall ranking: 3.5

The player with the smallest sample size to evaluate form in 2025, Jacobson is one of the few lineout options on this list, having played No. 8 for much of his career at the Chiefs.

While he tops the stats counts in two areas, penalties conceded and carries, these stats do need some additional context. Firstly, the 27-year-old has only played at No. 8 this season in the absence of Wallace Sititi.

Secondly, Jacobson was the most heavily penalised player in Super Rugby Pacific in 2024, a season in which he was playing on the openside flank. He averaged 8.6 carries per game in the No. 7 jersey last season.

On the flip side, the small sample size does a discredit to the man affectionately known as ‘Concrete Shoulders’ in regards to his dominant tackles. Jacobson averaged 1.1 dominant hits per game last season, a stat good enough to earn him second on this ranking if it were replicated this season.

Jacobson’s versatility made him the All Blacks’ preferred impact loose forward in 2024 when he was healthy. He cracked the starting XV once, playing on the blindside flank against Fiji.

A height of 191 cm makes the Chiefs hardman equally the tallest option available for the All Blacks and one of the most efficient tacklers.

Du’Plessis Kirifi

Age: 28
Caps: 0
Height: 181
Weight: 103

2025 stats per 80 minutes
Ranking – category: stat

1 – Linebreaks: 0.6
1 – Tackle Breaks: 3.1
1 – Offloads: 1.9
2 – Minutes (total): 259
3 – Penalties conceded: 0.3
3 – Turnovers won: 1.2
3 – Carry metres: 85.9
4 – Missed tackles: 1.9
4 – Tries: 0.3
5 – Tackles: 13.6
5 – Dominant tackles: 0.6
5 – Carries: 11.7

Overall ranking: 3.1

Uncapped but not unfamiliar with the All Blacks environment, Kirifi has joined the team as injury cover on two occasions.

A fan favourite, Kirifi is the only uncapped player on this list and yet is the third oldest. That being said, with the 2027 Rugby World Cup ever-present in selection debates, the quadrennial tournament would still comfortably fall within Kirifi’s prime years.

The most familiar criticism of the 28-year-old’s game is his small stature. Standing under six feet tall, the precedent is that loose forwards have to be of Jac Morgan quality to break into the international arena at that height.

However you rate Kirifi’s talent, he does offer athleticism you won’t find elsewhere on this list. With speed off the mark, Kirifi is at his most effective as a tackler in high line-speed defenses and has the lowest centre of gravity, which helps when contesting around the ruck.

It’s hard to talk about the man without mentioning his attitude, too. A mature leader, the multi-time NPC-winning captain wears his heart on his sleeve regardless of the scoreline and brings immense energy to every contest.

On attack, Kirifi offers superb ball-playing ability as a runner and distributor, being best utilised at the head of pods with the ability to read the defence. Kirifi is often used at first receiver in lineout moves for the Hurricanes and contributes to linebreaks on a weekly basis in that role.

Du’Plessis Kirifi has been named as captain of the All Blacks XV for 2024 🔥#AllBlacksXV pic.twitter.com/EkxHCzVWkB

— All Blacks (@AllBlacks) October 31, 2024

Ardie Savea

Age: 31
Caps: 94
Height: 188
Weight: 107

2025 stats per 80 minutes
Ranking – category: stat

1 – Minutes (total): 265
1 – Missed tackles: 0.6
1 – Turnovers won: 1.8
1 – Tries: 0.6
1 – Dominant tackles: 1.5
2 – Tackle Breaks: 3
2 – Offloads: 0.9
3 – Carries: 12.1
3 – Linebreaks: 0.3
4 – Carry metres: 58.6
5 – Penalties conceded: 0.6
6 – Tackles: 13

Overall ranking: 2.5

Perhaps the question shouldn’t be ‘Who is the next No. 7?’ and should be ‘Who will play No. 6 once Ardie Savea moves to the openside and Wallace Sititi takes the reins at No. 8?’

Savea is undeniably adept at playing the openside flanker role and has done so during the last two club seasons in Japan and now at Moana Pasifika.

The 2023 World Rugby Player of the Year’s tackle efficiency and fetching ability show up week in, week out, regardless of what position he plays.

One of the strongest pound-for-pound players in the game, Savea will wrestle any of the world’s biggest players to the ground and be back on his feet in an instant.

Whether or not the All Blacks vice-captain steps into the No. 7 jersey will depend on many factors, largely whether selectors prefer their options on this list or their equivalent options on the blindside. Either way, expect Savea to remain in the All Blacks’ starting XV.

 

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So, Ardie Savea wins on paper.

The stats will only ever show so much of the picture, and there is no shortage of loose forward combinations the All Blacks could roll out in 2025.

It’s also worth noting that some of the men who occupy this list are also in the race for the blindside flanker role, should that be the position that opens up with Ardie Savea and Wallace Sititi reshuffled.

Either way, the question is: who complements that dynamic duo best? Will Scott Robertson opt for a player who can tackle his heart out and clean rucks around the All Blacks’ explosive stars, or a player who contributes more relentless running to punish defences the world over?

2024 taught us these selectors will not be seduced by X-factor lacking robustness. Against the world’s best, your greatest strength is only as relevant as your greatest weakness.

Can Ethan Blackadder go toe-to-toe with the big boys? Does Dalton Papali’i have the firepower? Is Peter Lakai ready to be the openside of the future? Can Luke Jacobson keep his hands clean? Is Du’Plessis Kirifi big enough to take haymaker after haymaker on the chin? Can Ardie Savea resist the strain of father time?

These questions must be answered, and the verdict will be delivered on Wednesday, July 2, when the first All Blacks team of the year is named to play France in Dunedin.

Statistics courtesy of Stats Perform/Opta