My honest prediction for the Investec Champions Cup – Andy Goode

The French clubs have had a stranglehold on the Champions Cup for five years but the South Africans are primed and ready to break that grip.

There’s not much the rainbow nation hasn’t achieved in rugby terms but this particular nut is the one they’ve found toughest to crack of late and it’s often used as a stick to beat them with but this year feels different.

They’ve had a few quarter-finalists over the past three seasons but no South African side has gone further than that and last year was a spectacular failure, with the Sharks, Bulls and Stormers all crashing out before the Round of 16.

However, there’s a good argument that this current crop of Springboks are the best team rugby’s ever seen, certainly the best South Africa has had, and they’ve won 12 of 14 Tests in 2025 to make it the second best year in their history statistically.

The Sharks boast a galaxy of stars such as Siya Kolisi, Ox Nché, Eben Etzebeth [ban notwithstanding], Grant Williams, André Esterhuizen and the Hendrikse brothers and the Bulls have reached three of the last four URC finals but it’s the Stormers who look best placed to crash the French party.

They’re flying this season, with six wins out of six so far and four of those on the road, and will be a massive threat to everyone in the Champions Cup if Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu and Damian Willemse can replicate their international form.

The duo are the primary reason behind the expansion in South Africa’s game plan and have been such a success that the Boks equalled the most tries they’ve ever scored in a calendar year with 81 in 2025.

If the likes of Frans Malherbe, Salmaan Moerat, Ben-Jason Dixon and Evan Roos can give them front-foot ball, they’ll be more than a match for Bordeaux, Toulouse and Toulon but they’ll need to get off to a strong start as home advantage will play a big part come the knockout stages.

Travel obviously remains a major factor but it’s hard enough to win away from home in the latter stages of the Champions Cup, especially in France, so they’ll need to finish second or ideally top of Pool 3 in order to be playing the big games in Cape Town.

I can see them winning away at Quins, as well as seeing off La Rochelle and Leicester at home, so they’ve probably got their toughest test first up in the form of Bayonne at the cauldron that is the Stade Jean-Dauger.

All of the pools look relatively equal, which I think is a positive reflection of both the strength of the competition and the way it’s been structured, but French teams will be favourites to top the other three groups.

Bordeaux are reigning champions, while Toulouse and Toulon are neck and neck at the summit of the Top 14 at the moment and faced one another in the Champions Cup quarter-final last season.

The return of a certain Antoine Dupont boosts the chances of the most successful side in European rugby history but it’s arguably their depth that makes them so formidable and that’s what sets the top few teams apart from the rest.

All teams will have to contend with multiple injuries, especially with a concertinaed Six Nations taking place ahead of the knockout stages, but some can swap in internationals when frontline superstars are ruled out.

That’s where Leinster are normally mentioned prominently but the depth in Irish rugby isn’t looking quite as strong as a few years ago, I’m not sure Rieko Ioane is the missing piece in the puzzle and a lot has changed since they last lifted the trophy in 2018.

Don’t get me wrong, their form will pick up with the return of their internationals and they will be there or thereabouts but they’ve only beaten Zebre, Dragons and Sharks this season and it’s Munster who look the premier Irish province right now.

The men in red should make the knockout stages once more but they’re going to have to reproduce the phenomenal away form that won them the URC title in 2022/23 if they want to win it as they have trips to The Rec and Stade Mayol in the pool stages alone.

And, if it isn’t to be a South African side that ends the French stranglehold on the Champions Cup, it might just be a South African head coach that does it as Bath are top of the Prem table again after lifting the trophy in June.

Johann van Graan’s men didn’t make it past the Champions Cup pool stages last season but he has an even deeper squad to work with this time around, with Santi Carreras and Henry Arundell in particular adding another dimension to their game.

They have a tough opening couple of rounds against Munster and Toulon but they have the power and pace to beat anyone on their day, with Finn Russell pulling the strings, and will fancy a tilt at the title after getting the Prem monkey off their back.

All in all, it feels just a bit more open this year and I’d expect France to have more teams than any other nation in the quarter-finals but I think it’ll be a name from outside the Top 14 being etched onto the trophy in Bilbao at the end of May.

In fact, I think it might just be the second time in the Champions Cup era, so going back a decade, that we see a final with no French teams in it as I’m going for the Stormers and Bath to make the big dance at the San Mames.

Received wisdom suggests it’ll be Bordeaux, Toulouse or La Rochelle, who have won the last five titles between them, lifting the trophy but South Africa are kings of the rugby world at present and I think it’s the Stormers and their golden boy Feinberg-Mngomezulu’s time.