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South Africa are 2019's form side but they are just the sixth most experienced elite squad tipped for RWC glory

By Josh Raisey
South Africa. (Photo by Koki Nagahama/Getty Images)

This World Cup is shaping up to be the closest ever, with no team emerging as a clear favourite. There is no more a straightforward sign of this than how the No1 spot in the world rankings changed hands three times in a month. 

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With that in mind, any area of the game where one team can get an edge over the other becomes all the more important. 

Traditionally, one thing that has proven to be crucial in splitting fairly even teams is their experience, with the team with the most caps often coming out on top. However, when looking at the form teams in the game currently, that trend may be bucked this year. 

Although Ireland may nominally be the best team in the world in terms of rankings, it is hard to convincingly argue that they are the form team currently. They have beaten Wales in successive weeks, but they were hammered by England at Twickenham and were comprehensively beaten by both teams in the Six Nations this year. 

Purely looking at results in 2019, South Africa must be seen as the current form team having drawn with the All Blacks in New Zealand and having won the Rugby Championship. But they have the least caps in their squad out of the top six teams, averaging 34 caps overall (with 41 in the forwards and 26 in the backs). 

(Continue reading below…)

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The two form teams in the northern hemisphere this year are probably Grand Slam winners Wales and England, but they both average 35 caps, which is the second-fewest out of the top six. 

Meanwhile, the weakest team in the top six – Australia – are quite considerably the most capped, averaging 45 caps per player. What’s more incredible is that they average 50 caps in the backs, which includes the uncapped Jordan Petaia in their World Cup squad. Likewise, Ireland are the most capped team in the northern hemisphere, averaging 37 caps. 

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This raises an age-old issue in sport regarding the selection of players based on form or experience. Australia have clearly opted for the latter, much to the dismay to some of their fans, particularly as the 118-cap, 35-year-old Adam Ashley-Cooper was selected ahead of four-cap Tom Banks despite the Brumbies full-back being one of the form players in Super Rugby this year. 

 

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Ireland may also be suffering a similar problem and while they may not have necessarily overlooked some form players, their experienced ones are being questioned. Their 120-cap captain Rory Best has been under huge scrutiny this summer as Ireland’s lineout has been well below par. 

With the half-back pairing of the 74-cap Conor Murray and the 84-cap Jonathan Sexton put under a lot of pressure in the Six Nations as well, it is clear that Ireland’s troubles may be a result of their more experienced players underperforming. 

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It was inconceivable that Joe Schmidt would have dropped any of these players, but with Best now aged 37 and Sexton 34, they are no longer in the prime of their careers which makes the number of caps slightly deceiving. 

On the other hand, with the decision to select the uncapped trio of Jack Singleton, Lewis Ludlam and Willi Heinz at the beginning of the summer, Eddie Jones clearly prioritised form over experience in some areas. 

Jones opted to omit Dylan Hartley (although he had an ongoing knee injury), Chris Robshaw and Danny Care for the uncapped three, spurning a potential 246 caps for zero – and the Harlequins duo certainly did not have bad seasons domestically. 

This choice by the Australian may be an indication of the strength in depth of the England team, as Schmidt may not have had the luxury of having so many players at his disposal, but it nonetheless shows Jones’ approach. 

Ireland coach Schmidt did make a similar choice with the selection of the three-cap Jean Kleyn over veteran Devin Toner and subsequently faced a torrent of criticism. 

It is hard to determine which is the correct option until looking back retrospectively on the World Cup. While some veterans may be out of form, their experience helps them return to their potential. 

All players suffer slumps throughout their careers and returning to their peak is part of the maturing process. Ireland’s Best may have received some flak, but no one doubts his class. Then again, in such a short period of time, it can be a risk to take struggling players to a World Cup. 

 

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Of all teams, the All Blacks may have struck a good balance between form and experience. They are the second-most experienced team in the top six, despite overlooking 108-cap Owen Franks. Equally, Steve Hansen did not select the in-form Ngani Laumape, who only has 15 caps. 

However, it has also been said this season that some of their more experienced players are now a step behind what they used to be in their younger years. 

In the past year, their experience shone through at Twickenham when they fought back after an early onslaught from England. However, they failed to do the same a week later against a slightly more experienced Ireland team in Dublin. 

Of course, stats can also be misleading. While the Springboks have the least experienced team in the top six, only New Zealand average more caps in the pack. South Africa are a pack-orientated team, so this experience in the forwards may be noticeable in Japan. 

What is also apparent is that seventh-placed Scotland average 30 caps overall, which is quite a bit lower than any other team above them. This could prove telling in the World Cup, particularly in a group with Ireland. Although the least-capped teams tend to be the form ones currently, there may be a tipping point. 

There is now little more than a week remaining before these questions will start to be answered regarding the balance between form and experience. While caps have always been a priority in Test rugby, the build-up to this World Cup has shown that they can be misleading. 

RWC 2019’S MOST EXPERIENCED SQUADS 

1. Australia – 1,405 caps (forwards 705, backs 700);

2. New Zealand – 1,213 (forwards 706, backs 507);

3. Ireland – 1,139 (forwards 630, backs 509);

4. Wales – 1,090 (forwards 562, backs 528);

5. England – 1,074 (forwards 584, backs 490);

6. South Africa – 1,053 (forwards 691, backs: 362);

7. Scotland – 923 (forwards 489, backs 434).

  • Averages are rounded to the nearest whole number

WATCH: Part one of Operation Jaypan, the two-part RugbyPass documentary on what travelling fans can expect to experience at the World Cup in Japan 

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Jon 5 hours ago
Jake White: Are modern rugby players actually better?

This is the problem with conservative mindsets and phycology, and homogenous sports, everybody wants to be the same, use the i-win template. Athlete wise everyone has to have muscles and work at the gym to make themselves more likely to hold on that one tackle. Do those players even wonder if they are now more likely to be tackled by that player as a result of there “work”? Really though, too many questions, Jake. Is it better Jake? Yes, because you still have that rugby of ole that you talk about. Is it at the highest International level anymore? No, but you go to your club or checkout your representative side and still engage with that ‘beautiful game’. Could you also have a bit of that at the top if coaches encouraged there team to play and incentivized players like Damian McKenzie and Ange Capuozzo? Of course we could. Sadly Rugby doesn’t, or didn’t, really know what direction to go when professionalism came. Things like the state of northern pitches didn’t help. Over the last two or three decades I feel like I’ve been fortunate to have all that Jake wants. There was International quality Super Rugby to adore, then the next level below I could watch club mates, pulling 9 to 5s, take on the countries best in representative rugby. Rugby played with flair and not too much riding on the consequences. It was beautiful. That largely still exists today, but with the world of rugby not quite getting things right, the picture is now being painted in NZ that that level of rugby is not required in the “pathway” to Super Rugby or All Black rugby. You might wonder if NZR is right and the pathway shouldn’t include the ‘amateur’, but let me tell you, even though the NPC might be made up of people still having to pull 9-5s, we know these people still have dreams to get out of that, and aren’t likely to give them. They will be lost. That will put a real strain on the concept of whether “visceral thrill, derring-do and joyful abandon” type rugby will remain under the professional level here in NZ. I think at some point that can be eroded as well. If only wanting the best athlete’s at the top level wasn’t enough to lose that, shutting off the next group, or level, or rugby players from easy access to express and showcase themselves certainly will. That all comes back around to the same question of professionalism in rugby and whether it got things right, and rugby is better now. Maybe the answer is turning into a “no”?

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j
john 7 hours ago
Will the Crusaders' decline spark a slow death for New Zealand rugby?

But here in Australia we were told Penney was another gun kiwi coach, for the Tahs…….and yet again it turned out the kiwi coach was completely useless. Another con job on Australian rugby. As was Robbie Deans, as was Dave Rennie. Both coaches dumped from NZ and promoted to Australia as our saviour. And the Tahs lap them up knowing they are second rate and knowing that under pressure when their short comings are exposed in Australia as well, that they will fall in below the largest most powerful province and choose second rate Tah players to save their jobs. As they do and exactly as Joe Schmidt will do. Gauranteed. Schmidt was dumped by NZ too. That’s why he went overseas. That why kiwi coaches take jobs in Australia, to try and prove they are not as bad as NZ thought they were. Then when they get found out they try and ingratiate themselves to NZ again by dragging Australian teams down with ridiculous selections and game plans. NZ rugby’s biggest problem is that it can’t yet transition from MCaw Cheatism. They just don’t know how to try and win on your merits. It is still always a contest to see how much cheating you can get away with. Without a cheating genius like McCaw, they are struggling. This I think is why my wise old mate in NZ thinks Robertson will struggle. The Crusaders are the nursery of McCaw Cheatism. Sean Fitzpatrick was probably the father of it. Robertson doesn’t know anything else but other countries have worked it out.

30 Go to comments
A
Adrian 9 hours ago
Will the Crusaders' decline spark a slow death for New Zealand rugby?

Thanks Nick The loss of players to OS, injury and retirement is certainly not helping the Crusaders. Ditto the coach. IMO Penny is there to hold the fort and cop the flak until new players and a new coach come through,…and that's understood and accepted by Penny and the Crusaders hierarchy. I think though that what is happening with the Crusaders is an indicator of what is happening with the other NZ SRP teams…..and the other SRP teams for that matter. Not enough money. The money has come via the SR competition and it’s not there anymore. It's in France, Japan and England. Unless or until something is done to make SR more SELLABLE to the NZ/Australia Rugby market AND the world rugby market the $s to keep both the very best players and the next rung down won't be there. They will play away from NZ more and more. I think though that NZ will continue to produce the players and the coaches of sufficient strength for NZ to have the capacity to stay at the top. Whether they do stay at the top as an international team will depend upon whether the money flowing to SRP is somehow restored, or NZ teams play in the Japan comp, or NZ opts to pick from anywhere. As a follower of many sports I’d have to say that the organisation and promotion of Super Rugby has been for the last 20 years closest to the worst I’ve ever seen. This hasn't necessarily been caused by NZ, but it’s happened. Perhaps it can be fixed, perhaps not. The Crusaders are I think a symptom of this, not the cause

30 Go to comments
T
Trevor 12 hours ago
Will forgotten Wallabies fit the Joe Schmidt model?

Thanks Brett.. At last a positive article on the potential of Wallaby candidates, great to read. Schmidt’s record as an international rugby coach speaks for itself, I’m somewhat confident he will turn the Wallaby’s fortunes around …. on the field. It will be up to others to steady the ship off the paddock. But is there a flaw in my optimism? We have known all along that Australia has the players to be very competitive with their international rivals. We know that because everyone keeps telling us. So why the poor results? A question that requires a definitive answer before the turn around can occur. Joe Schmidt signed on for 2 years, time to encompass the Lions tour of 2025. By all accounts he puts family first and that’s fair enough, but I would wager that his 2 year contract will be extended if the next 18 months or so shows the statement “Australia has the players” proves to be correct. The new coach does not have a lot of time to meld together an outfit that will be competitive in the Rugby Championship - it will be interesting to see what happens. It will be interesting to see what happens with Giteau law, the new Wallaby coach has already verbalised that he would to prefer to select from those who play their rugby in Australia. His first test in charge is in July just over 3 months away .. not a long time. I for one wish him well .. heaven knows Australia needs some positive vibes.

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