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Six Nations title permutations: What happens if...

EDINBURGH, SCOTLAND - MARCH 07: France player Antoine Dupont scores a try despite the attentions of Kyle Steyn of Scotland during the Guinness Six Nations 2026 match between Scotland and France at Scottish Gas Murrayfield on March 07, 2026 in Edinburgh, Scotland. (Photo by Stu Forster/Getty Images)

Cutting straight to the chase, we break down what needs to happen for each of the three teams still in contention for the title to win the 2026 Guinness Men’s Six Nations.

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France are tied with Scotland at the top of the table on 16 points, but with a significantly better points difference (+79 to +21), while Ireland are two points in arrears in third, with a points difference of +16.

Ireland host Scotland at the Aviva Stadium in the first match of the triple header, the outcome of which will bring much more clarity to the title’s likely destiny, before Wales play Italy in Cardiff.

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An amzingly unpredictable Six Nations will then conclude in Paris with the latest version of ‘Le Crunch’, France vs England.

So will it be France, Scotland or Ireland? Keep this guide handy, as it could get very interesting.

FOR FRANCE TO WIN THE TITLE:

If Ireland beat Scotland:
– Any victory for France wins them the Championship
– A draw wins them the Championship if they get one more bonus point than Ireland, or Ireland beat Scotland by 63 points
– A loss with two bonus points wins them the Championship if Ireland don’t get a try bonus point, unless Ireland can overcome a 63-point points difference deficit

If Ireland draw with Scotland:
– Any win wins them the Championship
– Any draw wins them the Championship
– A loss with two bonus points wins them the Championship if Scotland don’t get a try bonus point

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If Scotland beat Ireland:
– They need a win against England with one more bonus point than Scotland
– Or if both France and Scotland get the same bonus points, Scotland will need to overcome a 58-point points difference deficit to win the Championship

FOR SCOTLAND TO WIN THE TITLE:

If France beat England:
They need a win against Ireland with one more bonus point than France
Or if both France and Scotland get the same bonus points, Scotland will need to overcome a 58-point points difference deficit to win the Championship

If France draw with England:
– Any win wins Scotland the Championship
– A draw with one more bonus point than France wins them the Championship
– A loss by maximum two points, with two losing bonus points, can win them the Championship if neither France or Ireland get a try bonus point, and Scotland overcome a 58-point points difference deficit

If England beat France:
– Any win wins them the Championship
– Any draw wins them the Championship
– A loss by maximum two points, with two losing bonus points, can win them the Champiopnship if Ireland don’t get a try bonus point, France don’t get two losing bonus points, and Scotland overcome a 58-point points difference deficit

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FOR IRELAND TO WIN THE TITLE:

If France beat England:
– They cannot win the Championship

If France draw with England:
– Any win with 1 more bonus point than France wins them the championship
– A win with equal bonus points to France wins them the championship if Scotland don’t get 2 losing bonus points, and Ireland overcome a 63-point points difference deficit

If England beat France:
– Any bonus point win wins them the championship
– A non-bonus point win wins them the championship, if neither Scotland or France get 2 losing bonus points, and if tied with France Ireland overcome either 63-point points difference deficit with France

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Comments

12 Comments
H
HectorP 44 days ago

If Ireland beat Scotland without any bonus points and if France lose to England narrowly but get 2 losing bonus points, then France win the tournament having won three games and Ireland come second having won four games. Also it possible that Scotland could come second if they get a losing bonus point although, like France, only winning

three games to Ireland’s four - a farce!

M
Mzilikazi 44 days ago

Really realise these sorts of final weekends in 6N. This one a real cracker, given what has gone before this year.


So many facets to this gemstone……Ireland at home to Scotland, who mauled France, but can they rise a second weekend in a row …..Ireland mauled England, then did no mauling against a pretty determined and well coached Welsh team…..France badly torn apart by the wild Scots, but then at the death they became maulers. England falling faster than a bungee jumper off the Kawarau bridge. With the team they have picked looking likely to have misjudged the rope length and about to plunge into the green waters of the Kawarau.


Oh, and don’t forget the Italians, who have arguably one of the best centre pairings in the world as I write. Rest of the team not bad. But then in that game can the Welsh break their long row of ducks ? Je crois qu’ils le peuvent !

H
Hammer Head 44 days ago

Basically Ireland and Scotland need England to do them a massive favour. Which is sweet.

H
Hammer Head 44 days ago

I’m not sure why this is complicated. France win.

r
rs 44 days ago

I’ve used up all my AI credits to work this one out, and my head still hurts.


Life is so much more interesting when it’s complicated.


It’s gonna be a fun weekend.


Let’s hope England can put up a fight against the French; you just never know with them.


I hope Scotland does it, though. Losing to Italy in Round 1, to playing for the championship in Round 5. What a turnaround!

M
Matt Perry 44 days ago

Using your own brain is free FYI

M
Matt Perry 45 days ago

One of those Super Saturdays where there are theoretically tons of permutations, but they all rely on a massive underdog turning over a tournament favourite.


If I remember right the England and Scotland positions were reversed last year, with England praying Scotland could beat France in Paris and falling short.

u
unknown 45 days ago

All moot unless England can prevent France winning with a bonus point and at the moment that seems a monumental task

M
Mr Easy 45 days ago

Kind of you to provide ‘if England beat France’ scenarios as that isn’t going to happen.

S
SB 45 days ago

Ireland beat Scotland by 63 points

Imagine this lol

J
John Breslin 45 days ago

Yeah, it will be tough.


I don't see Scotland being held scoreless and Finn would be good for a couple of penalties. Scotland are getting 13 PTS minimum


So we need to get them 76-13 bare minimum.


Bet we only get 75. How Irish would that be!

J
John Breslin 45 days ago

My head hurts

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