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Six Nations title permutations: What happens if...
By Jon Newcombe
Cutting straight to the chase, we break down what needs to happen for each of the three teams still in contention for the title to win the 2026 Guinness Men’s Six Nations.
France are tied with Scotland at the top of the table on 16 points, but with a significantly better points difference (+79 to +21), while Ireland are two points in arrears in third, with a points difference of +16.
Ireland host Scotland at the Aviva Stadium in the first match of the triple header, the outcome of which will bring much more clarity to the title’s likely destiny, before Wales play Italy in Cardiff.
VIDEO
An amzingly unpredictable Six Nations will then conclude in Paris with the latest version of ‘Le Crunch’, France vs England.
So will it be France, Scotland or Ireland? Keep this guide handy, as it could get very interesting.
FOR FRANCE TO WIN THE TITLE:
If Ireland beat Scotland:
– Any victory for France wins them the Championship
– A draw wins them the Championship if they get one more bonus point than Ireland, or Ireland beat Scotland by 63 points
– A loss with two bonus points wins them the Championship if Ireland don’t get a try bonus point, unless Ireland can overcome a 63-point points difference deficit
If Ireland draw with Scotland:
– Any win wins them the Championship
– Any draw wins them the Championship
– A loss with two bonus points wins them the Championship if Scotland don’t get a try bonus point
If Scotland beat Ireland:
– They need a win against England with one more bonus point than Scotland
– Or if both France and Scotland get the same bonus points, Scotland will need to overcome a 58-point points difference deficit to win the Championship
FOR SCOTLAND TO WIN THE TITLE:
If France beat England:
They need a win against Ireland with one more bonus point than France
Or if both France and Scotland get the same bonus points, Scotland will need to overcome a 58-point points difference deficit to win the Championship
If France draw with England:
– Any win wins Scotland the Championship
– A draw with one more bonus point than France wins them the Championship
– A loss by maximum two points, with two losing bonus points, can win them the Championship if neither France or Ireland get a try bonus point, and Scotland overcome a 58-point points difference deficit
If England beat France:
– Any win wins them the Championship
– Any draw wins them the Championship
– A loss by maximum two points, with two losing bonus points, can win them the Champiopnship if Ireland don’t get a try bonus point, France don’t get two losing bonus points, and Scotland overcome a 58-point points difference deficit
FOR IRELAND TO WIN THE TITLE:
If France beat England:
– They cannot win the Championship
If France draw with England:
– Any win with 1 more bonus point than France wins them the championship
– A win with equal bonus points to France wins them the championship if Scotland don’t get 2 losing bonus points, and Ireland overcome a 63-point points difference deficit
If England beat France:
– Any bonus point win wins them the championship
– A non-bonus point win wins them the championship, if neither Scotland or France get 2 losing bonus points, and if tied with France Ireland overcome either 63-point points difference deficit with France
