There's a reason Exeter finished 30 points ahead of Northampton - Andy Goode
Only five teams have ever won away in a Premiership semi-final in 29 attempts and it is hard to make the case for a sixth but I just have a feeling Gloucester could do something special.
I was part of the first team to win on the road in the semi-finals with Leicester back in 2008 when we won at Kingsholm and only four teams have managed to do it in the decade since, which tells you everything about the size of the task facing Gloucester and Northampton.
We were lucky to be in the play-offs that year and if they see it as a free shot, you just never know. If either of the away sides are going to pull off an upset, I reckon Gloucester have got more chance of doing it at Saracens.
That will sound strange to some when Northampton were level at half-time at Sandy Park last week and the Cherry and Whites have never won at Allianz Park but I just think there’s a glimmer of hope for Gloucester.
I don’t think there’ll be a hangover from the Champions Cup final a couple of weeks ago but you never know and then there is the front row, which could be an area of weakness.
Richard Barrington and Vincent Koch are good players but if they go down early like Titi Lamositele and Mako Vunipola did in the European final, Ralph Adams-Hale is a youngster with only a handful of Premiership appearances to his name and Christian Judge was playing in the Championship earlier this season.
Gloucester have Val Rapava Ruskin, who could make a massive impact, and Ruan Dreyer waiting in reserve and any of their four props will fancy their chances if they see those two coming on but it isn’t an area that you’d normally expect them to be dominant in really.
If they are to win, the back row of Ruan Ackermann, Jaco Kriel and Ben Morgan are going to have to get the better of their opposite numbers and the Premiership Player of the Season Danny Cipriani is going to have to capitalise on almost every chance they get.
He’s a master of creating little edge attacks and getting his team going from slow ball to quick ball. He’ll see things that others won’t but Gloucester will have to be clinical. They might get three openings and will have to take at least two of them.
They won’t be as loose as they have been at times this season and will have been working on their kicking game specifically for this game, so it might be a case of kicking their way up the field to 30 metres from the opposition try-line and then knowing when to press the gamble button.
Ollie Thorley will be a big loss for them, though, as he’s been their x-factor player this season and is someone who Saracens might have been a bit frightened of with the extra pace that he offers.
Both Gloucester and Northampton look like they’ve picked teams to combat the power games of their hosts, though, with six forwards and just two backs named by both among the replacements.
I’ve never been a fan of the six, two split on the bench and they could have issues if a key back goes down early but it’s clear that they think the extra forward will be useful with the amount of pressure they’re going to have to withstand and they know they’ll have to take the top two on physically if they have any chance of getting the better of them.
At Sandy Park the match-up of the young Joe Simmonds, who’s earned his place at the business end of the season just like he did a year ago, against the vast experience of Dan Biggar will be a fascinating one but I don’t think it’ll be the defining one.
Saints do have the ability to create something out of nothing and turn defence into attack in an instant with Cobus Reinach and Taqele Naiyaravoro, in particular, so you have to give them a shot but they’re going to need much more of an attacking focus throughout.
There’s a reason Chiefs finished streets ahead of them in the regular season and I just can’t see Saints winning unfortunately.
Exeter finished 30 points ahead of Northampton, which is the biggest gap between first and fourth in Premiership history, and the 10-point difference between second-placed Saracens and third-placed Gloucester is the biggest for 14 years as well.
A romantic always wants to see a brilliant semi-final that goes all the way to the wire and potentially a victory for the underdog but it’s right that the reward for finishing in the top two is a home semi-final and that does make thigs doubly difficult for the teams in third and fourth.
Chiefs and Sarries have been head and shoulders above everyone else again and the gap between them and the rest does seem to have grown this season.
History tells you there’s a 17 per cent chance of an away team winning their Premiership semi-final and, while I think Gloucester are in with a shout, it’s impossible to back against another Exeter v Saracens finale.
Comments on RugbyPass
My heart is with Quins, but the head is convinced Toulouse have too much. Ntamack is back, his timing and wisdom has been missed.
1 Go to commentsWow, what a starting line up for the Sharks) Tasty up front,kremer vs Tshituka or venter …fiery ,,Lavannini ,,will he knobble etzebeth? Biggest game for belleau?
1 Go to commentsIt was rubbish to watch, Blues weren’t even present. Did what they had to do, nothing more. Should be better next week against canes.
1 Go to commentsI’ve just noticed that this match has an all-French refereeing team. Surely a game like this ought to have a neutral ref? Although looking at the BBC preview of the Saints game, Raynal is also down as reffing that - so there may be some confusion about who is reffing what.
1 Go to commentsIf Havili can play anywhere in the back line, why not first 5. #10.
11 Go to commentsThe dressing room had already left for their summer break before they ran out in Dublin that year, and that’s on the coach. Franco Smith has undoubtedly made progress, particularly their maul, developing squad players and increasing squad depth. And against a very tight budget too. That said they were too lightweight last year and got found out against both Toulon and Munster in consecutive games. Better this season so far but they’ve developed something of a slow start habit occasionally, most notably losing at home to Northampton who played them at their own game. Play offs will ultimately show whether there has been tangible progress on last year, or not…!
2 Go to commentsAustralian Rugby has been a disaster, by not incorporating learning from previous successful campaigns. QLD Reds 2011 - Waratahs 2014. Players, coaches and administrators appoint there representatives for scheduled meetings, organisation’s agreement’s assessments and correspondence. This why a unified Rugby Union under one entity works. Every Rugby nation has taken that path. Was most difficult in the Northern hemisphere with over 100 years of club rugby before the game become professional. Took a lot of humility for those unions to eventually work together.
7 Go to commentsThough Wilson’s sacking was pretty brutal, it wasn’t just down to that Leinster game; Glasgow had a lot of 2nd half collapses that season, in the URC and Europe, and only just scraped into the playoffs. Franco Smith has definitely been an improvement, some players are delivering far more than they did under Wilson.
2 Go to commentsjesus - that front 5!
1 Go to commentsShould be an absolute cracker of a game! Will be great to see DuPont & Ntamack in tandem once again🔥
1 Go to commentsBest team ever…. To have played? These guys are still pressure chokers. Came nowhere when it counted. What a joke
75 Go to commentsMusk defends anonymous terrorism, fascism, threats against individuals and children etc etc But a Rugby club account….lock ‘em up!!!
1 Go to commentsActually the era defining moment came a few years earlier. February 2002 to be precise, when Michael D Higgins as finance minister at the time introduced his sports persons tax relief bill to the dial. As the politicians of the day stated “It seems to be another daft K Club frolic born in Kildare amongst the well-paid professional jockeys with whom the Minister plays golf” and that the scheme represented “a savage uncaring vision of Ireland and one that should be condemned”. The irfu and Leinster would be nowhere near the position they are in today without this key component of the finances.
5 Go to commentsIt is crystal clear that people who make such threats on line should be tried and imprisoned. Those with responsibility in social media companies who don’t facilitate this should be convicted. In real life, I have free speech to approach someone like Reinach and verbally threaten him. I am risking a conviction or a slap but I could do it. In the old days, If someone anonymously threatened someone by letter the police would ask and use evidence from the postal system. Unlike the Post, social media companies have complete instant and legal access to the content in social media. They make money from the data, billions. Yet, they turn a blind eye to terrorism, Nazi-ism and industrial levels of threats against individuals including their address and childrens schools being published online all from ananoymous accounts not real people. They claim free speech. Free speech for anonymous trolls/voilent thugs threatening people under false names? The fault is with the perps but also social media companies who think anonymous personas posting death threats constitutes free speech.
2 Go to commentsSo if this ain’t the best Irish team ever then who exactly is? I don’t remember any other Irish team being this good & winning a series in the Land of the Long White Cloud. Yes I may rip them often for 8 X QF RWC exits & twice not even making it to the QF, but they’re a damn good team who many think can only improve, including me!
75 Go to commentsNot a squeek out of Leinster for weeks about this match. So quiet. The first team have been quitely building for this encounter under Nienaber’s direction. All fresh, all highly motivated. They are expecting a season’s best performance from Northhampton. They will match that. They will be fresher and apparently they will have 80,000 out of the 83,000 shouting for them. I do expect Northhampton to turn up big time. Not to be missed. On a tangent it is evident how the loss of a few Premiership teams has in some respect helped other Premiership teams and England. More quality over less teams makes the teams better, which has a knock on effect on England. Not the only factor contributing to England’s rise but one of them.
5 Go to commentsOur very own monster teddy bear Ox😍💪
17 Go to commentsThis is might be the most generalised, entitled, patronising, out-of-pocket cultural indictment on a group of people you’ll ever see on what is supposedly a sports publication. I can only assume the author is weak like a woman or homosexual. I’m feeling an incredible range of emotions but I am not quite sure how to express them. I might go beat up a hockey player - assuming that’s okay with Duane and the boys? 🙂
9 Go to commentsBest thing the Welsh clubs could do is apply to join Gallagher prem surely be more exciting matches for there support than they have now.
2 Go to commentsRugbyPass writers are useless! you guys should get a real job because you all suck at writing about rugby!!!
9 Go to comments