Paul the Super Rugby Oracle's Round 5 Tips: Please No More Draws This Weekend
Rugby Pass stats guru Paul Neazor weighs up this weekend’s round of Super Rugby matches and reveals his tips.
Round 4 was a tough weekend for Paul Neazor, whose picks were scuppered by two weird draws. First Joe Pietersen sliced a simple penalty kick wide to consign the Sharks to a draw against the Bulls, then hours later Ihaia West made a kick from a near-identical position on the field to secure a draw for the Blues against the Reds. Losses to the Sunwolves and Brumbies also put a dent in Paul’s record, which now stands at 24/33 (24/29 if you discount his bogey team the Blues). In percentage terms, he has fallen from a 79% tipping record to 73%. If it falls below 70% after Round 5 we may be forced to stop referring to Paul as an Oracle.
Hurricanes vs Kings
Last time these sides met the Hurricanes scored half a dozen tries against the Kings at Wellington and Beauden Barrett (pictured) kicked a whole lot of goals. The same thing should happen again this week, except Barrett may not do all the goal-kicking. The Hurricanes are starting to look like a team that can challenge for a playoff spot while the Kings look like one intent on locking up the wooden spoon in record time. The visitors have no backline punch at all, which is never a good look against the Hurricanes, and if they can stay within 25 points it might be regarded as a satisfactory effort.
Pick: Hurricanes (13 and over)
Chiefs vs Force
Fatigue could be the biggest factor in this match – the Chiefs return home three days before the game having played each of their last three matches more than 10,000km from the previous one. They also achieved in three weeks what it took Ferdinand Magellan’s crew three years to accomplish – a circumnavigation of the globe. That’s a lot of threes. The Force only have to worry about finding ways to score points in multiples of five rather than three; it has been a problem so far in 2016. Despite being tired, you can expect the Chiefs to come roaring out of the blocks and try to run up the biggest score possible inside an hour, before concentrating more on defence as the players start to fade. The home side should win but don’t expect pretty.
Pick: Chiefs (12 and under)
Rebels vs Highlanders
While both sides have 3-1 records going into this match, they have been achieved in different ways against very different opposition. The Rebels have been clinical in every match, doing little things right and taking their chances. But they haven’t played anyone of consequence yet – most everyone would have killed for their fixture list in the first month. The Highlanders have won by taking chances in a flash – if a gap is there, seven points may well be on the other side. They have beaten three serious playoff contenders already, and in two of those matches have run them ragged. The visitors should win by a fair old margin.
Pick: Highlanders (13 and over)
Sunwolves vs Bulls
The Sunwolves had their best shot at a win all season last week and while they hung in for the first half, the Rebels brushed them aside in the second. The Bulls are below par this season but should be good enough to win this one, although they do need to be a little careful over the first hour or so.
Pick: Bulls (13 and over)
Cheetahs v Brumbies
The Brumbies copped almost every rough call going last week (although I don’t consider the red card one of them) and in the end took a fairly big loss. Stephen Larkham won’t be happy, Stephen Moore wasn’t happy during the game and the rest of the team will catch that drift. The Cheetahs lost to the Lions and, by halftime, threatened to sink without trace. The Brumbies should take this one by plenty.
Pick: Brumbies (13 and over)
Sharks vs Crusaders
This is one of the trickiest games to pick this week, between two teams of contrasting styles. The Sharks don’t do much in a game except defend well – especially after halftime – and kick most of their goals. It’s been good enough for three wins and a draw. The Crusaders have lost one but have impressed in their two subsequent wins. Their backs need to step up, and if they do the visitors should have enough to get up. But I’m not going to rush to the TAB on this one, especially if Marius Jonker is to be TMO – in that case, expect a wild decision to play a big part in deciding the outcome in favour of the home side.
Pick: Sharks (12 and under)
Jaguares vs Stormers
The Jaguares are getting the hang of most things about Super Rugby, but as yet they haven’t shown an understanding of how 15 solid performances might well be better than 15 flashy ones. The Stormers already understand the principle; that’s how they’ve approached Super Rugby for ten years. This season they have an almighty forward pack that has bossed everyone, especially at the lineouts, and decent kickers who aren’t missing often. That combination, allied to sound defence, should get them up at Buenos Aires although I’m keen to see if the Jaguares play it a little closer to the chest.
Pick: Stormers (12 and under)
Reds vs Waratahs
Few would have expected these two sides to come into this game with one win between them (by the Waratahs against the Reds in the first round) and a bunch of disappointing losses. Nobody would have expected the Waratahs to be needing a win here to keep the Rebels in sight; nobody would have expected the Reds to go into the match thinking (with reason) that they could beat the Waratahs forwards up. The Reds are still likely to cop a sixth straight belting from their interstate rivals, who will have Bernard Foley back to provide stability at first-five and points off the tee.
Pick: Waratahs (13 and over)
Comments on RugbyPass
It couldn’t have been Ryan Crotty. He wasn’t selected in either World Cup side - they chose Money Bill instead. And Money Bill only cared about himself, and that manager he had, not the team.
25 Go to commentsYawn 🥱 nobody would give a hoot about this new trophy. End of the day we just have to beat Ireland and NZ this year then they can finally shut up 🤐
13 Go to commentsTalking bout Ryan Crotty? Heard Crotty say in a interview once that SBW doesen't care about the team . He went on to say that whenever they lost a big game, SBW would be happy as if nothing happened, according to him someone who cares would look down.. Personally I think Crotty is in the wrong, not for feeling gutted but for expecting others 2 be like him… I have been a bad loser forever as it matters so much to me but good on you SBW for being able to see the bigger picture….
25 Go to commentsThis sounds like a WWE idea so Americans can also get excited about rugby, RUGBY NEEDS A INTERNATIONAL CALENDER .. The rugby Championship and Six Nations can be held at same time, top 3 of six nations and top 3 of Rugby championship (6 nations should include Georgia AND another qualifying country while Fiji, Japan and Samoa/Tonga qualifier should make out 6 Southern teams).. Scrap June internationals and year end tours. Have a Elite top six Cup and the Bottom 6 in a secondary comp….
13 Go to commentsThe rugby championship would be even stronger with Fiji in it… I know it doesen’t fit the long term plans of NZ or Aus but you are robbing a whole nation of being able to see their best players play for Fiji…. Every second player in NZ and AUS teams has Fijian surnames… shame on you!!! World rugby won’t step in either as France and England has now also joined in…. I guess where money is involved it will always be the poor countries missing out….
77 Go to commentsNo surprise there. How hard can it be to pick a ball off the ground and chuck it to a mate? 😂
2 Go to commentsSometimes people just like a moan mate!
1 Go to commentsexcellent idea ! rugby needs this 💪
13 Go to comments9 Brumbies! What a joke! The best performing team in Oz! Ditch Skelton for Swain or Neville. Ryan Lonergan ahead of McDermott any day! Best selection bolter is Toole … amazing player
12 Go to commentsI like this, but ultimately rugby already has enough trophies. Trying to make more games “consequential" might prove to be a fools errand, although this is a less bad idea than some others. Minor quibble with the title of the article; it isn’t very meaningful to say the boks are the unofficial world champions when it would be functionally impossible for the Raeburn trophy not to be held by the world champions. There’s a period of a few months every 4 years when there is no “unofficial” world champion, and the Raeburn trophy is held by the actual world champions.
13 Go to commentsIts a great idea but one that I dont think will have a lot of traction. It will depend on the prestige that they each hold but if you can do that it would be great. When Japan beat the Boks (my team) I was absolutely devestated but I wont deny the great game they played that day. We were outclassed and it was one of the best games of rugby I have seen. Using an idea like this you might just give the the underdog teams more of an opportunity to beat the big teams and I can absolutely see it being a brilliant display of rugby. They beat us because they planned for that game. It was a great moment for Japan. This way we can remove the 4 year wait and give teams something to aim for outside of World Cup years.
13 Go to commentsHi, Dave here. Happy to answer questions 🥰
13 Go to commentsDon’t think that headline is accurate. It’s great to see Aus doing better but I’m not sure they’ve shown much threat to the top of the table. They shouldn’t be inflating wins against the lousy Highlanders and Crusaders either.
3 Go to commentsSuch a shame Roigard and Aumua picked up long term injuries, probably the two form players in the comp. Also, pretty sure Clarke Dermody isn’t their coach. Got it half right though.
3 Go to commentsOh the Aussie media, they never learn. At least Andrew Kellaway is like “Woah, yeah it’s great, but settle down there guys” having endured years of the Aussie media, fans, and often their players getting ahead of themselves only to fall flat on their faces. Have the “We'll win the Bledisloe for sure this year!” headlines started yet? It’s simple to see what’s going on. The Aussie teams are settled, they didn't lose any of their major players overseas. The Crusaders and Chiefs lost key experienced All Blacks, and Razor in the Crusaders case, and clearly neither are anywhere near as strong as last year (The Canes and Blues would probably be 3rd & 4th if they were). The Highlanders are annually average, even more so post-Aaron Smith and a big squad clean out. The two teams at the top? The two nz sides with largely the same settled roster as last year, except Ardie Savea for the Canes. They’ve both got far better coaches now too. If the Aussies are going to win the title, this is the year the kiwi sides will be weakest, so they better take their chance.
3 Go to commentsThe World Cup has to be the gold standard, line in the sand. 113 teams compete for what is the opportunity to make the pool stages, and then the knockout games for the trophy. The concept is sound. This must have been the rationale when the World Cup was created, surely? But I’m all for Looking forward and finding new ways for the SH to dominate the NH into the future. The autumn series needs a change up. Let’s start by having the NH teams come south every odd year for the Autumn/Spring series games?
13 Go to commentsWhat’ll happen when the AI models of the future go back in time and try to destroy the AI models of the past standing in their way of certain victory?
44 Go to commentsThanks, Nick. We (Seanny Maloney, Brett and I) just discussed Charlie as a potential Wallaby No 8, and wondered if he has truly realised how big he is in contact (and whether he can add 5 kg w/o slowing down). Your scouting report confirms our suspicions he has the materiel. No one knows if he has the mentality (as Johann van Graan said this week about CJ, Duane and Alfie B) to carry 10-15 times a game.
57 Go to commentsHe would be a great player for the Stormers, Dobbo should approach the guy.
3 Go to commentsGood article. A few years back when he was playing for the Cheetahs, he was a quiet standout for exactly the seasons stated here. I occasionally get to see his games in the UK, and he has become a more complete player and in many ways like an Irish player. His work ethic is so suitable to the Leinster game. I wonder if Rassie would have him listed somewhere.
3 Go to comments